2017 NFL Draft IDP Pick-by-Pick Analysis: Day Three

Doug Green

April 27, 2017

Good morning everyone!

Welcome to the exclusive NFL Draft IDP Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. We’re excited to offer this unique version of our live draft coverage for all you IDPers out there!

Let’s start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect. For those of you who have been around, it will be much like past years.

1.) We’ll start off with some random comments about the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting tonight. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes – this will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you. Easy choice for us, there.

2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the NFL Draft. Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty and IDP spin as we complete our wrap-ups. We’ll also be updating our Player News tool on veterans impacted by picks and have our offensive Pick-by-Pick Analysis post to check in on, too.

3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, or within the Premium (or free) forums. While we won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (we’ll have our hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged. You guys are all the “elite,” so I would expect some great discussions all over DLF the entire weekend.

We’re ready to again be able to offer this to you guys as an exclusive part of your Premium Membership with us. Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft! Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies to again be available earlier than you could possibly expect as well!

Pre-Draft

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I would expect defensive players to go off the board early and often this year. Unfortunately, I don’t think a lot of them will be great IDP asserts.

Myles Garrett should get the party started, but Edge rushers are rarely big IDP producers. I would also expect up to a half-dozen cornerbacks to be selected in Round 1. They carry very little IDP value in most leagues though.

Where Reuben Foster lands will be of interest as he is a talented playmaker, but has lost some buzz this offseason after a couple of incidents and could slide.

We will keep you updated all weekend, and join Doug Green, Eric Coleman, and Bill Latin on the DLF podcast live broadcast to get real-time analysis.

Thank you for checking in all three days. We’ll break down all the important picks in the coming days.

ROUND SEVEN

7 (230) Washington Redskins – Josh Harvey-Clemons, S, Louisville –  He’s an in-the-box safety who can lay a hit on you. He’s average in coverage at best, but should have some value as a rookie.

ROUND SIX

6 (193) – Cincinnati Bengals – Jordan Evans, LB, Oklahoma – Sooners leading tackler who will probably end up at SAM or WILL. The Bengals second level is pretty crowded, so snaps will be hard to find. He’s a Tier 3 pick.

ROUND FIVE

5 (161) Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Walker Jr., LB, Northwestern – This is an excellent fit. Walker is a tackling machine and an extremely smart player. He’ll solidify the middle of that Indy defense. He’s a high Tier 2 selection.

5 (155) – Tennessee Titans – Jayon Brown, LB, UCLA – Chase and tackle type with more than enough speed. He’s a bit undersized, but has good coverage skills. Should land as a Tier 3 rookie LB.

5 (148) – Jacksonville Jaguars – Blair Brown, LB, Ohio – Brown was a favorite of draft Twitter. He isn’t a metrics wonder, but pop on his tape and watch him go chase down the offense. He might not start Day 1, but he’ll see snaps early and is worth the investment.

ROUND FOUR

4 (124) – Detroit Lions – Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee – Reeves-Maybin has an injury history, I’ll give you that. But when he plays, he is a heat-seeking missile. I actually had him graded higher than Jarrad Davis. Detroit needs help at the LB level and he’ll get snaps. Draft him as a Tier 2 rookie linebacker.

4 (120) – Minnesota Vikings – Ben Gedeon, LB, Michigan – He lacks top-end talent, but plays with a high motor. Probably just a backup and special teams contributor. He belongs in Tier 3 rookie linebackers.

4 (116) – Cincinnati Bengals – Carl Lawson, Edge, Auburn – To me Lawson is a mistake hitter, when the tackles make a mistake, he makes them pay. He is not the fastest man in the draft, but has plenty of power. He’s a Tier 2 rookie defensive lineman.

4 (108) – Green Bay Packers – Vince Biegel, LB, Wisconsin – Biegel is a fairly decent tackler and could man the SAM position for the Packers. He’s Tier 3 rookie linebacker.

We’ll hit the highlights here on Day 3. Of course all the big IDP names you need to know we’ll break down.

ROUND THREE

3 (107) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kendell Beckwith, LB, LSU – This is a poor fit. The Bucs have a strong linebacking corps and Beckwith is slow and doesn’t chase ball carriers out of his zone. He is a Tier 3 rookie linebacker.

3 (103) – New Orleans Saints – Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Florida Atlantic – Hendrickson is a high-motor pass rush specialist and exactly what the Saints have been shopping for. He might not have a ton of IDP value, but he will be a key cog of that front seven and a good special teams player.

3 (102) Seattle Seahawks – Nazair Jones, DT, North Carolina – He specializes in the run then will come off the field during pass rush downs.

