Mike Williams seems to be the forgotten man at the top of this year’s rookie class. Despite being drafted ahead of every running back outside of Leonard Fournette, and being paired with one of the best in the game in Philip Rivers, it’s rare to see Williams breaking the top two or three of rookie rankings. Why is that? Has he simply been subjected to an unfair takedown in the dynasty community? Let’s explore Mike Williams’ dynasty value.
Name: Mike Williams
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Los Angeles Chargers
College Team: Clemson
Draft Status: Round One, Pick #7 Overall
Combine Review
- Height – 6’4″
- Weight – 218 lbs
- Hands – 9 3/8″
- Arm Length – 33 3/8″
- 40 yard dash – N/A
- Three cone drill – N/A
- Vertical Jump – 32.5 inch
- Broad Jump – 121.0 inch
Video Clip
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Strengths
- He’s tall, and has long gangly legs. Not only does he stand above defenders, he can leap over them too.
- Williams is not afraid to attack the ball and “go up and get it”. He tracks it well in the air, and is unafraid to dive or contort his body to secure it – despite missing a whole season with a neck injury in 2015. He only has eyes for the ball.
- His ‘presence’ is strong. He can be covered, and his quarterback won’t be afraid to throw the ball his way anyway. As a defender, you could be in tight coverage, but it might not matter. He uses his body well, and has strong hands to rip the ball away from defenders.
- With his strength comes the ability to break tackles and fall forward with the ball in his hands. He’s a powerful receiver.
Weaknesses
- Williams doesn’t have the quick-twitch explosion, acceleration and straight line speed we tend to fall in love with. This means he doesn’t usually win one-on-one sprints down the sidelines, and can be caught from behind as a runner.
- That same lack of explosiveness means he isn’t as refined as a route runner. He’s a little slower to turn, so doesn’t win that way. Because he “only has eyes for the ball”, it’s not too detrimental as it’s not where he wins, but it could catch up with him at the next level.
- With the inability to easily get open with routes, he deals with a lot of contested catches. That leads to a ‘drops’ simply, because he’s fighting for the ball. His game against Auburn in 2016 is a great example of that. He had nine catches for 174 yards, but defenders draped all over him all game – and could have had an even better day.
Opportunities
Mike will come in and immediately provide competition for Tyrell Williams. I know Tyrell had a great season last year and boasts outstanding metrics, but if he was locked in and solidified all-encompassing “WR1”, would the Chargers have added Mike this high? He should have the chance to line up on the outside immediately. Think of them as two great options for Rivers, as opposed to competitors for the same role. You’ll likely see Tyrell catching the bombs, and Mike hauling in short/intermediate throws.
Does this mean the team doesn’t believe in Keenan Allen? Probably not, but there’s no doubt the Chargers want to use Allen in the slot – he thrives there, and with the presence of the two Williams’, could look like his 2015 self.
The other main reason for a good opportunity in Los Angeles is simply that he’ll be on an offense commanded by Rivers. We don’t know for how long he’ll stick around, but as long as the long-time Charger is there, the team will score points.
Threats
The receivers mentioned above should have “dibs” on targets in the offense, as do the tight end duo of Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. While the dynasty community is going crazy for Henry (he’s the TE4 in our May ADP data) and his eight touchdowns last year, please sell your shares right now. Henry only had 36 catches on 53 targets. Gates had 53 catches in his worst season since 2012, with 40 more targets than the rookie. With the addition of Williams and return of Allen, are the targets going to go Henry’s way? Most certainly not. Anyway, I’m getting off topic. The point is – there are a lot of mouths to feed.
As well as in the passing game, Melvin Gordon established himself as a touchdown vulture last season after being labelled a runner who “can’t score touchdowns” in his first year. The truth is naturally somewhere in between, but using him at the goal line last year worked – so the Chargers might continue doing it. With Gordon’s breakout, they could simply run more in all areas of the field.
Short-term Expectations
With the other Williams and Allen already in place, it means the team shouldn’t have to rush their rookie onto the field. But, since his body is where he wins, why wouldn’t they utilize that? It seems fair to expect a 700+ yards, seven+ touchdown type of season from someone who has a NFL-ready body. The team likes to throw the ball, Rivers shows no hesitation in spreading the wealth, and I’d bank on Williams contributing early.
Long-term Expectations
His long-term upside could depend on the situation at quarterback after Rivers. While Rivers is there, all of his receivers are capable of huge seasons. Vincent Jackson, who is a similar player, had a few seasons of just over 1,000 yards and just under ten touchdowns. Williams could sit around there. Similarly, I don’t think he goes too far above and beyond there – which leads me to the next part of the profile.
