Recently, I was studying the latest dynasty ADP looking for players I considered either overvalued or undervalued at the current startup price tag. While quite a few stood out in each category, I finally opted to do some crowdsourcing and ask my Twitter followers for their thoughts.
I began with the quarterback position and this question on Twitter.
Here’s May’s DLF dynasty ADP (QBs)
Name one player who is overvalued, one who is undervalued. pic.twitter.com/ClFb7lTg2P
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 26, 2017
Fortunately, I received a great deal of feedback. So much so, that this article series was born. Here are the results from this question:
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As a rookie, Prescott was one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 season, taking over for an injured Tony Romo and leading the Cowboys back into the playoffs. Prescott was not overly flashy and didn’t put up huge passing numbers, but did enough to finish as QB6 on the season. This would seem to make his QB9 ADP reasonable but he was the most popular target as being overvalued. The Dallas offensive line, recently considered the best in the league, took a big hit this off-season and the team added no significant offensive weapons for their quarterback. It will be difficult for Prescott to repeat his rookie season performance.
The former top overall pick, Winston is young and has perceived upside. He’s also just been handed some new options to get the ball to, namely tight end OJ Howard, wide receiver Chris Godwin and running back Jeremy McNichols. Should this be enough to push Winston to the QB4 spot in our ADP though, considering his best seasonal finish is QB13 during his rookie season? The voters say no as he received the second-most number of overvalued votes.
Carr is another young signal caller whose dynasty ADP has been elevated this off-season. Like Winston, he has yet to produce a Top-12 fantasy season at his position, yet he is being drafted among the top five quarterbacks. Blessed with two top receivers and the top offensive line in football, Carr will have the opportunity to continue to grow, both as a player and in dynasty value. The likely concern for dynasty players pegging him as overvalued is he’s being drafted near his ceiling.
The Eagles offense was one of the biggest disappointments in 2016 and their rookie quarterback Wentz finished as the QB24 despite playing all 16 games. The Philly running game is in shambles and Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham have both been blacklisted by dynasty owners. The good news for Wentz though is the team added veterans Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, along with rookies Mack Hollins and Shelton Gibson. This should help Wentz’s game, but I’m not sure if this is enough to draft him as QB14 over veterans like Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, and Philip Rivers, among others.
Currently being drafted as the QB3, there are some concerns about Wilson continuing his status as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the game. Although he finished as QB10 last year, Wilson does have a pair of overall QB3 seasons, along with a QB8 campaign on his resumé. Although the Seahawks continue to make changes in the running game, adding former Packer Eddie Lacy most notably, Wilson’s pass-catchers will essentially be the same as they have been the past two seasons. Wilson is yet another player currently being drafted at his ceiling.
Coming off a career year, Ryan finished as the QB2 last season and his ADP rank climbed from QB14 this time last year to his current rank of QB8. While the offense surrounding Ryan will remain largely the same, he has lost his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, the new head coach of the 49ers. This loss can’t be overstated and it will be a long-shot for Ryan to even match his career high numbers of passing yards or touchdowns.
Newton suffered through one of the worst seasons of his career in 2016, finishing as QB17. This was due to a career worst passing percentage, along with the decline in Newton’s involvement in the running game, totaling just 359 yards and five scores on 90 rushes. While those can be viewed as an anomaly compared to his production in other years, it is also fair to expect Newton’s rushing stats to decline as he ages and takes more hits. Factor in the addition of dual-threat rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel and this offense should look very different in 2016. I’m not sure that’s a good thing for Newton’s fantasy numbers. He’s still being drafted as the QB7, but several still felt uncomfortable with that draft capital.
