At this point, the DLF Team is spread all over the country and even beyond (one of our editors lives in London, for example). Communication within the team can be very challenging and we all love to talk dynasty fantasy football, so we use Voxer, an app that works like a walkie talkie for smartphones. Voxer is used to leave what equates to be short voice messages and we have the ability to create groups to talk about whatever we may want. Last night, I decided to perform a quick hitting 12-team, PPR, two-round rookie mock draft using the app and opened it up to everyone on Team DLF. The rules were simple – if you opened the app and saw the draft running, you could choose a player to keep it moving (you just couldn’t pick two in a row). Since we’re all right in the middle of draft season, we just can’t have enough mock draft reviews, so here’s how it went.
Editor’s Note: Click on the player’s name to read their Rookie Player Profile, an exclusive look brought to you by DLF.
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ROUND ONE
1.01 = Corey Davis, WR TEN
1.02 = Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
1.03 = Joe Mixon, RB CIN
1.04 = Leonard Fournette, RB JAX
The first real curveball of the draft comes at the top as the four players we most commonly see are taken but in a very different order than most would expect. This exercise is further proof to show the allure of Joe Mixon is very real. We’ve seen Davis and Fournette at the top of most drafts, though there still isn’t a true community consensus 1.01 (we comfortably have Davis ranked there but our recent poll of the DLF community shows it as nearly even). With that in mind, seeing McCaffrey go at 1.02 is a mild surprise as he’s been slotted at the 1.03 in nearly every draft we’ve seen. The real shock is seeing Mixon go ahead of Fournette. There’s no questioning his talent and this mock draft simply shows some dynasty enthusiasts are truly enamored with his upside and will pay dearly to acquire it.
1.05 = Mike Williams, WR LAC
1.06 = Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
Williams and Cook have been slotted at the #5 and #6 spots since the draft ended and that doesn’t change here. The 1.05 is likely going to represent a difficult decision for dynasty owners. Do you take a receiver taken in the top seven of the NFL Draft, knowing his quarterback isn’t going to age along with his career arc and finding himself on a roster with some talent already at the position? Do you instead take a running back who is extremely talented but flopped at the NFL Combine, has legitimate character concerns and was drafted on a team with a putrid offensive line? The decision is one with a lot of risk but serious reward, too. It wouldn’t surprise too many to see either of these two players end up being the best at their respective positions from this draft class in a few years. Unfortunately, it also wouldn’t surprise too many to see them underperform a bit in relation to their lofty expectations.
1.07 = OJ Howard, TE TB
1.08 = John Ross, WR CIN
Ross and Howard are clearly underneath the first two groups of players but both have tremendous upside. Seeing either of them make it much further in drafts is going to be a surprise. After Howard and Ross, things start to get really, really interesting. If you have a pick beyond #8, there are a whole host of players who you’ll consider taking and each of them could have a strong argument made to justify your selection.
1.09 = Alvin Kamara, RB NO
1.10 = David Njoku, TE CLE
1.11 = Jamaal Williams, RB GB
1.12 = Evan Engram, TE NYG
This final group in round one represents a set of talented players who all have a chance to be special. Kamara has real upside but finds himself behind both Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram at the moment. An owner investing here has to believe Kamara will thrive in the “Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles” role in New Orleans. Njoku is a tight end with great upside and real quarterback challenges to match. Williams was the biggest surprise in round one. It’s possible he overcomes his lack of dynamic ability to take over as the starting running back in an explosive offense. It’s also possible the committee of Williams, Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery fails to impress and the Packers finally draft a running back highly next season. Williams is a lottery ticket and it’s going to take some courage and confidence to take him this early. This pick was hotly debated in the Voxer draft room. Engram may be the safest pick of the round as he finds himself in a great spot in New York.
