2017 Rookie Pick Trade Value Chart

Zach Bahner

Welcome to the frequently bastardized, occasionally plagiarized, original dynasty Rookie Pick Value chart. This is the fourth and final version of this rookie pick trade value chart. After 2013, 2014, and 2015 versions, I decided I wasn’t going to update it again, but here I am!

Basically, the reason for no longer creating updates on the chart is this – it doesn’t really change much. Even having a year where rookies go a bit higher or lower doesn’t make a large impact on the overall historical value, with the exception of Trent Richardson. That flop has been the single worst outlier in the last 10 years, and his picks are excluded from the chart every year.

This final version includes 50 drafts, some of which date back to 2009. Before we get into the chart, let’s get some things out of the way that I have to say every year either in the article or comments section.

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  1. No, this is not the be all, end all of rookie picks. I don’t even agree with how highly valued picks are. I think it’s ridiculous to spend a top 40 pick on a player who hasn’t even played a down of NFL football.
  2. The formula for this is pretty simple. Take the ADP for a pick and divide it by the ADP of the pick below it. Multiply that by the quantity (value of the early pick * .95). Here’s an example. Pick one (24.08) divided by pick two (32.74)  times the quantity (value of pick one (1000) *.95) equals 698.
  3. You can do the exact same thing I just did above for any veteran player. Just change one of the picks for the player’s ADP using the fantastic ADP available here at DLF. You will end up finding the top players in ADP are going to yield untradeable results with this method. This is where the chart loses its usefulness.
  4. Unfortunately, there aren’t enough drafts available with IDP players to make a chart that is useable enough with more than four rounds. I really wish there was, too.

2017 rookie trade value chart 1000

Far and away the biggest difference you will see is the change to the top pick in the chart. I started with 1000 instead of 3000 like years past. The reason is because it yields numbers that are easier to use. It’s easier to look at and see pick 1.12 is 13.9% of the value of 1.01 when the values are 1000 and 139 than when they are 3000 and 416. The second reason is nobody likes Jimmy Johnson anyway.

As you can see, not much has changed with the difference in relative value from pick to pick except the 1.01 has again gone up. I can’t wrap my head around it. The 1.01 is equal in value to the 1.08, 1.09, 1.10,  1.11, 1.12, and 2.01. There’s no way I’d take Corey Davis or Leonard Fournette over John Ross, Alvin Kamara, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Kareem Hunt unless I couldn’t fit them all on my roster. Actually, it’s kind of insane to me that Smith-Schuster is going over D’Onta Foreman and Samaje Perine, but that’s an entirely different article.

The best utility for this chart is in trading down. The way the dynasty community as a whole values top picks makes for great opportunities to trade down. As mentioned above, the last five picks in the first round and first pick in the second round have nearly identical perceived value to the top overall pick. I doubt there are actually many people willing to give up that much in a trade to the top, but it is damning indeed.

Each year’s crop of rookies are going to be just a little different than the rest. This chart isn’t a rigid way to look at picks, but a general overview of how things have gone in the past and may go in the future. Look at Fournette and Davis as examples. Both are going higher than the typical 1.01 ADP, so that tells you that picks 1.01 and 1.02 are both going to be more expensive to acquire than the chart would indicate. In fact, there first place where you might find any kind of a discount would be pick 1.07. Every pick above that has a player with an ADP lower than the chart indicates.

So, please use this chart to suit your purposes. There are some fantastic utilities for it. I have really enjoyed working this thing out on a nearly yearly basis. Unless drafting tendencies drastically change, this should stand the test of time and remain useable for years to come.

If you love it, great. If you hate it, you probably listen to Miley Cyrus and drink lite beer. I’ll be sitting here drinking my delicious Chapman’s Wry American Imperial Red Rye and listening to Hansen like a real grown up.

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Related Resources

Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Dynasty Rookie ADP

MFL Rookie ADP

DLF 2017 Rookie Draft Guide

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