3 (101) Denver Broncos – Brendan Langley, CB, Lamar – Who? Yeah that’s what I said too. NFL.com says he is a traditional size/speed combo.

3 (99) – Philadelphia Eagles – Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia – Douglas has good size at 6-foot-2 and fits a desperate need. He doesn’t have a ton of long speed though.

3 (97) – Miami Dolphins – Cordrea Tankersly, CB, Clemson – He’s a lockdown corner and a turnover producer, but he isn’t the most fluid dude.

3 (95) – Seattle Seahawks – Delano Hill, S, Michigan – He’s an in-the-box safety with a bit of a nasty streak, which is what Seattle loves. He could be a late-round flyer.

3 (94) – Pittsburgh Steelers – Cam Sutton, DB, Tennessee – Sutton has good ball skills and is a willing run defender. He’s a great fit for the Steelers but again, not a ton of IDP interest.

3 (93) – Green Bay Packers – Montravious Adams, DT, Auburn – Adams is a big body and should take up space on the Packers interior. He has first tier value in DT-required leagues.

3 (92) – Dallas Cowboys – Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan – Dallas is re-working that secondary and Lewis is a very sound nickel corner.  His IDP value isn’t many thanks to his position.

3 (91) – LA Rams – John Johnson, DB, Boston College – Johnson will slide in at free safety for the Rams, but doesn’t carry a ton of IDP value.

3 (90) –  Seattle Seahawks – Shaquill Griffin, DB, Boston College – Seattle is looking to add some depth in the secondary. Griffin’s game is based on aggression which Seattle covets.

3 (88) – Oakland Raiders – Eddie Vanderdoes, DT, UCLA – He’s a run-stuffer and can push the pocket from the middle. He has some value in DT-required leagues.

3 (83) – New England Patriots – Derek Rivers, Edge, Youngstown State – The Pats completely stole one of the better pass rushers in the draft. There was early talk that Rivers could sneak into Round 1. The Pats are tough to nail down in the front seven so that may impact his ceiling but this is a home run real-life pick.

3 (81) – Washington Redskins – Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA – Moreau has prototypical size and will probably end up being Washington’s nickel corner. He carries very little IDP worth.

3 (80) – Indianapolis Colts – Tarell Basham, Edge, Ohio – Defense. Defense. Defense. The Colts need as much as they can get and Basham is another of the edge pass rushers that this class has plenty of. Just like Williams below, draft accordingly.

3 (78) – Baltimore Ravens – Tim Williams, Edge, Alabama – Much like Bowser earlier, Williams is a pass-rush specialist. The Ravens also lost Zach Orr from the linebacking corps. Williams is a dice roll at the end of your draft.

3 (77) – Carolina Panthers – Daeshon Hall, DL, Texas A&M – This a nice fit for the Panthers who need depth on the defensive line. Hall is a little undervalued playing on the other side of Myles Garrett. He is probably the end of the second or the top of the third tier of rookie defensive linemen.

3 (76) – New Orleans Saints – Alex Anzalone, LB, Florida – The Saints need all the defensive help and Anazalone is a very good linebacker, when healthy. He has had trouble staying on the field in the past few years. If he can stay on the field he is someone that you want to pick up in your rookie drafts.

3 (75) – Atlanta Falcons – Duke Riley, LB, LSU – The Falcons add another speedy linebacker. Riley can man the middle and let the pass rusher go hunt quarterbacks. He would probably put up better numbers on a less stacked team.

3 (74) – Baltimore Ravens – Chris Wormley, DL, Michigan – Wormley will end up playing 3-4 defensive end. He won’t carry a ton of IDP value but is a nice fit for the Ravens.

3 (73) – Cincinnati Bengals – Jordan Willis, Kansas St. – This is a value pick. Willis is super athletic and excellent pass rusher. Willis, with this landing spot, is a first tier defensive lineman.

3 (68) – Jacksonville Jaguars – Dawuane Smoot, DL, Illinois – This pick is a little weird to me. The Jags have a lot defensive lineman and Smoot didn’t have the best 2016. I would say Smoot is a Tier 3 rookie defensive lineman.

3 (66) San Francisco 49ers – Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado – The 49ers have needs everywhere. Witherspoon has length at 6-foot-3, but is a marginal IDP player at best.

3 (65) – Cleveland Browns – Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte – The Browns are putting together a nice defense. Ogunjobi won’t put up a ton of numbers but may flash as offenses focus on other players in the front seven.

