Vox Talks: Dynasty “Sell” Candidates
Voxer is an app that works like a walkie talkie for smartphones. DLF uses this app to communicate with each other since the team is now spread out all across the world. Voxer is used to leave what equates to be short voice or text messages and we have the ability to create groups to talk about whatever we may want in a very quick and efficient manner.
Earlier this week, I brought you a Voxer Rookie Mock Draft and a Voxer Rookie Bust Mock Draft for you to review. Those articles were well received so we decided to keep the series going. We can use the app to get a lot of information very quickly and formulate some great community discussion, so why wouldn’t we!?! With that in mind, I asked Team DLF a very simple question this week:
“Who are you selling right now in dynasty leagues?”
To be more specific, I asked which player they had on their roster(s) who they look at right now and believe they may have inflated value, making them feel the need to test the waters to see if they can get someone similarly ranked or with a similar ADP who they feel is a better dynasty asset. In short, this doesn’t mean they don’t want these players and are selling them cheaply – instead, these are players Team DLF mentioned as players they’d be more comfortable replacing with someone who is similarly valued in rankings and ADP data. Again, this needs to be understood in its context – these are not “sell at all costs” candidates.
The results were pretty interesting and we had a lot of spirited debate in regards to many players. Here was the list of players who were most popularly mentioned as sells.
Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
(ADP = 14, other receivers in that range include TY Hilton, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Dez Bryant)
Watkins was the name thrown out the most and it really wasn’t close. As Bill Latin said, “I’m selling Sammy. Many people still believe in his talent and draft pedigree.” The challenge with Watkins has been his health throughout his short career and the Bills surprisingly failed to pick up his player option beyond next season, making this year possibly his last in Buffalo. For the most part, Watkins has failed to live up to his lofty price tag, yet still seems to be drafted just outside round one in many startups. If you’re not a believer in him, you can still fetch a nice return. It’s hard to say if that’s going to remain the case beyond this off-season.
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Michael Thomas, WR NO
(ADP = 12, other receivers in that range include Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins)
Thomas burst on to the scene last year with the Saints and became one of the best rookie picks last season. The sky seems to be the limit for him moving forward now that he’s the clear WR1 in New Orleans with Brandin Cooks setting up shop in New England. As Matt price says, “Thomas is already a late first in dynasty startups. How much further can he go?”” It remains to be seen just how far Thomas can possibly ascend and how he’ll respond to being the primary focus of defenses. This name was hotly debated in our Voxer room as Curtis Patrick disagreed. He said, “By this time next year, Thomas will be ahead of DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson and maybe even AJ Green and Julio Jones as ageism kicks in.” Chances are he’ll be just fine but if you believe his value could already be at its apex and believe in other players more, this could be the time to start kicking some tires in order to get a player you are more comfortable with.
Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
(ADP = 21, other players in that range include Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery)
There’s no question Gronkowski is one of the most valuable players in all dynasty leagues when he’s healthy. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case very much the past few years. Still, Gronk has been able to maintain a healthy ADP of 21, despite the ailments. It’s fair to wonder if his body is breaking down and back injuries are nothing to sneeze at. If you believe Gronkowski’s best days are behind him, you have a really nice window to sell high – if he gets hurt again, that window will close quickly.
Tyreek Hill, WR KC
(ADP = 62, other receivers in that range include Golden Tate, Martavis Bryant, Emmanuel Sanders, Sterling Shepard)
Hill was the sleeper pick of rookie drafts last year and proved to be one of the most electric players in all of football. Regardless, there are character concerns with him that can’t be forgotten and he scored a lot of his points on special teams and big plays that can’t always be predicted. He also had double-digit target numbers just twice during the season and had just 28 targets over the second half of the year. There’s no doubting his ability but it also remains to be seen just how the Chiefs are going to be able to utilize him as a traditional player in their offense. You also have to wonder just how much time he’s going to be spending on special teams if Kansas City decides to make him a full-time starter as well.
Josh Doctson, WR WAS
(ADP = 65, other receivers in that range include Emmanuel Sanders, Randall Cobb, Sterling Shepard, Julian Edelman)
Doctson was a washout in year one as he posted just two catches for 66 yards in two games played. He’s also continued to battle lower leg issues, specifically with his Achilles. This year is going to be huge for him as he’s projected to start along with Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder. With a sixth round ADP, he still has a lot of value. However, it’s very clear the Achilles injury is starting to concern dynasty owners.
David Johnson, RB ARI
(ADP = 5, other players in that range Antonio Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Julio Jones, Le’Veon Bell)
Our own Ryan Finley said, “I’m selling on David Johnson. The only direction he can go is down and I think Arizona is on the cusp of a downward turn.” Johnson has proven to be one of the most dynamic running backs in the league and selling him would be risky. However, the point Ryan makes here can’t be totally dismissed, either. Running backs with ADPs this high are rare and there’s a chance he could be right. You can fetch a boatload for Johnson right now so it may be a good time to explore the possibilities out there if you’re on the same wave length with Ryan.
Allen Robinson, WR JAX
(ADP = 11, other receivers in that range include AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, TY Hilton)
Robinson was great in 2015 when he posted 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Last year was a major disappointment as he caught 73 passes but for just 883 yards and six scores, though. The quarterback play of the Jaguars directly impacted his performance and it’s fair to wonder just which Blake Bortles will show up this season. If you believe Robinson’s 2015 was a statistical anomaly, selling him with an ADP of 11 would be your best chance at fetching value.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
(ADP = 40, other players in that range include LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller, Donte Moncrief, Mike Williams)
Jeff Miller was the most vocal in the desire to sell Kelce. As he said, “I’m selling Kelce. He’s been good for years then has a very good half of a season and people suddenly want to put him in the same tier as Rob Gronkowski – that just doesn’t compute. His quarterback is still Alex Smith at the moment, Jeremy Maclin won’t be hurt every season, he isn’t younger than Grokowski and tight ends can be pointless anyway.” Those are strong words from Jeff but they could also make a lot of sense. If Kelce goes back to being just one of the large second tier of tight ends, selling him for a player or a rookie draft pick around #5 or #6 could be a good move.
Hunter Henry, TE LAC
(ADP = 56, other players in that range include Jordan Reed, Tevin Coleman, Russell Wilson, Jordan Matthews)
Henry has quickly become the TE4 for many dynasty owners out there. Tom Kislingbury adds, “I’d sell Hunter Henry in an instant at his current evaluation. He had fewer than 40 catches but just happened to get into the paint a lot. People are way too high on him.” Henry’s ADP has really skyrocketed and it’s fair to wonder just how much higher he can go.
This was a fun exercise and one that created a lot of spirited debate. Who do you agree and disagree with? Who would you add? Let us know in the comments below.
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Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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