ROUND TWO
2.01 = JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
2.02 = Kareem Hunt, RB KC
2.03 = Zay Jones, WR BUF
2.04 = Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
The top of round two brings us some more interesting prospects. Smith-Schuster is a chronic underachiever who finds himself on a team known for getting the most out of their wideouts. Hunt is a great situation for early success and is a consistent presence at the end of round one or beginning of round two in rookie drafts – if you want him, you’re likely going to need to get to that area in order to guarantee it. Jones’ situation continues to be more and more intriguing now that the Bills have declined to exercise the fifth-year option on Sammy Watkins. The selection of Samuel started a long side discussion about him possibly being undervalued. Getting him at 2.04 could prove to be a steal.
2.05 = Samaje Perine, RB WAS
2.06 = Adam Shaheen, TE CHI
2.07 = D’Onta Foreman, RB HOU
2.08 = Joe Williams, RB SF
The middle of the round features three running backs who could emerge and be bargains in rookie drafts. Perine is sure to challenge Robert Kelley early and often for carries in Washington. Foreman looks to have usurped Alfred Blue as the backup to Lamar Miller in Houston and is just a fairly predictable injury away from showing what he can do. Williams is a fast riser in rookie drafts as the buzz continues to build around him in San Francisco. However, the conversation in the Voxer room revolved around the selection of Shaheen at 2.06. While some believed this was a reach, others looked at the fact he was a second round draft pick with enormous upside. Regardless of where you sit, it’s apparent this draft features a whole host of tight end prospects who are truly tantalizing. Owners are going to need to do their homework to decide which one they really want and position themselves to get one.
2.09 = Wayne Gallman, RB NYG
2.10 = Chris Godwin, WR TB
2.11 = Taywan Taylor, WR TEN
2.12 = Gerald Everett, TE LAR
Gallman has been labeled (fairly or unfairly) as average in every area but not deficient in any – I believe that’s a bit of a lazy narrative. Gallman is a real grinder who is going to push Paul Perkins this season. Godwin is a talented player who is going to take some time to develop in Tampa Bay behind Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, so patience will need to be executed there. Taylor is a great athlete who could thrive in the slot in Tennessee. Everett represent the fifth tight end taken in the top 24 picks and that’s unprecedented in this day and age. Perhaps the days of “Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce and everyone else” are going to go away quickly.
Keep it tuned here as we continue our unprecedented rookie draft coverage.
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Ken Kelly
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
Latest posts by Ken Kelly (see all)
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- 2019 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Consensus Third Round - May 1, 2019
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Moisheq
May 9, 2017 at 6:52 am
Thanks for this perspective! I have a general question about mocks inspired by this post: how reliable are they? It’s easier to take a gamble or play your gut (i.e., I like Mixon over LF) in a mock. But, in real life, it’s much harder to pull that trigger.
So, how reliable are mocks in reality?
Thank you again!
Ken Kelly
May 9, 2017 at 8:14 am
Hey Moisheq!
We always ask the team to draft as if they were performing this in a real league. That being said, it’s a lot easier to pull the trigger on Jamaal Williams or Adam Shaheen a little early when there aren’t the risk/reward consequences or team needs aren’t factored into the mix. Every league is different anyway and all it takes is one owner to fall in love with a prospect so even “real drafts” are going to be a little different in your own leagues. It just takes one owner or pick to throw a curveball and skew the whole draft.
Still, I believe exercises like this give you a pretty accurate range for players even when it’s not an exact science. From doing this in a variety of different ways, a few things have surfaced that should take form in real drafts:
1.) The top four are likely to include Corey Davis, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon in some order.
2.) Dalvin Cook and Mike Williams are consistently going at 5/6 in just about every draft we’ve seen or reported on. An owner could reach for one in the top four but it’s not happening often.
3.) The tight end hype is real and it won’t be unusual to see five or even six go in the first three rounds. Plan accordingly there.
4.) Decisions are going to be made by owners in the late first and early second rounds in terms of taking running backs who aren’t sure things (Hunt, Perine, Foreman, Kamara, etc.) or taking receivers / tight ends with upside (Samuel, Zay Jones, Howard, Ross, Njoku, Engram)
Those seem to be consistent themes in the first week or two of drafting. Hope that helps!