NFL Comparison
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, who lists Williams as his number one receiver in the class, compares him to Dez Bryant:
“The big-bodied pass catcher uses his strength and power to win at the line and box out defenders at the catch point.”
I certainly see a little of Bryant’s game in the young wideout, and agree with the comparison if it’s about some of his skills (specifically the ones Brooks identified). However, he simply doesn’t have the game-breaking ability of Bryant, who has true speed. Williams falls behind in that area, and perhaps Lance Zierlein’s Plaxico Burress comparison is more apt. It’s not meant as a slight – Burress enjoyed a number of terrific seasons in his career, but I can’t see Williams being an ‘elite’ receiver who hits the top five-to-ten in dynasty rankings.*
Projected Range for a Rookie Draft
He is in the top six, but likely not in the top three. In the May ADP, he came in at fifth among rookies. In our rookie rankings, he also came in at number five – no higher than four, and no lower than six. That seems just right for me – Corey Davis, Fournette and Christian McCaffrey are the “safe” picks at the top, and it should be no surprise if Joe Mixon or Dalvin Cook come off boards before the second wideout. Williams is good value where he’s going, and great value anywhere after the top six.
*And that’s okay!
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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I keep finding myself feeling this guy is being under ranked, certainly not the sexy pick as some of the other rookies, but in most years he would easily be the wr1 of the class! Potentially great value at 1.5 or 1.6
Williams vs. Davis reminds me of Cooper vs. White. Just like then, I’ll take the guy who did it consistently against the best competition. Williams torched Bama and OSU. Cooper torched the SEC. While Williams was punking corners drafted in the first round where was Davis? Good luck to anyone who drafts KW 2.0.
Except no one had White as their consensus 1.01…
Cooper was clearly better than White and clearly the 1.01. Also Cooper’s strength is his route running…which is what Davis does best.
I have picks 1.1, 1.3, and 1.6. This is my biggest dilemma, do I go for two RBs, and pick Williams at 1.6, or is Corey Davis projected to be so much better, that I need to take Davis early. I think I’ll probably flip flop on this all Summer. I do believe that people have been pretty harsh on Mike Williams though. Rivers will definitely toss it up there for Williams to get.
Bad advice on Hunter. He shared time with one of the greatest TEs of all time. His rookie performance at that position, which is incredibly difficult to learn, was one of the best in recent memory. Here are some rookie TE stats….Gronk 42/546/10, Gates 24/389/2, Graham 31/546/5, Henry 24/478/8. Seems on track as a top 5 option. I realize it’s fun to be contrarian but you perspective on him is based in nothingness. You act like he should have been #4 last year. I hope more people think like you so I can get him cheap.
I’ve been reading the site since it was published and my expectations, which have been met, is that the writers, when taking such as absolute stance on a player and telling everyone to dump him asap without offering a single shred of evidence to back up your opinion just doesn’t belong. Do your research, present your pros and cons, then give your opinion. Which you’ve done on Williams in this article. You’re right, it’s your opinion, as this is mine but at least mine is grounded in research. Looking back at all the elite TE rookie years and how they developed, the situations they were drafted into, and their supporting cast. Henry is in the exact same situation as Gronk, Graham, Olsen, etc. Good QBs who favor TEs despite the team being absolutely loaded with pass catchers. Specifically NE and NO, they have always had loaded WR groups and constantly spread the ball around…..until they get a TE they like and then they feature that guy. His stats are in line with these other guy’s rookie years. Gates will hang it up this year. At that point he’s competing for targets with Allen and the 2 Williams, that later two eating at each other’s production, not Henry’s. And Benji is out of the picture. Gordon catches maybe 40 passes. Please write a separate article regarding Hunter and we can debate it there once you’ve laid out the research.
I’ll tell you what I think is bringing down Mike Williams. The Treadwell hangover from last season is lingering for many dynasty owners. I think the recent burn figures in everyone’s mindset and people see them both as bigger body wideouts that win with catch radius not speed or precision routes. The landing spot in Los Angeles could have owners concerned with so many mouths to feed just not enough target share to go around.
I’m in the camp that draft capital and competition matters. LA also worked him a week prior to the draft and attempted to keep the visit on the down low. They have a plan for him. Tom Telesco has an extensive background in scouting which to me says something about how he feels about Williams and adds polish to the pick for me. Lastly who he put his numbers up against. The ACC, Bama and The Ohio State. The Buckeyes had 3 DBs go in the first round and could not stop Mike Williams. Clemson wideouts seem to play well against my beloved Buckeyes so maybe that is lingering for me. 🙂
So, you’re saying I need to add this guy to the bust-watch list?
