Rookie SWOT: Joe Mixon

Jeff Miller Posted On May 14, 2017

Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2017 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2017 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll mix them in with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.

Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and post-draft mocks. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.

Name: Joe Mixon

Position: Running Back

Pro team: Cincinnati Bengals

Draft Status: Round 2, 48th Overall Pick

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Height: 6’1”
Weight: 228
40 Yard Dash: 4.50
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.33
Three Cone: 7.1
Bench: 21
Vertical: 35”
Broad: 118”

Strengths

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The most well-rounded back in this class
Burst to spare, especially for a big running back
Nifty between the tackles
Far better elusiveness than his agility score would indicate
Able to run through, around, and by would-be tacklers
Excellent receiving back capable of catching 50+ passes right out of the gate
Able to grind out tough yards at the end of games
Finishes runs
Ready to handle a massive workload

Weaknesses

Off-the field stuff will follow him, adding tons of pressure
Inconsistent vision exacerbated by a lack of patience
The aforementioned lack of patience can cause him miss holes and leave yards on the field
Looked just OK on limited pass block attempts, probably will need work to handle it on an NFL field
Runs upright at times, causing balance issues after contact

Opportunities

Mixon landed in a very good situation when it comes to opportunity for early playing time. He should instantly supplant Jeremy Hill, who has been worse than awful the last two years, in the early down role. Even if the Bengals give Hill the veteran nod early in the season, it won’t take long for the rookie to ascend the depth chart. Mixon has the ability to push Giovani Bernard aside as well, but will likely need him to be a slow healer following ACL surgery.

Threats

Bernard is a very good receiving back who should retain a significant role in the offense. His contract is quite reasonable, so even if Mixon asserts himself, he will still lose receptions to Bernard for the foreseeable future.

I want to preface this by saying Mixon committed a disgusting, reprehensible act. It is my job to set that aside and give my opinion on how big of a threat that event poses to Mixon’s future. Here I go: There has been no evidence Mixon is a serial abuser, so it seems unlikely he will repeat his offense. Purely in terms of prognosticating potential trouble that may cause a suspension, I’d be much more concerned if Mixon was caught drinking and driving or had been involved in several bar fights.

Short-term Expectations

Mixon is almost certain to start the year as the 1a in the Bengals’ backfield. With that amount of opportunity and his level of talent, I am expecting him to be in the low-end RB1 range as a rookie. 225 rushing attempts for around 1,000 yards, 35 receptions for another 300 yards and eight touchdowns is well within reach. At worst, I’d expect Mixon to split time with Hill early before pushing his way into more playing time as Hill once again proves incompetent.

Long-term Expectations

Mixon is my RB6 in dynasty, so you could say my long-term expectations are rather high. He is a slightly worse Ezekiel Elliot, which may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but Elliot was billed as a generational talent coming out.

As long as Bernard is in Cincy, Mixon’s reception ceiling is maybe 45-50 on the high side. Even if he can’t quite get to that point, Mixon is more than talented enough to be in the top-five discussion if he performs as expected on early downs.

Rookie Draft Advice

I am extremely high on Mixon, slotting the former Sooner in as my 1.02 over the likes of Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey. He finds himself in as good of a situation of any of the top-four running backs, and is the best all-around talent at the position in this draft class. Both Mixon’s floor and ceiling are as high as any rookie, regardless of position, a combination I am targeting in every draft this summer.

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Jeff Miller

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A video game dealer by day, fantasy author by night, and super handsome guy all the time, Jeff is here to answer the questions nobody asked. Also: dated pop culture references and the misuse of uncommon words.