Moishe
May 9, 2017 at 8:28 am
Great. Thank you, Ken!
OffensivelyPC
May 9, 2017 at 8:54 am
Yeah the Williams and Shaheen picks smell of someone who’s done so many mocks they just wanted to be the guy in the draft that pulled a mega reach to make it different. It’s funny on the one hand, but on the other hand, it always does seem like there is that huge reach in the 1st or early 2nd – whether because of inexperience or someone being so high on someone they have to have them because they traded away their 2nd and he won’t be there in the 3rd.
We could criticize it all day, but we’ve all been a part of drafts where someone gets picked and everyone around him is baffled. Doesn’t happen every draft, but still.
GBDiehard
May 9, 2017 at 8:27 am
They are only a snapshot in time. Mocks only give you a general opinion of how OTHER people rate a particular player at the time the mock was taken. If YOU believe Mixon is/will be a better player than Fournette then by all means take him. I’m currently in the midst of 2 drafts. Players that I thought I never would have a shot at, because MOCKS had them going in the early 2nd, were still available for me to choose from in the 3rd round. And vice versa, some players were taken way earlier than where a lot of mocks had them going. In the end its all about how YOU feel about a player.
Jacob Smith
May 9, 2017 at 10:29 am
Love all the mocks.
BUT…Could DLF do one that’s non-PPR or half-PPR, or an article covering how rankings and picks would change if not full PPR which all of the mocks have been thus far.
Possibly there’s not that much difference, but it would be interesting to see how much the RBs, especially the ground-n-pound types, would move up. Would Perine go ahead or Kamara in a non-PPR, for instance?
Also, I’d love to see someone buck the consensus in the top 6 in one of these drafts. Or picking someone other than Howard with the 1.07. Not a risky dart throw that would be unlikely in a real draft, but a player whose selection that high has some justification.
Jacob Feldman
May 9, 2017 at 12:19 pm
In a non-PPR league, I don’t think a ton of things change. I think Fournette is locked into the top RB spot, and Kamara is more of an early second round pick instead of a potential late 1st. All of the other changes would be pretty minor with a player moving up or down a spot.
JMP
May 9, 2017 at 11:06 am
I am actually a bit surprised that I haven’t yet seen a mock with Hunt going at 7. I understand that these are a snapshot in time as one of the posters notes above, but given the slow development time of TEs, and the fact that the Chiefs moved up to draft Hunt, a bit surprised. I may take him at my 1.07
Jacob Smith
May 9, 2017 at 11:43 am
I have the 1.07 and I’ve starting to veer from the consensus of taking Howard to picking Hunt, Perine or Kamara. I like the film on Hunt. My hesitation is that he wasn’t ranked that high before the draft and has received a huge bump since due to his landing spot. We’ve seen this landing spot bump play out and fail before e.g. Yeldon, Agohlor. Need to watch more film to see if Hunt’s bump is justified and that he was simply rated too low to begin with. Also, the Chiefs can’t seem to keep a RB in the lead role for more than a season. After Charles there’s been Davis, West, Ware and now, presumably, Hunt, but for how long?
JMP
May 9, 2017 at 5:29 pm
You raise a good point – how does one distinguish btwn hype and reality. I think at the 7th, there will inevitably be risk involved – one thing that makes me feel more confident about Hunt isn’t just his landing spot, but the draft capital invested – the chiefs gave up a 4th and a 7th to move up to grab him and that point in the draft, I don’t think a 4th is something to bat your eye at. This is also the first RB that Reid will have drafted @ KC, I believe, which makes me more confident. Could he be a bust? Absolutely, but TEs take a while to develop and I have zero confidence in Ross’ ability to stay healthy. I would actually put Engram and Hunt in that 7th spot on my board – Engram is going to be used quick and often and BMarsh basically all but recently announced his retirement after the 2018 season.