Mind of Miller: Picks for Vets

Jeff Miller

Lots of very smart folks here at DLF have given you their rankings, gone over landing spots, winners and losers, and more. In an effort to avoid redundancy while still helping you out with your rookie drafts, this week’s Mind of Miller will see yours truly listing a veteran I’d rather have than each of the top-six draft picks. This may be because I prefer the vet to the rookie I think I will get there, or it could be I see a chance to gain an additional piece while also picking up a player I like.

In addition to the recommendation, I will list a few recent trades involving the player. For the sake of sanity, I omitted some crazy town deals I don’t feel are representative of the player’s true value. These deals were tracked down using our awesome trade finder tool. But wait, there’s more! On top of all that, and for no additional cost, I will throw in a suggested end point for trade negotiations.

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1.01 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

About half of our rankers here at DLF have Corey Davis, the presumed 1.01, ranked ahead of Jeffery. I am not one of them. Jeffery is in a fantastic situation to fully rehab his value and hang some fat numbers as the focal point of a young, hopefully ascending offense. That he willingly signed a one-year deal, betting on himself to show up bigly, makes me optimistic he is wound up for the season. As a bonus, in many leagues, you can get Jeffery plus something for the 1.01.

Recent trades: Jeffery was packaged with a third for the 1.03 in a two different leagues

Suggested deal: 1.01 for Alshon and an early second

1.02 Melvin Gordon, RB LAC

If Davis goes at 1.01 in your league, Gordon is a player I would target over any of the available running backs. While the Chargers’ stud is a bit of a divisive topic in our community, I believe he is easily a better option than Leonard Fournette or anybody else in this class. That the Chargers didn’t feel the need to add any real help in the draft or free agency at the position shows they think he is the guy as well. If you are thinking to yourself, “Yeah, but his YPC stinks,” check this out: Using week seven as the mid-point, because he played only 14 games, Gordon’s YPC in the second half of 2016 was 4.7. At the same time, he scored 22.1 PPG versus only 19.9 in the first half despite scoring eight fewer touchdowns. He good.

Recent trades: Gordon, 2.04 for 1.03; Gordon for 1.03; Gordon for 1.04, Bilal Powell

Suggested deal: 1.02 for Gordon and Kenneth Dixon or Mark Ingram

1.03 – Davante Adams, WR GB

Instead of taking a shot on a running back with a bad offensive line and/or landing spot, why not go for a young, ascending receiver who catches passes from the best quarterback in the NFL? I was as low as anybody on Adams after his disastrous rookie campaign, but a fantastic WR11 2016 changed me into a believer. How efficient was the touchdown machine? Only one other receiver in the top-17 saw fewer targets than he did. There are concerns about touchdown regression, but those should be alleviated by projected increased target volume and a higher YPR as he begins to eat into the aging Jordy Nelson’s share.

Recent trades: Adams for Adam Thielen, 2018 first; Adams for Donte Moncrief, 2.04; Adams for Tavon Austin, Delanie Walker, 2018 first, 2018 second

Suggested deal: 1.03 for Adams and Ameer Abdullah

1.04 – Stefon Diggs, WR MIN

This may come as a bit of a surprise, and it also comes with some risk, as Diggs has been unable to stay completely healthy to this point in his career. When on the field, Diggs has been a terror. Despite all the struggles for the Minnesota offense, his PPG pace in 13 games this past season put him on the fringes of WR1 territory. This is despite only three touchdowns and a 10.8 YPR, some three yards worse than in 2015. As the offense comes into its own, as I believe it will start to do this season, Diggs should see a marked increase in both areas. You’ll have a hard time finding a receiver with a better shot at stardom for cheaper than what it will cost to acquire Diggs.

Recent trades: Diggs, Brandon Lafell for Jay Ajayi; Diggs for C.J. Prosise, 1.12; Diggs for 1.05

Suggested deal: 1.04 for Diggs and the 2.01

1.05 – Jordan Howard, RB CHI

The trade comps I looked at don’t support that you could get Howard for the 1.05, but my hypothesis that wasn’t the case was proven correct by a little Twitter poll where over half of respondents said the 1.05 or 1.06 was the highest pick they would pay straight up for the Bears’ bruiser.

Howard has already had the season you hope to get out of the guy you take here. The Bears added a couple potential third down backs this off-season, but Howard should challenge for the NFL lead in carries and could easily top ten scores. He is also their best red zone weapon and will hopefully show improvement on the passing opportunities he does get. There is a lot to like about the focal point of the Bears’ offense.

Recent trades: Howard for Jeremy Hill, 1.03; Howard for Marcus Mariota, 1.12; Howard for 1.02, Kyle Rudolph

Suggested deal: 1.05 for Howard and a mid-to-late second

1.06 – Doug Baldwin, WR SEA

Only Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, and Doug Baldwin have finished as a WR1 in each of the last two years. Brown, Jones, and Baldwin are all 28-years-old and have very good to elite quarterbacks chucking the pigskin their way. Why, then, are two of them consensus top-five receivers and the other barely inside the top-20? If you are a contender looking to take home a trophy, Baldwin is probably the best deal in all of fantasy.

Recent trades: Baldwin, Joe Flacco, 2.10 for Corey Coleman; Baldwin for C.J. Anderson, 2.05; Baldwin, 2.12 for 1.10, 2.03

Suggested deal: 1.06 for Baldwin and Eddie Lacy

Don’t take the Suggested deals, which, please remember, I am suggesting as end points, not opening offers, or even the players named, as gospel. If your player evaluation differs from mine, think of what vets you would make a deal for. The idea here is to open you up to the notion there are more ways to build a roster than to stand pat and make picks.

I am open to coming back next week with the rest of the top-12. If you liked the article and want to see me keep going, let me know in the comments below.

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jeff miller