Concept Introduction – The Golden Year

TheFFGhost

Devy leagues have become increasing popular over recent years and we, as a community, are still trying to figure out how best to integrate them into the dynasty experience. For the most part we’ve figured it out quite well. Many leagues either hold separate devy drafts or weave the devy aspect into the rookie draft, allowing owners to select a devy player instead of a rookie on any given pick.

More often than not, everything goes as planned. However, there is one tricky situation that many commissioners haven’t fully thought through and where owners can see a nice bump in value if gone unchecked, a scenario which I have taken to calling a “Golden Year”.

A Golden Year occurs under a very specific, but not uncommon, set of circumstances in a start-up draft. This scenario occurs when a league is set up to hold the start-up, rookie and devy drafts separately. Who doesn’t want to draft three times within the span of a few weeks, right? This set-up appears natural at first glance as each following season would also see a separate rookie and devy draft, a common arrangement in devy leagues.

So, what’s the problem?

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The issue in this configuration has to do with the rookie draft in the start-up year. This specific draft is heavily overweighed in the value it presents. Since rookies aren’t factored into the start-up, they represent their own pool of players. What many fail to realize is that this pool is unlike any of the rookie drafts that will follow it because it will not be depleted by devy selections whereas each successive rookie draft will likely be missing at least one or more top players from the first round.

Why does this matter?

The answer here is simple, the value held within this one draft class is bound to be greater than any that follows it. All rookie players in this class can be accurately valued given any number of tools available through DLF. What can’t be accurately determined though is the value of future rookie draft picks due to the inability to know which, or how many, rostered devy college players will declare in a given year. This blind spot in our collective knowledge makes the value of future rookie draft picks much more variable than in the start-up rookie draft or, “The Golden Year”.

So how can owners take advantage of a Golden Year?

Again, the answer here is straightforward, collect as many early picks in the start-up rookie draft as possible, they are as the name implies, golden. Accumulating early rookie picks for middle to late round start-up picks is one way to do this. Another way to acquire these picks is to trade away start-up or even second year devy picks. Those devy picks, while valuable, have an added level of risk inherent to them as not only are owners unsure if a player will prove to hold their value while in college, but, if they decide to enter the NFL Draft, the owner will also be unsure if the player gets selected later than expected or if the player ends up on a team where their value implodes.

Trading a first round devy pick for a first-round rookie pick in a start-up significantly reduces the risk incurred by the owner. As opposed to assuming the risk that a college player may underperform, get injured or delay declaring for the NFL Draft, the owner must only deal with a rookie’s landing spot and fit with his new team. The owner acquiring a rookie pick is able to make a much more informed decision than the owner acquiring the devy pick in the trade.

As a commissioner how can I prevent this aberration in value from occurring?

There are a number of ways to prevent Golden Years from occurring in a league over which your commission. First, mix all drafts into a single player pool. This evens out the value right out of the gate. Owners may draft veterans, rookies and devy players according to league limits.

Second, hold a start-up draft which will include rookies and a separate devy draft which will allow your league’s devy aspect to get off and running as well. It must be noted that the potential exists here for a mini-Golden Year, or Silver Year, if you will. In this configuration, the initial season devy picks would be marginally more valuable than successive seasons as there will be no depletion in the devy pool. All devy players would be wide open and able to be drafted whereas the devy pool in Year Two and beyond would be depleted to a certain degree, depending on how many devy players declare for the NFL Draft. The possible value to be gained here is less than in a Golden Year, but it does exist. Both commissioners and owners would be wise to understand the impact such a set-up could deliver.

Third, make rookie draft picks a draftable commodity in a start-up draft. To be clear, I’m not referring to individual rookie players, but to draft picks (e.g. 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, etc.). What this configuration does is tie rookie picks to a veteran valuation. The rookie pool is then inextricably tied to value as determined by the start-up draft. The rookie pool is no longer an untethered economy unto itself in such a scenario.

Devy leagues have grown in popularity by leaps and bounds over the past few years. As a format, it is still getting its feet underneath it. Many commissioners are trying new ideas with the format, which is always encouraging for growth and maturity of the dynasty format as a whole. However, despite the best intentions of many commissioners, flaws in the format of some leagues can lead to exploitation by owners. I’m not trying to pass judgement on whether these flaws should be exploited or not, I have simply written this article to inform both commissioners and owners as to the possibilities before them.

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