2018 NFL Mock Draft Extravaganza: Part One
The post-NFL Draft portion of the off-season is always an exciting time for dynasty players. Not only do we have brand new players and situations to digest, but the majority of rookie drafts are held soon after the conclusion of April’s premiere event. If you’re an NFL Draft fanatic, and most of us involved in this hobby are, you immediately begin looking forward to the next NFL Draft, even though it’s now nearly a year away. This look ahead often results in a “way too early” mock draft and as improbable as these projections might be, we can’t get enough.
In past years, there might have been one or two lists released by the major media outlets giving us some names to watch for the following draft, but as our infatuation with the NFL Draft process and the NFL in general has ballooned, those lists grew into full first round mock drafts and their numbers grew. This year, I’ve studied nineteen 2018 first round mock drafts. Despite the difficulty of predicting draft picks a full year out, I think there is a lot we can learn from these mocks.
Here’s the list of mock drafts used in this exercise:
Sports Illustrated (Chris Burke)
Pro Football Focus (Steve Palazzolo)
Fox Sports (Dieter Kurtenbach)
With so much data to process, I’ll break it down looking at the individual mock drafts themselves, then the players being projected and finally the teams potentially selecting these players and what it all means for our dynasty teams.
ESPN (McShay)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Allen, QB SF
1.03 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.05 Calvin Ridley, WR MIN
1.07 Saquon Barkley, RB IND
1.13 Christian Kirk, WR WAS
1.14 Bo Scarbrough, RB PHI
1.21 Antonio Callaway, WR BAL
1.24 Courtland Sutton, WR ATL
1.27 Derrius Guice, RB OAK
1.29 Deon Cain, WR GB
ESPN’s McShay took a lot of heat, and fought back, after he projected former Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner would be a first rounder this time last year. Of course, Leidner went undrafted and isn’t likely to even make a roster. McShay played it much safer this time around, but was the only one to include Gators wideout Antonio Callaway, who has had some off the field issues. McShay does have a trio of quarterbacks in his top three, and that will become a theme throughout these drafts. They are Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Josh Rosen (UCLA).
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Sports Illustrated (Burke)
1.01 Josh Rosen, QB CLE
1.02 Sam Darnold, QB SF
1.06 Josh Allen, QB JAX
1.10 Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
1.11 Calvin Ridley, WR WAS
1.14 Courtland Sutton, WR BAL
1.18 Lamar Jackson, QB ARZ
1.19 Royce Freeman, RB IND
1.20 Mason Rudolph, QB MIN
1.27 Christian Kirk, WR ATL
1.29 Derrius Guice, RB OAK
The class of 2018 looks like another strong running back class, headlined by Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice, but Burke’s mock is one of the few to include Oregon’s Royce Freeman, who surprisingly returned to school for his senior season. This will likely be a battle for the RB3 spot between players like Freeman, Nick Chubb and other candidates.
CBS (Brinson)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Allen, QB SF
1.03 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.05 Calvin Ridley, WR CHI
1.09 Christian Kirk, WR DET
1.13 Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
1.16 Mason Rudolph, QB WAS
1.18 Courtland Sutton, WR TEN
1.20 Luke Falk, QB ARZ
1.24 James Washington, WR CAR
Like many of the 19 mocks I’ve included here, Brinson’s version includes five quarterbacks with what appears to be a top tier of Darnold, Allen and Rosen, followed by Mason Rudolph and Luke Falk, a pair of players who opted to return to school rather than join the class of 2017. Also, Brinson’s projection of Courtland Sutton to the Titans, being paired with Corey Davis, would form an exciting duo for years to come and could turn our own Nick Whalen into a die-hard Titans fan.
CBS (Rang)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Allen, QB SF
1.03 Saquon Barkley, RB NYJ
1.05 Calvin Ridley, WR CHI
1.07 Josh Rosen, QB NO
1.10 Lamar Jackson, QB WAS
1.13 Derrius Guice, RB DET
1.14 Christian Kirk, WR PHI
1.18 Mason Rudolph, QB ARZ
1.23 James Washington, WR BUF
1.27 Nick Chubb, RB SEA
Let me take this chance to point out the relatively surprising inclusion of Texas A&M wide receiver Christian Kirk. Not that I don’t think he deserves to be mocked in the first-round range, but across many of these drafts, he’s among the top 15 players off the board, as he is in Rang’s. In many of these, he is the top receiver off the board. Also, Rang evidently doesn’t believe in the moves the Seahawks have made at running back, specifically bringing in Eddie Lacy, as he sees them drafting Nick Chubb.
