Rookie SWOT: Zay Jones

Mike Valverde

Editor’s Note: DLF is proud to bring you an annual staple series  – the Rookie SWOT.  These articles cover the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved with rookies now that they’ve been drafted. Make sure you check out the DLF Rookie Draft Guide for all the information you need to dominate your rookie drafts.

Name: Zay Jones
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Buffalo Bills
College Team: East Carolina Pirates
Draft Status: Round Two, No. 37 Overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Height: 6’2’’
Weight: 201 Pounds
Hands: 9’’
Arm Length: 32 1/2’’
Bench Press (225 LBS): 15 Reps
40-Yard-Dash: 4.45 Seconds
3-Cone-Drill: 6.79 Seconds
20-Yard-Shuttle: 4.01 Seconds
Vertical Jump: 36.5 Inches
Broad Jump: 133 Inches

Strengths

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Zay Jones is two parts of what I like in a wide receiver – someone who can catch and one who has the toughness to take on any defender in his way. He also comes from a long line of family athletes, most notably his uncle Jeff Blake was the quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals while his father played linebacker for the Dallas Cowboys in the 1990’s. Also, don’t forget about his brother Cayleb who played with both Houston and Arizona.

Make no mistake about it, Zay is going to make a name for himself. With the Pirates, he set the NCAA record for most receptions in a career (399) and the single-season record with 158 catches in 2016 (for 1,746 yards and eight touchdowns).

Jones will work over the middle without breaking a sweat and knows how to protect the ball when defenders come crashing in. He is also not afraid to go in like a battling ram and take on players who seem to be on the attack. He has tremendous high point skills and will win the 50/50 ball more often than not. He also has great footwork when it comes to sideline balance. Jones has the will to succeed in any situation and has the tremendous focus to get the job done. The Bills will also be able to put him anywhere on the field. He has experience both in the slot and on the wing.

Weaknesses

Vertical push. Jones struggles when it comes down to pushing the top off defenses. He has a difficult time separating himself from coverage. Jones will often battle at the line of scrimmage as defenders will press and has shown he can’t get a consistently clean release. He also doesn’t show good fluidity when going in and out of breaks and often times can’t shake his defender.

His yards after the catch also seem to be problematic due to his weak frame – he could only average 10.7 yards per catch (158 catches in 2016, but only four (2.5%) were 35+ yards). He will need to get better as a blocker and not drop the ball because of lack of focus. How good is he? He put up huge numbers in a weaker conference in an aerial attacking offense and that’s difficult to project.

Opportunities

Going to the Buffalo Bills is an excellent calling for Jones. He joins Sammy Watkins, who will take off nearly all the pressure and has an underrated quarterback in Tyrod Taylor. With seeing just single coverage most games, he should excel.

While Watkins is on the field, look for Taylor to hit Jones on slants and screens. When Watkins is off, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will probably use him in a variety of ways to get him going. I don’t know how well Jones will fit in the slot since he has struggled to get off of press coverage.

Another opportunity available is the lack of depth at the wide receiver position for the Bills – this should give Jones all the reps he will need to develop his game. Corey (Philly) Brown, Andre Holmes, Walt Powell, Kolby Listenbee, Dez Lewis, Corey Washington, and Brandon Tate are the only other options outside of Charles Clay.

Threats

The main threat is likely Holmes. He was brought in to be the starter as a free agent prior to the Bills drafting Jones. Holmes is a mammoth receiver at 6’4” and is a huge red zone threat. Matching their skill set, Jones is the better receiver, but he is not a veteran like Holmes and Dennison may want to bring Jones along slowly.

Another obstacle could be the offense itself. Dennison likes to employ two-tight end sets and runs the ball. Also, Taylor can scoot as well. All of these options will hurt Jones in his opportunities. The biggest statistical number killer, however, will be Sammy Watkins.

There is also the multitude of relatively unknown receivers who could breakthrough at any given moment. Listenbee showed some potential last season and the rest are all young and hungry.

Short-Term Expectations

It will come down partly to how the Buffalo Bills use Jones in their system and how quickly he can develop. It won’t be a season where you will get much production out of him. The Bills just don’t employ the offense to carry two wide receivers in high statistical numbers. However, all this means is you can probably grab Jones at a cheaper rate than other wide receivers going to other offenses. Jones will pay off in the long run. Expect a long-term return on investment (ROI) than a short one, but you get repaid by spending less money.

Long-Term Expectations

Jones comes into a good offense with a lot of future at the skill positions. LeSean McCoy is only 28 years old, which means he has at least two more seasons on the horizon. With Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins hopefully only getting better, this could easily turn into a two wide receiver offense – think Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. I believe Zay Jones has an arrow that only points north as far as production goes. Now, the tricky part will be getting Dennison on board to ditch the two tight end set and open up the passing game.

NFL Comparison

I see Jones as being close to either Anquan Boldin or Roddy White. Even though Jones may drop some balls, he has sticky hands like Boldin and White. All three have similar body sizes. When it comes to speed, White and Jones both ran a 4.45 forty. Boldin ran a 4.71 so his size and skill set is a better comparison. All three made a living running strong routes and outmuscling defenders. Also, both receivers struggle in getting yards after the catch. All can also go over the middle and be aggressive when it comes to contact.

Projected Range for Rookie Drafts

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Jones is going anywhere between the early-to-mid second and early third round. He is currently going as the 15.6 pick in rookie drafts and 109 overall in dynasty leagues as the sixth rookie wide receiver off the board after Corey Davis, Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, John Ross and Curtis Samuel. Even though there are several receivers ahead of him, Jones could be the second best among all these receivers when all is said and done.

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mike valverde
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