2017 IDP Projections: Arizona Cardinals
I believe that to properly analyse the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.
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Notes
James Bettcher goes into his third season as coordinator in Arizona and underneath Bruce Arians it’s a pretty settled team despite the players that left last season. After a disappointing season I expect the team to bounce back a little which should redress some disappointing 2016 performances.
You should note that the Cardinals were 30th in 2016 in terms of assisted tackles awarded so there’s a weakness there. They were fifth in solo tackles so it balances out but in leagues with high assist scoring all Arizona players should be downgraded slightly
Stars
Deone Bucannon, LB
The linebackers we want in IDP are no longer run-stopping bangers. Those guys are limited as the NFL shifts more and more pass-heavy. The true stars are ‘backers who are comfortable in space and can be effective on all downs. Bucannon is the poster child of this revolution and remains a top option for your IDP lineup.
Key stats: 1,017 snaps, 83 solo tackles, 21 assists, three sacks, seven passes defended, two INTs.
Starters
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way – Bethea is heading into his age 33 season. He’s not that old. It’s also worth noting he led the IDP world in snaps in 2016. So clearly he’s in good shape.
On top of that he’s landing in a sweet spot. With Tony Jefferson departed Bethea is the most physically imposing safety in Arizona. Budda Baker is 10 lbs lighter and Tyrann Mathieu 20 lbs. Bethea should be more used in the running game than either of them. He’s the #20 safety in my system – a solid starter in leagues with two starting safeties.
Key stats: 984 snaps, 64 solo tackles, 18 assists, two sacks, six passes defended, three INTs.
Justin Bethel, CB
The Arizona coaches have been talking him up recently as a solid starter opposite Peterson which is fantastic news. I want my corners to be the #2 on their own team with a sizeable gulf in ability between them. Bethel certainly satisfies this and I currently rate him as my #15 fantasy corner.
Key stats: 903 snaps, 53 solo tackles, five assists, one sack, 13 passes defended and one INT.
Useful
Robert Nkemdiche, DE
Nkemdiche was pretty useless as a rookie so why is he here on this list? Opportunity. With Calais Campbell gone and no major singings made on the defensive line there is a lot of opportunity available in the desert. He had injuries and maturity issues last season (according to Arians) but if he has those sorted out he should easily push past the likes of Corey Peters, Rodney Gunter and Frostee Rucker. Yes he could bust but this is a huge breakout opportunity. Assuming he steps up he is my #12 end.
Key stats: 848 snaps, 43 solo tackles, 15 assists, seven sacks, five passes defended.
Haason Reddick, LB
Rookies are overvalued in fantasy and this is especially true in IDP. I have Reddick as the #52 linebacker in 2017. Given I have 171 ranked that’s not too bad but it does mean he’s unlikely to be a good starter as a rookie. To put that into context how many of you were starting Kevin Minter last season? Not that many I hope and to all intents and Reddick is likely to be his direct replacement.
Key stats: 768 snaps, 58 solo tackles, 16 assists, two sacks, five passes defended, one INT.
Other
Oh Badger. For a while he was one of the most scintillating defensive players in the NFL but that slight frame of his just couldn’t hold up. As a result in 2016 he played a pure free safety role and was not very active in run support. He’s still a fine player and I hope he can get back to his old self but he’s a player to sell assuming you have a league mate who thinks he’s still the Honey Badger of 2015. He’s my #32 safety so he should be relevant but not a star.
Key stats: 681 snaps, 61 solo tackles, four assists, one sack, nine passes defended, two INTs.
Budda Baker, S
I really want Budda to be effective. He’s a fun player to watch and he’s got great attitude. And there’s the chance that he of course does manage to secure Mathieu’s old job. But against that he’s 5’10” and 195 lbs. I worry as much about his ability to hold up as Mathieu. Having said that it’s a good spot and he’s my #40 safety.
Key stats: 737 snaps, 59 solo tackles, nine assists, two sacks, five passes defended, one INT.
Patrick Peterson, CB
Some IDP fans still say Peterson is worth having because of his return scoring. He had 14 total return attempts in 2016 so it’s unlikely to be true. PP has turned into such a good cover corner that he’s too valuable to risk. That also means he’s not that targeted much. In 2016 he was targeted once every 8.5 coverage snaps. Second-least in the league. He’s not a player you want in almost any IDP league.
Key stats: 998 snaps, 38 solo tackles, nine assists, 13 passes defended, four INTs.
Summary
The Cardinals had their worst season since 2012 last year. Some are pessimistic about them but I expect them to improve across the board. If Nkemdiche and Reddick play to their talent levels it could be a very good defense. It’ll certainly be a fun one to watch
Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.
Thanks for reading.
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