CBS (Brugler)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Saquon Barkley, RB SF
1.03 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.06 Lamar Jackson, QB BUF
1.10 Josh Allen, QB WAS
1.13 Derrius Guice, RB DET
1.14 Christian Kirk, WR PHI
1.18 Courtland Sutton, WR ARZ
1.28 Mark Andrews, TE OAK
1.29 Mason Rudolph, QB PIT
Brugler has some notable projections here, namely placing Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, who some doubt can even play the quarterback position in the NFL, ahead of Wyoming’s Allen. The 2018 class of tight ends looks very weak, and this is the lone appearance of Mark Andrews of Oklahoma. On a loaded young Raiders offense, adding a first-round talent at the tight end position would be a luxury.
USA Today (Easterling)
1.02 Sam Darnold, QB SF
1.03 Saquon Barkley, RB NYJ
1.06 Josh Allen, QB JAX
1.08 Josh Rosen, QB LAC
1.09 Derrius Guice, RB DET
1.11 Mason Rudolph, QB WAS
1.14 Courtland Sutton, WR BAL
1.18 Luke Falk, QB ARZ
1.21 Calvin Ridley, WR CAR
1.25 Bo Scarbrough, RB CLE
Easterling has left out some of the more popular players included in other mocks, namely Jackson and Kirk. He’s also one of the few who projects someone other than a top tier quarterback being honored as the top overall NFL Draft pick.
Rotoworld (Nystrom)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB SF
1.03 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.06 Josh Allen, QB NO
1.07 Lamar Jackson, QB BUF
1.11 Saquon Barkley, RB WAS
1.13 Christian Kirk, WR DET
1.18 Calvin Ridley, WR BAL
1.19 Courtland Sutton, WR CLE
1.20 Derrius Guice, RB TB
1.22 Mason Rudolph, QB ARZ
1.24 Nick Chubb, RB NYG
1.26 James Washington, WR ATL
In his mock, Rotoworld’s Nystrom has some trendy picks, including the Giants taking a first round running back. After the release of veteran Rashad Jennings, the Giants are left with a duo of Paul Perkins and rookie Wayne Gallman. It won’t be a surprise at all if they see a big need in their backfield next year and fill it with a player like Chubb.
Pro Football Focus (Palazzolo)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
1.03 Mason Rudolph, QB SF
1.07 Josh Allen, QB BUF
1.08 Courtland Sutton, WR PHI
1.12 Lamar Jackson, QB WAS
1.15 Saquon Barkley, RB DET
1.16 Josh Rosen, QB ARZ
1.18 Derrius Guice, RB IND
1.22 James Washington, WR BUF
1.23 Nick Chubb, RB NYG
1.27 Bo Scarbrough, RB SEA
1.30 Anthony Miller, WR ATL
Several things stand out in the mock from Pro Football Focus. First, they are by far the highest on Mason Rudolph, slotting him third overall to the Niners. He only cracks the top ten of one other mock and was completely omitted from seven of the 19. Also, the PFF mock from Palazzolo represents the only appearance from Memphis wide receiver Anthony Miller, an underrated player. I like what I’ve seen from Miller, but ending up as a first rounder would be a surprise, especially at the expense of Kirk and Calvin Ridley, who were both left out of this mock.
Sporting News (Galko)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
1.02 Saquon Barkley, RB CLE
1.04 Josh Rosen, QB LAR
1.06 Josh Allen, QB JAX
1.09 Derrius Guice, RB DET
1.11 Mason Rudolph, QB WAS
1.14 Courtland Sutton, WR BAL
1.17 Calvin Ridley, WR NO
1.18 Lamar Jackson, QB ARZ
1.23 Bo Scarbrough, RB NYG
1.27 James Washington, WR OAK
1.31 Christian Kirk, WR NO
Nothing seems out of place with Galko’s 2018 mock draft. As has been the theme in many, the Jets, Jaguars, Redskins, Rams and Cardinals add a quarterback, while the Lions and Giants add some presence to their backfield.
