Rookie SWOT: Aaron Jones
Name: Aaron Jones
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Green Bay Packers
College Team: University of Texas at El Paso
Draft Status: Round Five, Pick No. 182 Overall
Video Highlights
Combine Review
- Height: 5’9’’
- Weight: 208 Pounds
- Hands: 9 ½’’
- Arm Length: 32 ½’’
- Bench Press: 16 Reps
- 40-Yard-Dash: 4.56
- 20-Yard-Shuttle: 4.20
- 3-Cone: 6.82
- Vertical: 37.5’’
- Broad Jump: 127’’
Strengths
Jones is one of the most explosive running backs in this year’s draft class. He has a lot of wiggle and does a very job at moving laterally to avoid defenders. He’s exceptional at jump cuts, slide steps and slashing laterally into running lanes. Not only can he run with finesse but he can also finish runs by building up inertia and lowering his shoulder to drop the “boom” on defenders.
He’s a very effective receiver out of the backfield, having caught 71 balls for 646 yards and seven touchdowns during his collegiate career. His short-area quickness makes very dangerous in the open field and picking up yards after the catch. Although he’s not a consistent hands catcher, he does have the ability to make highlight reel contested catches when the opportunity arises.
Jones was highly productive in college, rushing for 1,773 yards and 17 touchdowns. He was a massive contributor to his team by owning a 45.28 percent market share of the offensive production, ranking him first in the nation.
Weaknesses
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He’s not a burner and doesn’t have the speed to blow by NFL caliber defensive backs, limiting his ability to breakout long gains. He also lacks the ideal size due to his slender frame, which inhibits his ability to absorb punishment.
Jones has a bad habit of not waiting for the play to develop before making his move and he also tends to dance in the backfield. There are concerns with his ability to protect the football since he fumbled the ball nine times during his collegiate career. Fumbling the football is one of the quickest ways for a running back to get benched. He experienced a magnitude of injuries in college, causing him to miss several games. He tore ligaments in his ankle, which caused him to miss the majority of the 2015 season. He also suffered rib and shoulder injuries while in college.
Opportunities
The Packers needed a pass-catching running back who is very dangerous when given the ball in space. Jones can easily fill the role as the team’s pass catching specialist out of the backfield. He will be paired with Aaron Rodgers, who will consistently provide accurate targets for Jones and could have the opportunity to become a PPR dynamo due to being part of a high volume passing attack. This is a grand opportunity for any running back.
Threats
The Packers drafted Jamaal Williams in the fourth-round of this year’s draft and more than likely the team is going to give him every opportunity to succeed due to his draft status. Williams is also a very talented running back and is a capable of taking over as the team’s bell cow.
Ty Montgomery, the incumbent starter from last season, will also take command of some of the workload out of the backfield. He is a very talented receiver, which could keep Jones off the field in passing situations.
The 2018 draft class is loaded with talent at running back and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Green Bay decided to draft another running back next year. Drafting a running back in next year’s draft could be a death nail to his stock, because it’s easy for teams to do away with their late round prospects for them to be able to roster their shiny new toys.
Short-Term Expectations
His performance in training camp is going to be very important and will determine how large of a role he will have within the offense. It appears that he has a good chance at taking over the pass catching role in Green Bay’s committee, making him a viable option in PPR leagues. He should compete for touches during his rookie season with the potential of growth going into his second year.
Long-Term Expectations
Jones’ career with the Packers will go down one of three paths. Path number one foresees him as the team’s feature back, owning a large market share of the snaps on first and second down along with being the go-to guy on passing downs. The second path portrays the image of him just being the team’s pass catching option out of the backfield, providing volatile fantasy production dependent on game flow and the number of targets he receives on a game-to-game basis. The third path has a dismal outlook, forecasting him as a journeyman backup running back who bounces from team to team.
The second path seems like the most likely scenario, considering he’s very talented and could be a perfect fit with the teams passing attack. The odds of him blowing up being a top ten talent in the league is highly unlikely but the odds of him fizzling out and becoming a run of the mill backup running back is just as unlikely.
NFL Comparison
His size, speed and agility draws comparisons to Giovani Bernard. Both players are smaller backs who are very explosive and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Bernard has made a career out of being the pass catching specialist for the Cincinnati Bengals with 187 receptions for 1,671 yards and six touchdowns during the course of his career. Jones will have the opportunity to provide similar results as Green Bay’s pass catching back and has the receiving chops to be fantasy relevant in PPR leagues even if he’s not the lead back for the Packers.
Projected Range for Rookie Drafts
Per DLF’s 2017 Rookie ADP, Jones is an early to mid third-round pick in rookie drafts with a 29.67 ADP. He is usually the 14th running back off the board and is generally a full round cheaper than teammate Jamaal Williams. Jones provides a lot of upside at a very palatable price tag and his pass catching prowess presents an elevated floor in PPR leagues. He’s a great developmental player to have on the backend of your roster or taxi squad.
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