Rookie SWOT: O.J. Howard

Brian Malone Posted On May 27, 2017

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Name: O.J. Howard

Position: Tight End

Pro Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

College Team: Alabama Crimson Tide

Draft Status: Round One, Pick No. 19 overall

Combine Review

Height: 6’6’’
Weight: 251 Pounds
Hands: 10”
Arm Length: 33.75’’
Bench Press (225 LBS): 22 Reps
40-Yard-Dash: 4.51 seconds
Vertical Jump: 30.0”
Broad Jump: 121”

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Video Highlights

Strengths

Athletic specimen: He’s no Vernon Davis, but he places solidly in the second tier of tight ends athletically. Think Tyler Eifert or Coby Fleener.
Run blocking: He’s ahead of most tight end prospects here. Multiple teams noted his run blocking prowess as one of the reasons he would be drafted early.
Flashes of dominance as a receiver: He torched Clemson for 208 yards and two touchdowns in the 2015 national title game.

Weaknesses

Lack of college production: He was never more than Alabama’s third receiving option, and he never topped 19 percent of the team’s receiving yards in a season. More troubling, he caught only seven touchdowns in his four-year career.
Size: He’ll need to bulk up to maintain an advantage as a run blocker in the NFL. Will he be able to add 7-8 pounds and maintain his trademark speed?
Nebulous doubts: His production and playing time decreased in his senior season. Does he have the work ethic and attitude to succeed in the more rigorous NFL?

Opportunity

Howard will be in a familiar third-fiddle role with the Buccaneers, as DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans figure to lead the team in targets.

But he’ll be in a better overall situation. Tampa Bay was a middle-of-the-pack passing offense in 2016, but Jameis Winston is only 23, and the team is maintaining continuity with head coach Dirk Koetter and offensive coordinator Todd Monken both returning.

Threats

Cameron Brate was a pleasant surprise in 2016. He helped nudge another athletic tight end, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, out of Tampa Bay, and Winston has loved him since Winston’s rookie season.

He’s been particularly effective in the end zone. He tied Evans with nine targets from inside the ten, and he converted those into seven catches for six touchdowns. Overall, Brate doesn’t have Howard’s upside, but he’s not going to easily cede his spot on the depth chart.

Then there’s Evans, who led the NFL with 173 targets in 2016, and Jackson, who should garner about 100 targets and a high number of air yards for the next year or two.

Short-term Expectations

Minimal. If Howard is a top-eight fantasy tight end in 2017, it’ll be because (1) Evans is injured; (2) Winston posts top-three quarterback numbers; or (3) Howard is actually a generational receiving talent who was stifled by Alabama’s game plan. None of these is particularly likely, and none alone is guaranteed to make Howard a viable play.

Long-term Expectations

Despite dynasty drafters’ disdain, tight ends drafted in the first round have a fairly strong history of NFL success. I expect Howard to be a contributor between the 20s by 2018. If Winston continues to grow and Howard turns into an end-zone threat, he could post top-six tight end numbers as the second option in a young, high-powered offense.

Rookie Draft Advice

According to DLF’s rookie ADP (and my own experience in rookie drafts), you’ll have to burn the 1.07 pick to guarantee Howard. Where possible, I’d rather trade back four to eight slots and take someone at another position. But if you’re stuck in the 1.07-1.09 range, Howard is a fine option.

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