Fox Sports (Kurtnebach)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
1.06 Josh Allen, QB WAS
1.07 Josh Rosen, QB BUF
1.08 Saquon Barkley, RB BAL
1.10 Jarrett Stidham, QB ARZ
1.19 Derrius Guice, RB BUF
1.21 Courtland Sutton, WR PHI
1.22 Christian Kirk, WR CAR
1.25 Calvin Ridley, WR ATL
1.27 Bo Scarbrough, RB OAK
1.32 Nick Chubb, RB NE
While Kurtnebach left out fringe Round One quarterbacks like Luke Falk, Jackson and Rudolph, he was the only one to include Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham, mocking him tenth overall to the Cardinals. I love this idea! The Tigers have been desperate for solid quarterback play for years and the transfer Stidham could turn them into title contenders. If that happens, we could certainly see him make the leap to the NFL after one season starting in the SEC.
Bleacher Report (Miller)
1.02 Josh Allen, QB SF
1.03 Saquon Barkley, RB NYJ
1.06 Josh Rosen, QB JAX
1.08 Sam Darnold, QB LAC
1.12 Derrius Guice, RB WAS
1.15 Deon Cain, WR BAL
1.18 Courtland Sutton, WR ARZ
1.28 Calvin Ridley, WR SEA
I mentioned the infatuation with Kirk and Bleacher Report’s Miller is one of the few to have him out of the top 32 picks. Also noteworthy is his inclusion of Clemson’s Deon Cain. Up to this point, Cain has not matched the production of his esteemed fellow Tiger receivers and he’s also had some off-field trouble. If he can put it all together, his value could skyrocket as Miller seems to believe.
Bleacher Report (Daniels)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.03 Calvin Ridley, WR SF
1.06 Saquon Barkley, RB JAX
1.08 Lamar Jackson, QB BUF
1.10 Christian Kirk, WR LAC
1.12 Josh Allen, QB WAS
1.18 James Washington, WR BUF
1.19 Derrius Guice, RB MIN
1.26 Courtland Sutton, WR SEA
1.32 Jake Browning, QB NE
This might be the most surprising and divisive mock of all the ones included. In fact, I had to go back and double check that Daniels didn’t file this to Bleacher Report prior to the recent NFL Draft. Along with being the highest of any participants on Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, Daniels also projects the Jaguars to follow up their first-round selection of Leonard Fournette this year by adding the top back in next year’s class, Barkley. This would be surprising to say the least. Daniels must also not believe in Dalvin Cook as he sees the Vikings using their first-round pick on running back Derrius Guice. Finally, Daniels is mocker to include Washington’s Jake Browning.
The Big Lead (McIntyre)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
1.02 Josh Rosen, QB CLE
1.03 Josh Allen, QB LAR
1.07 Saquon Barkley, RB SF
1.11 Royce Freeman, RB DET
1.12 Mason Rudolph, QB ARZ
1.21 Calvin Ridley, WR WAS
1.24 Deon Cain, WR ATL
1.25 Bo Scarbrough, RB TB
1.27 Derrius Guice, RB GB
1.28 Mike Gesicki, TE PIT
1.31 Christian Kirk, WR OAK
McIntyre is another to include the running back Freeman among his first-rounders and he notably projects the Oregon Duck with come off the board with the eleventh pick to the Lions. He is also among the few to include Cain and Penn State tight end Mike Gesicki, who is being matched with the Steelers late in the first-round.
Draft Analyst (Pauline)
1.01 Josh Allen, QB NYJ
1.02 Sam Darnold, QB SF
1.03 Lamar Jackson, QB BUF
1.04 Courtland Sutton, WR CHI
1.06 Josh Rosen, QB LAC
1.07 Derrius Guice, RB NOS
1.11 Christian Kirk, WR CLE
1.13 Calvin Ridley, WR ARZ
1.18 Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
1.22 Royce Freeman, RB TB
1.26 Mike Gesicki, TE PIT
1.27 Nick Chubb, RB OAK
1.28 Troy Fumagali, TE GB
Like McIntyre before him, Pauline includes Gesicki and Freeman, but is also the only mocker projecting Wisconsin tight end Troy Fumagli as a top 32 pick. Like Gesicki in Pittsburgh, Pauline sees the Packers keeping Fumagli in state. The biggest takeway from this mock is Pauline is the only one of 19 to place Guice ahead of Barkley in his mock. Dynasty players seem to be back and forth on these two elite prospects, but the draftniks have made it clear who they prefer.
