The NFL Draft has transformed from a veritable meat market into a spectacle of Hollywood proportions in the past decade. First round draft prospects arrive via limousine and walk the red carpet. The second and third round still hold plenty of fanfare, as these likely NFL starters get a Friday night primetime television spot. These are players who were heralded in college and popped off the screen at the combine.
There is another group of players who are drafted on Saturday, when you’re busy coaching tee-ball practice or making a grocery run. There are no cameras in these homes to listen in to players being congratulated by the general manager or head coach when they are drafted. Sometimes the television crew doesn’t even announce these picks; they’re too busy breaking down the first round for the third day in a row. These players may not be as celebrated now, but it doesn’t mean they can’t become elite dynasty assets sometime in the future. After all, Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard, and Tom Brady were all drafted in the fourth round or later.
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I’ve filtered out a player at each position who could ascend to dynasty relevance if everything goes right. First up in this mini-series: Denver Broncos quarterback Chad Kelly.
Background
Chad is the nephew of NFL Hall of Famer, Jim Kelly. He was a four star recruit out of high school and committed to Clemson. After disagreements with the coaching staff and an off the field altercation, Kelly was dismissed from the Tigers’ program. He spent a year at East Mississippi Junior College, throwing 47 touchdowns and winning the junior college national championship. Kelly was then picked up by Ole Miss, where he threw for over 6,800 yards and 50 touchdowns in two seasons against stingy Southeastern Conference defenses.
Sounds like a kid who learned his lesson, righted the ship, and was surely a top-50 pick in the draft, right? Not quite. I neglected to share that Kelly had several other incidents between junior college and Ole Miss, including an arrest in Buffalo, New York, after threatening to bring an AK-47 into a bar. Kelly’s unpredictable off the field antics are solely responsible for his slide to Mr. Irrelevant status (pick 253) in the NFL Draft.
Why He’s a Potential Gem
I identified Kelly as a late round gem because if we only look at the player on the field, he would’ve easily been a third round pick or better in this class. After all, Kelly was the one feeding the ball to dynasty rookie darling, Evan Engram. If you’ve got the time, watch the Kelly clips below. You’ll see a player with a gunslinger mentality and strong mobility and escape-ability. There are flaws too, namely footwork when pressured and overconfidence in arm strength.
Intrigued?
Look at Kelly’s passing stats from 2015 and 2016.
And his rushing stats:
Kelly clearly peaked in 2015, although to be fair, his 2016 was cut short by a torn ACL. Even so, he set 25 school passing records in his two seasons, and remember, Eli Manning was a Runnin’ Rebel, too.
Unfortunately, due to the knee injury, Kelly was not ready to participate fully at the NFL combine. However, he did participate, nay, scorch the earth in the ESPN Sports Science quarterback drills. He posted the second highest score they have ever recorded, behind only Ben Roethlisberger. Watch here as Kelly demonstrates killer accuracy and anticipation (fast forward to 1:35 to see Kelly’s segment):
Another reason to like Kelly is the landing spot. It’s not inconceivable that he’ll get a shot at some point. The Broncos did just let another seventh-round pick, Trevor Siemian, start 14 games last season. Denver also doesn’t seem very committed to 2016 first round pick, Paxton Lynch. The former first round pick is already rumored to be behind Siemian in the battle for the starting job in 2017. If Lynch doesn’t win the job this season, then 2018 could shape up to be a potential three-way melee with a healthy Kelly thrown into the mix.
Conclusion
Kelly is ranked as the ninth highest rookie quarterback by the DLF Rookie Rankers, ranging from a high rank of fifth to a low rank of tenth. His rookie ADP is 57, which equates to a late fifth round pick in rookie drafts. Many leagues don’t even have five rounds in their rookie draft, so you may even be looking at a simple waiver claim to add Kelly to your team.
Although this series is called “Late Round Gems”, the frank truth is that Kelly is more likely to become cubic zirconia than a rose diamond. However, there is enough here to warrant speculative dynasty investment in deeper leagues, and most certainly in superflex formats.
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Completely agree on Kelly. He’s one of my favorite guys in the late rounds of superflex leagues.
Thanks for reading, Steve! I love guys like this late in rookie drafts. There’s zero expectation but you could end up printing money.
Looking forward to Kelly. I got him at 4.05, yes higher than needed, but I was high on him before this article and I didn’t want to lose the opp considering my team will need new QB blood in 2 years.
Hey Ryan, thanks for reading. Spending a 4th on Kelly is fine, I just wouldn’t spend a third, and I wouldn’t take him until Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky, and Kizer are gone.
There are no sure things that late in rookie drafts, and few players in that range have his upside. Hope it works out. I have a few shares myself!