ROUND TWO

2 (61)  – Green Bay Packers – Josh Jones, S, NC State – The Packers needed secondary help badly and Josh Jones is a nice centerfielder. His IDP value is limited.

2 (60) – Dallas Cowboys – Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado – Dallas needed to replenish that secondary and Auwzie brings plenty of talent on the outside. He is an excellent tackler. His IDP value is low because of position.

2 (59) – Kansas City Chiefs – Tanoh Kpassagnon, DL, Villanova – The Chiefs have been losing some pass rushers this offseason and Kpassagnon certainly fits that bill. He is a project though. If you draft him, it is with the expectation that you will not get anything out of him for a couple of years.

2 (57) – Houston Texans – Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt – The rich keep getting richer. The Texans had the No. 1-rated defense last season, now have added the second-best inside linebacker in the draft. Cunningham will steal tackles from Bernardrick McKinney but should run free thanks to the rest of that front seven. He’s a tier one rookie linebacker.

2 (56) – Oakland Raiders – Obi Melinfonwu, DB, UConn – The Raiders have been linked to a safety all offseason and Melinfonwu was getting first round talk very recently. He can play either safety or corner. His IDP value is pretty low thanks to his position, plus he will need some time to develop.

2 (55) New York Giants – Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama – The Giants lost Snax Harrison and this is his direct replacement. Tomlinson provides some nice push up the middle but he carries little value outside of DT required leagues.

2 (54) Miami Dolphins – Raekwon McMillan, LB, Ohio St. – McMillan is an extremely athletic linebacker, but goes to a bit of a crowded situation in Miami. He is more talented than the other LBs on the roster so he should find work quickly.

2 (53) – Detroit Lions – Teez Tabor, CB, Florida – Tabor’s stock fell thanks to poor 40 times at the combine and his pro day, but his tape is solid playing in the SEC. He is a streamable option in IDP.

2 (51) – Denver Broncos – DeMarcus Walker, DL, Florida St. – Walker rang up a lot of numbers for the Seminoles, but I don’t see a ton of talent. A lot of his numbers came in garbage time. If you believe, he’s a second tier rookie defensive end.

2 (50) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Justin Evans, S, Texas A&M – The Bus were in the market for a safety and Evnas has decent coverage skills. I’m not crazy about his tape, but fellow writer Bill Latin likes him. Even still, he carries minimal IDP value as a free safety

2 (49) – Washington Redskins – Ryan Anderson, LB, Alabama –  Washington lost a couple of pieces from that linebacking corps. Anderson is solid but not tremendous, but he seems to make big plays in big moments. He should have Tier 2 rookie LB value.

2 (47) – Baltimore Ravens – Tyus Bowser, Edge, Houston – Bowser is a really good pass rusher and should be the one to replace Terrell Suggs in a few years. He’ll play outside and might be worth a dice roll in the later rounds of your rookie draft.

2 (46) – Indianapolis Colts – Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida – He’s a turn and run corner but doesn’t help much in the running game. He has good size and may carry streaming value in that Colts porous defense.

2 (43) – Philadelphia Eagles – Sidney Jones, CB, Washington – This fills a major need for the Eagles, but htey will have to wait a year for him. He tore an achilles at his pro day. His IDP value is very minimal, if at all.

2 (42) – New Orleans Saints – Marcus Williams, S, Utah – The Saints are re-tooling that defense and take a playmaking safety. His misses a few too many tackles for my taste. He doesn’t have a ton of value from the IDP side.

2 (39) – New York Jets – Marcus Maye, S Florida – The Jets clearly were displeased with their secondary as they are starting over. Maye is a true centerfielder free safety, perhaps the second best after Hooker. He will carry very little IDP value.

2 (36) Arizona Cardinals – Budda Baker, DB, Washington – Baker can play both nickel or safety. He is not the biggest player on the field. If he plays more of a strong safety role, he’ll carry more IDP value. If the Cardinals ask him to play more slot nickel, his value will drop.

2 (35) Seattle Seahawks – Malik McDowell, DL, Michigan St. – McDowell has plenty of talent, but his effort is the piece of his game that has been questioned. His IDP value is capped unless you play in a DT required league.

2 (32) Green Bay Packers – Kevin King, CB, Washington – King fills a major need for Green Bay. King is a long player that will solidify the secondary. His IDP value is minimal.

ROUND ONE

1 (31) San Francisco 49ers – Reuben Foster, LB Alabama – Foster is the most polished linebacker in the draft, but he slid due to off-field concerns. His IDP fit is somewhat iffy with this landing spot but still should be a Tier 1 LB.

