Post-Draft Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
Wow. What a draft!
As a Bears fan, I still don’t know what hit me with those first few rounds, but as a dynasty fan I’m excited. I can’t remember a year when there were so many skill position players at the top of the first round. We always see a few quarterbacks, but the linemen and pass rushers seem to dominate the early part of the first. This year, we saw seven of the first ten and eight of the first 12 players drafted occupying offensive skill positions – that is nothing but good news for dynasty drafts. Combine that with one of the deepest tight end classes of all time and we’re in great shape in terms of rookie draft value.
This weekend, starting on Saturday, 11 of DLF’s finest joined me to hold a mock draft. The picks were shared on twitter as they happened using #dlfrookiemock so you might have already seen them. Nonetheless, I wanted to take a little bit of time to reflect and share some further comments about the mock draft. Before we get to that, here were the ground rules:
- PPR scoring with standard lineups (not superflex, not TE premium, etc)
- Drafters were told to assume they had a balanced team with no glaring team needs
- No trades were allowed
With that in mind, let’s get on with the show!
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Top Two Picks
1.01 – Corey Davis, WR TEN
1.02 – Leonard Fournette, RB JAC
I think these two at the top of your rookie draft is going to be pretty standard regardless of scoring, format or anything else. Occasionally, you might see Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon sneak into the second slot if someone feels really strongly about one of them, but I think this will be the order in about 90 percent of rookie drafts.
When I look at Davis, I see the only receiver in this draft class who is likely to be a top 10 receiver for an extended period of time. There are a few others who might hit top 10 production sporadically, but I think Davis could be a fixture there for the next eight years. He landed in a great situation with an ascending quarterback, he will have the opportunity to be the top target right out of the gate, and there isn’t any reason he can’t be as good as some of the top rookies in recent years like Amari Cooper and Mike Evans. Like almost all rookies, he might need a year to fully hit his stride, but I’m expecting big things from him over the next few years.
As for Fournette, I asked our own “Dynasty Doctor,” Dr. Scott Peak about his thoughts on his selection as I’ve seen some pushing for McCaffrey here. His response was, “I thought about McCaffrey here, but Fournette looks like a feature back in the NFL. He showed good hands at the combine and I think his receiving skills are underrated. The Jaguars offensive line makes me nervous, but Fournette should get plenty of usage. I’m not convinced McCaffrey will mesh well with Cam Newton’s style of quarterback play as well.” I mostly agree with Scott. I think Fournette has the ability to catch some passes in the NFL. Now, no one is going to mistake him for Matt Forte or LeSean McCoy, but even if Fournette can haul in three passes a game, he’s going to push for top five running back numbers.
The Second Tier
1.03 – Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
1.04 – Joe Mixon, RB CIN
1.05 – Mike Williams, WR LAC
1.06 – Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
Originally, I was thinking it was a tier of three players at the top, but from all of the early ADP data it really seems to be a tier of two players followed by the next four. I decided to split them that way, even though I personally think McCaffrey is the clear leader of this group. I asked Joseph Nammour, the drafter who took McCaffrey, if he felt the same. Here are his thoughts on McCaffrey:
“I took Christian McCaffrey at the 1.03 spot over Joe Mixon (most notably), Dalvin Cook and Mike Williams. While I view McCaffrey and Mixon as close to a toss up, I think the draft capital spent on him tips the scales in his favor. McCaffrey’s landing spot could have been better. Carolina’s offensive line is below average, and Newton has a propensity to run things in himself from the goal line – although the selection of a running back in the top ten means Carolina likely wants to ease the physical burden on him to extend his longevity.
McCaffrey’s overall skill set resembles that of a three-down back, and his added return prowess gives him the ability to contribute on all four downs. McCaffrey immediately becomes the Panthers’ best rusher, but is also in the conversation for their best receiver as well. Cam Newton hasn’t had a target who generates much separation other than Greg Olsen, but the additions of Curtis Samuel and McCaffrey will help the offense to create mismatches against different defensive personnel. I believe they will utilize him as an all-purpose weapon, scheming him the ball from the backfield and the slot.”
One of the biggest knocks against McCaffrey has been his potential usage. Joseph doesn’t seem concerned at all. I think McCaffrey is going to be a great player with a high floor. The question will be his ceiling, which will obviously depend on how he is used.
With Mixon, it will be very interesting to see what happens with Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. If both of them are on the roster at the start of the season, Mixon might struggle to get enough of the workload to be a RB1. Now, I fully believe he is more talented than both of them and should be able to beat them out, but if they are still on the roster I think the work will be split. I just hope the locker room in Cincinnati can be a positive influence on the young man.
Williams just might be the safest pick out of the four. I think he has a very high floor. My concern is just how high his ceiling can reach. I don’t see him as a top 10 receiver when it comes to production. I see him as more of a “70 catches for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns” kind of player – that puts him in the middle-to-high WR2 range. That’s still pretty good, especially in the middle of the first round, but it isn’t elite. I think Keenan Allen will be back, Hunter Henry will continue to improve, and Melvin Gordon will still catch passes out of the backfield. A lot of competition there, and I just don’t see Williams running away with a lion’s share of targets. He has a great floor, though!
As for Cook, I have mixed feelings about him. There are the off the field issues and the medical concerns about him are legitimate. There are also the very poor results from his combine. On the flip side, the guy looks great on the field. I don’t know how well he fits in Minnesota with a weak offensive line and a very average (if that) passing game. There will also be some competition there for carries as well, so I think his owners will need to be patient. For me, Cook is the clear bottom of this tier, but I know there are lots of folks who disagree with me.