Fan Rag (Marino)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Allen, QB SF
1.03 Saquon Barkley, RB NYJ
1.08 Lamar Jackson, QB LAC
1.09 Derrius Guice, RB DET
1.14 Courtland Sutton, WR BAL
1.18 Mason Rudolph, QB ARZ
1.19 Nick Chubb, RB IND
1.24 Bo Scarbrough, RB DEN
1.26 Mike Gesicki, TE PIT
1.32 Christian Kirk, WR NE
Marino had the distinction of being the most accurate mock drafter this year as he nailed nine of the first-round selections. When I scanned his 2018 version, I quickly noticed UCLA’s Rosen was not included, making Marino the only one of 19 to leave him out. There are some rumors of off-field issues with the star quarterback, not to mention the injury that cost him much of the 2016 season, but as of now, this goes against the consensus. Marino also kept Ridley out of his top 32, which is much easier to see given his disappointing 2016 campaign.
SB Nation (Kadar)
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Rosen, QB SF
1.03 Josh Allen, QB NYJ
1.08 Mason Rudolph, QB WAS
1.11 Lamar Jackson, QB BUF
1.15 Calvin Ridley, WR ARZ
1.19 Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
1.22 Mike Weber, RB NYG
1.24 Luke Falk, QB BUF
The SB Nation mock was the first and only to include a whopping six quarterbacks among the first-round players. The last time there were six signal callers in the first round was the heralded class of 1983, which included Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly and Ken O’Brien, among others. Obviously, this is unlikely, but the NFL needs a quarterback class like this one. Kadar is also the only mocker projecting Ohio State’s Mike Weber among the first rounders.
SEC Country (Riley)
1.02 Sam Darnold, QB SF
1.03 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.04 Christian Kirk, WR LAR
1.06 Josh Allen, QB JAX
1.09 Saquon Barkley, RB DET
1.10 Calvin Ridley, WR PHI
1.18 James Washington, WR ARZ
1.23 Derrius Guice, RB NYG
1.24 Nick Chubb, RB CLE
1.26 Mike Gesicki, TE PIT
1.28 Equanimeous St. Brown, WR ATL
This might be my favorite mock draft simply because Riley chose to include Notre Dame’s wideout Equanimeous St. Brown. The man with the amazing name turned the corner last year after a quiet freshman season and is my pick for breakout star of the upcoming college football season. On a down note, Riley also leaves out Sutton, who is the favorite among fantasy players to land as the WR1 in next year’s rookie drafts. Finally, I wonder if there was a bit of SEC bias showing through with the Kirk pick at fourth overall to the Rams.
WalterFootball
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB LAR
1.02 Josh Rosen, QB NYJ
1.03 Christian Kirk, WR SF
1.05 Josh Allen, QB JAX
1.06 Saquon Barkley, RB CLE
1.08 Calvin Ridley, WR BUF
1.16 James Washington, WR ARZ
1.20 Courtland Sutton, WR DAL
1.23 Lamar Jackson, QB BUF
1.24 Derrius Guice, RB DET
1.29 Parris Campbell, WR PHI
1.30 Bo Scarbrough, RB OAK
The latest mock draft from WalterFootball.com includes the highest projected draft spot for Kirk at three overall to the Niners, who have been stocking up on undersized wideouts. I was also surprised to see the name of Parris Campbell land among the first rounders. Admittedly, I know very little about Campbell, but I’m intrigued by this evaluation and this makes me want to learn more. This is the only mock to feature Campbell.
Land of 10
1.01 Sam Darnold, QB CLE
1.02 Josh Rosen, QB SF
1.05 Christian Kirk, WR LAR
1.06 Saquon Barkley, RB BUF
1.07 Josh Allen, QB NYJ
1.08 James Washington, WR BAL
1.16 Calvin Ridley, WR ARZ
1.20 Nick Chubb, RB MIA
1.23 Mike Gesicki, TE BUF
1.24 Bo Scarbrough, RB ATL
1.30 Derrius Guice, RB OAK
1.31 Mason Rudolph, QB DAL
The Land of 10 mock projects the Bills to grab a pair of Penn State Nittany Lions, Barkley and Gesicki, in the first round. There’s also the questionable pick of sending quarterback Mason Rudolph to the Cowboys. This site must have some major questions about the legitimacy and future of current Dallas starter Dak Prescott.
In the next edition of this series, I’ll dig deeper into these 19 mock drafts and look at the top players in the class of 2018 and how they’re being valued based on these “way too early” mocks.
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