1 (30) Pittsburgh Steelers – T.J. Watt, LB Wisconsin – Watt will be the one who replaces James Harrison when he finally retires. He is just like his brother and is in the quarterback hunting business. His IDP value might be a little low early on but in a year or two could be a nice OLB.

1 (28) Dallas Cowboys – Taco Charlton, DL Michigan – Charlton fills a need as the Cowboys have been desperate for pass rushers for several years. He is a bit raw as he is only a one-year starter. His IDP value will be in the second tier of defensive ends.

1 (27) Buffalo Bills – Tre’Davious White, CB LSU – White excels in press coverage and as a kick returner. White is probably the most polished CB in the draft after Lattimore. Still, he carries very little IDP value.

1 (26) Atlanta Falcons – Takk McKinley, Edge UCLA – McKinley is high-motor player who is still a bit raw. Some scouts have said he will have similar career arc to new teammate Vic Beasley. In terms of IDP drafting, pick McKinley where you selected Beasley in your draft.

1 (25) Cleveland Browns – Jabrill Peppers, S Michigan – Peppers is one of the most interesting players in the entire season. He should start out as an in-the box-safety. He can play a multitude of positions, as well as return kicks and punts. His draft position might depend on your league settings.

1 (24) Oakland Raiders – Gareon Conley, CB Ohio St. – Conley’s stopped my have dropped a bit due to rape allegations that popped up in the past week. On the field, he’s a little raw but may end up being the most talented corner in a deep class. IDP-wise, he may get tested early, but otherwise he’s a streamable CB.

1 (22) Miami Dolphins – Charles Harris, Edge Missouri –  Harris is a pass rush specialist who should be classified as a defensive lineman in the upcoming season. If Harris is classified as a DE, he should have some decent IDP value.

1 (21) Detroit Lions – Jarrad Davis, LB Florida – Davis is an athletic middle linebacker who can chase and tackle all day. His IDP value should be quite high,and depending on where Reuben Foster lands, he could be the the first linebacker off the board.

1 (18) Tennessee  Titans – Adoree Jackson, CB USC – Jackson is a bit of a raw prospect, but there is no doubting his speed or athleticism. He solidifies the Bucs defensive backfield. He may have a little extra worth thanks to his kick and punt return ability.

1 (17) Washington Redskins – Jonathan Allen, DL Alabama – At one point, Allen was mocked as high as No. 3 overall, but he tumbled perhaps due to the fact he had some shoulder issues. As an IDP asset, Allen will be listed as an DE but will be probably be down the listing.

1 (16) Baltimore Ravens – Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama – I’ll be honest and say Humphrey was lower-rated corner for me. On the plus side, he does have the experience of playing in the SEC. As a rookie, I would believe that he will get picked on a bit this season and could have some value with tackles and passes defended.

1 (15) Indianapolis Colts – Malik Hooker, S Ohio St. – Hooker is the consummate centerfielder. He can blanket the secondary who can erase a multitude of sins, and Indy has plenty of those defensively. As for the IDP side, Hooker carries very little value.

1 (14) Philadelphia Eagles – Derek Barnett, Edge Tennessee – Barnett is one of the best pure pass rushers in this draft. He broke Reggie White’s sack record for the Vols. As an IDP asset, Barnett will be a typical pass rusher and should be drafted as such.

1 (13) Arizona Cardinals – Haason Reddick, LB Temple – Reddick has been the fastest riser this offseason. Reddick can play as an off-ball linebacker on early downs, then shift down and rush with his hand on the ground in passing situations. From the IDP side, Reddick should be a Tier 1 rookie linebacker and drafted as such.

1 (11) New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore, CB Ohio St. – Lattimore is an instant upgrade in the defensive backfield for the Saints. On the IDP side, cornerbacks are devalued but if you play in CB required league, Lattimore is an excellent choice who could generate some interceptions early on.

1 (6) New York Jets – Jamal Adams, S LSU – Adams is a Day 1 starter for the Jets and is an early IDP target. The former Tiger is an in-the-box safety and and excellent tackler. Draft him with confidence.

1 (3) San Francisco 49ers – Solomon Thomas, Edge Stanford – Thomas can play up and down the line. To kick inside he will need to put on some weight. His IDP value will be affected by what the 49ers do with DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead.

1 (1) Cleveland Browns – Myles Garrett, Edge Texas A&M Garrett is a game changer in real life football. In the IDP world, he is a bit of a dice roll. If you went after Jadeveon Clowney a few years back, take your chances with Garrett.

 

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doug green
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