2017 IDP Projections: Carolina Panthers
I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. Â So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. Â I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.Â
Notes
The Carolina Panthers are an interesting case. Back in 2015, they were one of the dominant defenses in football and went to the Super Bowl. In 2016, they were fairly lukewarm at best, and now people view them with scepticism if not outright distrust. Their best player is a question mark after horrific concussion issues, and even the offense is an unknown given the indications they’re revamping it significantly.
Against all the uncertainty, the Carolina stat crew is a big plus point. Last year they were the fourth ‘best’ crew in terms of awarding tackles which is obviously a boon to all their IDPs. So, should we be investing in Panthers or not?
Stars
Luke Kuechly, LB
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Number one. Of all linebackers and all IDPs. That’s my starting point. I know he’s had issues with the worst injury of all and I wouldn’t blame him for walking away entirely. However I believe he’ll come back as good as ever – the finest coverage linebacker in the NFL, an elite player against the run, and instincts as good as they get. I think Kuechly comes good and zooms right back to the top  of fantasy linebackers in 2017.
Key stats:Â 998 snaps, 88 solo tackles, 52 assists, three sacks, nine passes defended, three INTs.
Kawann Short, DT
It’s very strange that the hype appears to have slowed down for an interior player with 17 sacks and 66 solo tackles over the last two seasons. Only ten total players have managed that, and Aaron Donald and Short are the only tackles on the list. Short is the star of the line on a really good unit and that’s not changing. Short is my #4 tackle for 2017 and an elite player for DT-required leagues.
Key stats:Â 682 snaps, 31 solo tackles, 21 assists, six sacks, three passes defended.
Starters
James Bradberry, CB
Bradberry and Darryl Worley look to be the clear lead dogs for corner snaps, and given how good the linebackers are against the pass they’re both likely to be fairly productive. Bradberry is my choice for the better IDP option because he’s much weaker against the run and he’ll be run at more often with sweeps, off-tackle plays; and likely screens. He’s my 13th corner for 2017.
Key stats:Â 893 snaps, 44 solo tackles, 13 assists, 13 passes defended, two INTs.
Kurt Coleman, S
There was a fair amount of buzz in the off-season about the Panthers drafting a rookie, but it’s clear Coleman is a firm favourite – and only nine safeties had more tackles in the run game in 2016. I expect Coleman to again be serviceable, but not elite. He’s my #14 safety.
Key stats:Â 959 snaps, 53 solo tackles, 28 assists, two sacks, nine passes defended, five INTs.
Useful
Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson, LB
I’ve been #TeamThomas for a long time but at this stage I just can’t see him playing another 1,000 snap season at age 34. This is clearly a situation to watch in preseason, but for now it’s a bit of a no-man’s-land in my system with neither of them being great. I have Davis still very useful as the 21st linebacker and Shaq rather less so as #98. It’s entirely possible those are swapped over, but either way they should split time.
Davis key stats:Â 834 snaps, 77 solo tackles, 35 assists, three sacks, six passes defended, three INTs.
Thompson key stats:Â 394 snaps, 33 solo tackles, 16 assists, three passes defended, one INT.
Charles Johnson and Julius Peppers, DE
These two remind me of the movie Bubba Ho-Tep. They were both great in their day but that was a while ago. Even so we’re all looking forward to their crazy adventure together.
Anyway – regardless of age I liked both players last season and I think they’ve got a decent chance to produce again. Steve Wilks has been there for a long time and had as much a hand in the success of the edge rushers in their scheme as Sean McDermott did. I’ve got Johnson as Top Dog (21st-ranked end) with Peppers the supporting act (45th-ranked end) but that’s very flexible and may move around. Regardless I like one of them to be usable in deeper leagues at a bargain price.
Johnson key stats:Â 845 snaps, 31 solo tackles, 20 assists, ten sacks, three passes defended.
Peppers key stats:Â 621 snaps, 22 solo tackles, 14 assists, seven sacks, two passes defended.
Darryl Worley, CB
As above, both Worley and Bradberry are likely to again get a heavy workload. It’s very possible Worley produces as the better player. It depends on personal development of the two to a certain extent. Currently he’s my 28th-ranked corner.
Key stats:Â 725 snaps, 52 solo tackles, 21 assists, one sack, nine passes defended, two INTs.
Summary
As per the last couple of years, the linebacker situation is going to receive all the attention and that’s pretty justified. But there are also some other really nice pieces on this team who just aren’t quite as famous for their names. The stat crew is a clear advantage too and it’s also worth watching how Vernon Butler is used as a dark horse IDP.
Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.
Thanks for reading.
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