Others Receiving Votes:
Ben Roethlisberger (2), Kirk Cousins (2), Andrew Luck (2), Marcus Mariota (2), Jared Goff (2), Eli Manning (2), Andy Dalton (1), Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
It was a rough 2016 season for Taylor, who was benched late in the season and barely survived a complete overhaul in Buffalo. Now back with a renegotiated contract, Taylor should hold down the starting gig for at least one more season. It is likely that uncertainty that has pushed him down to QB20 in our recent ADP despite finishes of QB9 (2016) and QB14 (2015). Taylor brought some stability to the position that the Bills had lacked in previous seasons, but that might not be enough. While he does look like a bargain at QB20, I don’t know many dynasty players comfortable with him as their clear starter, which seems to also describe the Bills current situation.
Stafford, a free agent following the 2017 season, is currently being drafted outside of the top 12 quarterbacks, although he’s only finished outside of that QB1 range once since 2011. Stafford didn’t let the surprise retirement of superstar receiver Calvin Johnson slow him down, turning Marvin Jones into an early season star and then relying on Golden Tate to be his new go-to receiver. I agree with the crowd here, and consider Stafford one of the safest options outside of the top five quarterbacks.
The Redskins starter Cousins has become the poster boy for being underrated. In his two full seasons under center, he’s finished as QB8 and QB5, followed by the team placing their Franchise Tag on him in each subsequent off-season. Perhaps it is that fact that the team and Cousins have been unable to reach an agreement on a long-term deal that has dynasty players somewhat concerned. Cousins is being drafted as the QB12, behind much older veterans Drew Brees and Tom Brady. This will be the season where Cousins will truly get to prove himself as he lost 1,000 yard receivers Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson, likely replacing them with Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson. If Cousins puts up huge numbers again, he’ll be in the driver’s seat as the Redskins likely cannot afford to once again place the tag on him. Rumors have him landing in San Francisco to suit up for Shanahan and the Niners. Maybe then he’ll finally get some respect from dynasty players.
Perpetually undervalued and, to be honest, ridiculed, is Dalton of the Bengals. He’s done just enough as an NFL starter to keep his job and lead his team to the playoffs, but he doesn’t seem like a quarterback who will ever be able to take the next step and become a true contender. Although he did peak with a QB5 performance in 2013, Dalton’s current draft position as QB16 is essentially in line with his typical fantasy finishes, which were recently QB18, QB18 and QB12 last season. Much like Taylor, Dalton is a player many want to defend, but few want to trot out as their top option in fantasy leagues.
I get it. Flacco being drafted as the QB27 is too low, making him, by definition, undervalued. Flacco has been a very reliable quarterback for years, playing a full 16-game slate in eight of his nine seasons. In those years though, he’s only finished in the top ten 10 fantasy quarterbacks just once, and that was back in 2010. Flacco is a very safe fantasy backup, especially if you only have to use him once per season when your starter in on bye. He’s not the type of backup with high upside that could potentially alternate starting weeks or even overtake your top option. Because of this, he’s barely worthy of a roster spot.
This is one I can really get on board with! Rivers is currently drafted as the QB17, behind Dalton, Wentz and several other questionable options. Like most other fantasy signal callers, Rivers had one stinker of a season, his being 2012 when he finished as the QB21. Outside of that, he’s been in the QB1 range in eight of his 13 seasons. Even last season, when the Chargers were decimated by injuries, including top receiver Keenan Allen, Rivers still posted a QB13 season. The team then added rookie Mike Williams with their first-round pick, giving Rivers yet another option in the passing game. In short, Rivers should at least be valued as highly as Ben Roethlisberger, who is being drafted nearly a full round earlier. Rivers offers starting quarterback scoring outside of the top 150 picks in a startup draft.
Others Receiving Votes:
Tom Brady (6), Ryan Tannehill (5), Carson Wentz (4), Drew Brees (4), Jared Goff (3), Eli Manning (3), Cam Newton (2), Marcus Mariota (2), Jimmy Garoppolo (2), Deshaun Watson (2), Dak Prescott (1), Matt Ryan (1), Ben Roethlisberger (1), Teddy Bridgewater (1), DeShone Kizer (1)
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