The Rest of the Round
1.07 – OJ Howard, TE TB
1.08 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
1.09 – Evan Engram, TE NYG
1.10 – John Ross, WR CIN
1.11 – Kareem Hunt, RB KC
1.12 – David Njoku, TE CLE
Once you get past the top six, I think you could make a case for a large number of players to go next. You couldn’t really fault anyone for making any of these six players from the 1.07 pick at this point in time. They all have their merits as well as their concerns. I think I’ve seen all of them (except Njoku) taken as the seventh pick in mocks or live drafts so far, this just happens to be the way everything shook out in this mock.
Personally, I keep going back and forth between Howard and Engram for my 1.07. Howard is definitely more complete and should be the better NFL player, but Engram could be the better pass catcher and fantasy player. Here is what Travis May said when I asked how he made the call:
“OJ Howard was the somewhat easy seletion at the 1.07 spot for me. Tight ends selected in the first round have a great track record of receiving every opportunity to find success. Howard has the build of a defensive end or outside linebacker, the 40 time of a wide receiver, and the agility of a running back. OJ Howard is an absolute freak of an athlete. Beyond just being an athletic specimen, he has impressed scouts every chance he’s had. OJ can do it all, so he should plug in right away to an offense with a young and growing quarterback in the form of Jameis Winston. Yes, there are a couple of decent receiving targets there in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, but just one year ago Cameron Brate was a back end TE1 for Fantasy Football purposes. A player with OJ Howard’s talent could be that and much more very soon.”
Continuing with the round, I’ve never been a huge JuJu guy. Well, I shouldn’t say never. I liked him out of high school, but I’ve soured a bit on him up to this point. I’m not sure him landing with the Steelers is as good as some others think. He isn’t going to take over the possession role, because they have this guy named Antonio Brown in town. They also have one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield. I’m not exactly sure how JuJu fits in there. Maybe he can carve out a bit of a red zone role, but I think the fantasy production will be inconsistent and the ceiling will be limited.
As I mentioned earlier, Engram is neck and neck with Howard in my rankings for the seventh spot. I love the physical talent, and he should come in and start week one for the Giants. I do worry a little bit about how much usage he will get. He will clearly be behind Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall, possibly Sterling Shepard as well. Not only that, but Eli Manning is starting to near the end of the line. The upside is huge, but I wonder how long it will take before we get to see all of that potential translate into actual production – that is the only thing keeping him from being the runaway 1.07 for me. He’s a great pick at 1.09.
I struggle a little bit with John Ross. He has phenomenal athletic ability, but we’ve seen this before. Players like Philip Dorsett and Tavon Austin haven’t quite lived up to fantasy expectations. I think Ross is a bit more complete than those players and being drafted in the top ten is a definite plus, but there are still quite a few concerns there. I asked our own Ken Kelly to convince me that Ross should be a target in the back half of the first round and here is what he said:
“Jacob. You’re an idiot.”
I asked him to clarify further and this is what I received:
“A lot of people are comparing John Ross to DeSean Jackson but I think he’s more in the mold of Brandin Cooks than anyone else. I’ve watched Ross over the years at Washington and he’s far from a one trick pony. The concerns about his durability are legitimate but you also have to consider there isn’t a player in the league faster than he is. Literally. He’s the fastest player in the league. He’s also an absolute terror in the open field, using both speed and quickness. While I don’t put him anywhere near the class of Corey Davis or Mike Williams, Ross is a playmaker who has a high ceiling in fantasy and reality and won’t have to face the opposition’s top corner with AJ Green on the other side. I’d rather look at that at this point and take a shot at a home run rather than reach for a running back or take a less talented pass catcher. Sure, I may whiff. I may also have a steal in the draft. At 1.10, that’s about all you can ask for.”
Hunt is going to be a bit of a wild card in drafts right now. I’ve seen him go as early as the 1.07 pick in rookie drafts so far and I think he’s going to be a regular fixture in the second half of the first round. Few players saw their stock rise as much as Hunt on draft day. Just be careful how far he gets pushed up draft boards, though. This situation is similar to Bishop Sankey. Remember him? I think Hunt is better than Sankey, but time will tell. I don’t like Hunt at the 1.07, but around the 1.11 I think he deserves consideration as that is about where the risk equals the reward. Here is what Brian Malone had to say about his pick:
“I’m not thrilled with Hunt at 1.11, but the combination of talent and situation makes him the best choice left on my board. My optimistic comparable for Hunt is Pierre Thomas. He’s not a plus athlete at the NFL level and his lack of long speed will limit his upside. However, he has the size and vision to be a respectable between-the-tackles runner, and he can earn his keep as a receiver. It might seem silly to spend a late first on someone who hopefully becomes Pierre Thomas, but Thomas was quietly productive for several seasons — and he never got to play for Andy Reid. Reid’s running backs typically shoulder a heavy passing game workload. Spencer Ware has never earned that opportunity, and he’s also never played a 16-game season. If Hunt earns the lead role or inherits it after a Ware injury, I’ll project him as a weekly low-end RB1 or high-end RB2. “
With the final pick in the round, I went with Njoku. It was a very tough pick to make, because I also considered Samaje Perine and Zay Jones at this spot. If I had to do it again, I think I would go with Jones here. With that said, there is a lot to like about Njoku. He is the third of the big three tight ends on my board, but he’s still a fringe first round selection. The athletic ability is definitely there and the upside is a solid TE1 thanks to his pass catching ability. Playing in Cleveland is a blessing and a curse, though. He has little competition when it comes to talented players on the offense, but he also has very little talent at the quarterback position. As time goes on, he’ll be able to develop along with the rest of the team, but of the big three he’s going to require the most patience.
That’s it for round one of this mock. The other rounds will be coming up soon! If you want to see the results before then, check out #dlfrookiemock on twitter.
Good luck drafting!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
