Bargain Shopping: Mike Wallace

A lot of times in this series, I feel like I present some useful information, but it’s oftentimes boring, cut-and-dried stuff.

For example, in a recent installment on Willie Snead, the gist of the argument was this — Snead was, at the time, WR44, per our average draft position data (ADP), and he is a 24-year-old who has finished as WR32 and WR34 over the past two seasons. That alone — without factoring in the off-season trade of Brandin Cooks — makes Snead undervalued.

Again, it’s good, practical info, but it’s pretty straight to the point and a tad boring. Dynasty owners love chasing upside and pursuing the unknown — Snead is neither of those things.

Well, if you’re expecting me to go another route with this one, you’re so wrong. Similar to Snead, Mike Wallace has an ADP that makes very little sense. In fact, it makes a whole lot less sense than Snead’s ADP.

Here comes the mundane but actionable data: in seven of the last eight seasons, Wallace has been a top-30 fantasy wideout, yet he’s currently WR70 in our May ADP data. (Kudos to Eric McClung for that tidbit on the top-30 seasons.)

Let me repeat: Wallace has been a top-30 wideout in seven of his eight career seasons, and he’s going as WR70 right now, one spot in front of Cooper Kupp, a low-ceiling wideout in terms of playing style who is on what may be the worst offense in football.

Like I said, it makes very little sense. That alone should have you opening up your league page and starting the process of making an offer for Wallace.

Go ahead, I’ll give you a minute.

But the good feels don’t stop there as there is a chance Wallace’s ceiling is a bit higher than it was in 2016, his first year with the Baltimore Ravens.

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Successful Debut

Let’s recap that first season with the Ravens before we move on.

Prior to joining Baltimore, Wallace was a straight up nightmare with the Minnesota Vikings in 2015. He hauled in just 39 of 72 targets for 473 yards and two touchdowns in what was his age-29 season.

Simply put: the dude looked done.

As a result, his dynasty value tanked, dropping him to the 188th overall player and WR84 at this time a year ago. I was unaware 188 skill-position players populated the Earth, but apparently they do.

Where was I with this piece a year ago? That’s a valid question, and my public relations guy is crafting a canned statement as we speak.

Fortunately, while Wallace has climbed a few receivers in ADP, he’s still a smashing value. You’d think his price would rise significantly after he put up a WR22 season in 2016, but the good year didn’t have much of an impact on his value.

Losing a Key Cog

Now for the upside I hinted at earlier.

Steve Smith retired this off-season. Not only is it a massive loss for anyone who loved watching Smith compete his tail off and talk mad trash (I’m raising my hand), it is a big blow for the Ravens.

Old man Smith was still balling, and he saw 101 targets in 14 games last season. That means there are 101 looks up for grabs in an offense that ran the fourth-most plays last season.

Also, the Ravens lost fullback Kyle Juszczyk this off-season, opening up another 49 targets.

Because of this, Baltimore is actually a sweet go-to spot for value this off-season. Former first-round pick Breshad Perriman may get the keys to a starting role, and Dennis Pitta — who led tight ends in catches last season with 86 — is a great value option himself. But Wallace likely has the best short-term ceiling of any of them, and he’s quite a bit cheaper than Perriman, who is WR44.

Does Baltimore want to be near the league leaders in pass attempts for a second straight year? No. Did they add a stellar pass-catching back in Danny Woodhead? Yes. So Wallace shouldn’t see a huge uptick in targets this upcoming year, but he may see a few extra passes thrown his way. At a minimum, it’s hard to imagine him not getting at least a similar workload to the 116 targets he saw last season.

There’s a lot of safety here, and it’s honestly similar to the Snead situation. Wallace is a good receiver with a nice track record, and he is locked into a meaningful role. That noise you here is the sound of boxes being checked.

Let’s Make a Deal

So what will it cost you to acquire Wallace? Well, not a whole lot.

Per ADP, if you’re looking to make a wideout-challenge offer — a receiver-for-receiver deal — some of the pass catchers in his area are Kupp, Tyler Boyd, Quincy Enunwa, Marqise Lee, Kenny Stills and Josh Reynolds.

Looking at all positions, Wallace is the 152nd player overall. Players in that range include Eli Manning, Jamaal Charles, Philip Rivers, Jeremy Hill, Marlon Mack and Wayne Gallman.

Obviously, every Wallace owner will be different, but that gives you some ideas of what type of player you could offer for him in a one-for-one swap.

If you want to cash out a pick for Wallace, it looks like he’s worth a third-rounder based on where Mack and Gallman are going in rookie drafts.

In Conclusion

Wallace relies on speed to win, and he’s entering his age-31 season this fall. An aging speedster usually terrifies dynasty owners.

But it’s not scaring people off DeSean Jackson, who is currently WR47. Are Wallace and Jackson really all that different?

No, they’re not.

Both are 30, and they are receivers with comparable skillsets who are deployed in similar ways. Wallace out-produced Jackson by roughly 23 PPR points last season (Wallace had 31 more rushing yards and a two-point conversion, if you’re trying to do the math from the table above).

For the last time: Wallace’s ADP makes no sense.

Making splash moves is really fun, but completing an under-the-radar deal for a solid player who you can rely on for steady production is precisely the type of trade savvy dynasty owners make. Wallace can be a solid WR3-type to round out your starting lineup, he could serve as a depth option or he is a potential trade chip down the line.

No matter the situation with your roster, an undervalued player is attractive to us all. Maybe you’re in the midst of a rebuild, and while you agree that Wallace is undervalued, you don’t think a 30-year-old receiver is of much use to you. I don’t buy that.

Wallace looks like he’s in line for another solid campaign, and if he delivers his eighth top-30 fantasy wideout season in nine years, his value should rise again — even if it’s not a big jump — which will make him useful in trade. Maybe you deal away a third-round pick for Wallace now, and then you flip him to a contender mid-season for a second-rounder. That’s turning a nickel into dime, and in a rebuild, every penny is imperative.

Wallace’s ADP just doesn’t add up, and it makes him one of the best value targets in dynasty football.

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