Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2017 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2017 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll mix them in with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.
Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and post-draft mocks. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.
Name: Joe Mixon
Position: Running Back
Pro team: Cincinnati Bengals
Draft Status: Round 2, 48th Overall Pick
Video Highlights
Combine Review
- Height: 6’1”
- Weight: 228
- 40 Yard Dash: 4.50
- 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.33
- Three Cone: 7.1
- Bench: 21
- Vertical: 35”
- Broad: 118”
Strengths
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- The most well-rounded back in this class
- Burst to spare, especially for a big running back
- Nifty between the tackles
- Far better elusiveness than his agility score would indicate
- Able to run through, around, and by would-be tacklers
- Excellent receiving back capable of catching 50+ passes right out of the gate
- Able to grind out tough yards at the end of games
- Finishes runs
- Ready to handle a massive workload
Weaknesses
- Off-the field stuff will follow him, adding tons of pressure
- Inconsistent vision exacerbated by a lack of patience
- The aforementioned lack of patience can cause him miss holes and leave yards on the field
- Looked just OK on limited pass block attempts, probably will need work to handle it on an NFL field
- Runs upright at times, causing balance issues after contact
Opportunities
Mixon landed in a very good situation when it comes to opportunity for early playing time. He should instantly supplant Jeremy Hill, who has been worse than awful the last two years, in the early down role. Even if the Bengals give Hill the veteran nod early in the season, it won’t take long for the rookie to ascend the depth chart. Mixon has the ability to push Giovani Bernard aside as well, but will likely need him to be a slow healer following ACL surgery.
Threats
Bernard is a very good receiving back who should retain a significant role in the offense. His contract is quite reasonable, so even if Mixon asserts himself, he will still lose receptions to Bernard for the foreseeable future.
I want to preface this by saying Mixon committed a disgusting, reprehensible act. It is my job to set that aside and give my opinion on how big of a threat that event poses to Mixon’s future. Here I go: There has been no evidence Mixon is a serial abuser, so it seems unlikely he will repeat his offense. Purely in terms of prognosticating potential trouble that may cause a suspension, I’d be much more concerned if Mixon was caught drinking and driving or had been involved in several bar fights.
Short-term Expectations
Mixon is almost certain to start the year as the 1a in the Bengals’ backfield. With that amount of opportunity and his level of talent, I am expecting him to be in the low-end RB1 range as a rookie. 225 rushing attempts for around 1,000 yards, 35 receptions for another 300 yards and eight touchdowns is well within reach. At worst, I’d expect Mixon to split time with Hill early before pushing his way into more playing time as Hill once again proves incompetent.
Long-term Expectations
Mixon is my RB6 in dynasty, so you could say my long-term expectations are rather high. He is a slightly worse Ezekiel Elliot, which may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but Elliot was billed as a generational talent coming out.
As long as Bernard is in Cincy, Mixon’s reception ceiling is maybe 45-50 on the high side. Even if he can’t quite get to that point, Mixon is more than talented enough to be in the top-five discussion if he performs as expected on early downs.
Rookie Draft Advice
I am extremely high on Mixon, slotting the former Sooner in as my 1.02 over the likes of Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey. He finds himself in as good of a situation of any of the top-four running backs, and is the best all-around talent at the position in this draft class. Both Mixon’s floor and ceiling are as high as any rookie, regardless of position, a combination I am targeting in every draft this summer.
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I am in several Devy Leagues and own multiple shares of Mixon. So, it is refreshing to read an article that focuses on Mixon as a football player and not on an act that occurred as an incoming freshman. Although, I do believe that the incident has benefited Mixon, in that, he is that much more humble and passionate as a human being. In the following years, Mixon displayed at Oklahoma that he is a team player and appreciates what the game of football has given him. Mixon could have left the program, but he stayed and worked through the issues that were set before him. Mixon will show everyone that he is a great football player and even a better person. As far as stats, Mixon will overtake Hill in the preseason and Bernard will be eased into the season coming off his injury. Green/Eifert/Ross will open the running lanes for Mixon, even with the short-comings of the offensive line. Stats over 16 games: 256 carries, 1126 yards rushing, 48 catches, 464 yards catching, 8 total TDs (1590 total yards, not including some occasional punt and kickoff returns). Appreciate the great insight Jeff!
The Bengals have spent some draft capital to find a WR2 opposite AJ but they had been talking just last season about having Gio out in the slot and as a WR option more. Maybe this keeps Mixon on the field more at the same time as Gio?
@ Michael Garza: I’m a fan of Mixon on the field but to think that Mixon has humbled himself and more passionate is a bit of a stretch. This past season Mixon has an altercation steaming from a parking citation.
“Mixon was suspended one game by coach Bob Stoops after he allegedly ripped up a parking ticket and threw it at the attendant. Mixon was also accused by the attendant of driving his car toward the attendant in an attempt to intimidate.”
There was another altercation with a female that “went away.”
Love the article as Mixon is a great talent but he’s definitely high risk.
GM
There is no way I would spend a first round pick on this guy. Way too many red flags and high risk,end of story.
I felt like that too but I’m recently reconsidering. What’s exactly is high risk about it? The Bengals have a lot more invested in him than I do so they obviously did their homework on him to be comfortable enough to select him in the 2nd round. Honestly I feel a guy like Dalvin Cook is much higher risk with his multiple off field incidents.
Every player represents risk in some form or fashion. Removing a player off your board because his risk comes off the field instead of on is a defective process.
It still baffles me that people could watch tape of Mixon in college and come away thinking he is a 3 down back. I have watched every second of film Draft Breakdown has, and could not find 1 broken tackle. He goes down on contact, the first time, every-time. He is also way to quick to bounce things outside if there wasn’t a gaping hole where the play was designed to go, and because he played against future accountants and sales reps in the Big 12 (one defensive player drafted from the Big 12 in the first 3 rounds this year) he looked good doing it. But his athletic testing shows that he is not some athletic freak, but in fact a dead average athlete in the NFL. When he tries to beat NFL caliber linebackers to the edge, he is going to be in for a rude awakening.
