2017 NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis: Day Two
April 27, 2017
Good morning everyone!
Welcome to the exclusive NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. It seems like we’ve again been waiting forever for the NFL Draft to arrive and it’s finally here. This will be an incredibly exciting weekend and we thank you for spending it with us. For many of you, this is your sixth NFL Draft as a Premium Member and your support continues to fuel our fire and help us move forward with more articles, tools and upgrades!
Let’s start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect. For those of you who have been around, it will be much like past years, so grab a beverage and buckle up.
1.) We’ll start off with some random comments about the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting tonight. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes – this will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you. Easy choice for us, there.
2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the NFL Draft. Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty spin as we complete our wrap-ups. We won’t be posting commentary on the 75th right guard taken, but expect anything important in relation to dynasty leagues being covered. We’ll also be updating our Player News Page on veterans impacted by picks, and we’ll have an IDP Pick-by-Pick Analysis post to check in on as well.
3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, or within the DLF Forums. While we won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (we’ll have our hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged. You guys are all the “elite,” so I would expect some great discussions all over DLF the entire weekend.
We’re ready to again be able to offer this to you guys as an exclusive part of your Premium Membership with us. Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft! Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies to again be available earlier than you could possibly expect as well. Until then, you can keep checking in on our constantly evolving 2017 DLF Rookie Draft Guide for a ton of information and analysis on the most important skill position rookies in the draft!
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ROUND THREE
NOTE: To learn more about many of these prospects, just click on their name and you’ll be taken to their DLF Rookie Player Profile.
We’ll be back tomorrow to post all the significant names taken throughout the day!
3 (106) – Seattle Seahawks: Amara Darboh, WR Michigan
With a rookie ADP of 53, Darboh is a rookie taken in four of our ten pre-draft rookie mocks. He’s another great story as he fled his native country just to become an American citizen years ago. Darboh is a project player who is going to need time but he has good speed and decent raw ability. Again, he’s more of a player to monitor or take very late in a rookie draft.
3 (105) – Pittsburgh Steelers: John Conner, RB Pittsburgh
There are players every year who you just desperately want to see succeed – Conner fits the bill this season after battling back from Hodgkin’s lymphoma in an unbelievably courageous way where he wouldn’t allow himself to fail and wouldn’t allow his teammates to feel sorry for him. Simply put, there’s no questioning his resilience, toughness or dedication to the game. Conner is a power back who doesn’t excel at making people miss, leaving many to think he’d be best served as a short yardage specialist or committee back. He lacks dynamic ability but could find himself in the DeAngelo Williams backup role which we’ve seen can be pretty productive. While no threat to Le’Veon Bell, this is a player to take late in your draft just to follow him and hope he can be successful.
3 (104) – San Francisco 49ers: CJ Beathard, QB Iowa
There were a lot of surprising picks this year and this one actually ranks pretty highly for me. Beathard (or as my spellcheck now attempts say “Boatyard” as it gets as tired as I am after 5,000 words today) has always been little more than a game manager. He was very rarely asked to do much through the air and the pick is stunning with players like Nathan Peterman, Brad Kaaya, Josh Dobbs and Chad Kelly still on the board. The thought of “Boatyard” against the Rams or Seahawks should scare 49ers fans to death. Perhaps I’m very wrong with this but I won’t be spending any rookie pick to find out.
3 (100) – Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith, TE FIU
Smith was actually taken in three of our ten four round mock drafts, giving him a rookie ADP of 56. Smith tore up the combine and will have a chance to be the eventual replacement for Delanie Walker or as my spellcheck continues to attempt – Melanie Walker. He’s likely going to go undrafted in all but very deep rookie drafts, especially with a tight end class this deep.
3 (98) – Arizona Cardinals: Chad Williams, WR Grambling State
Williams is another rookie sleeper who lands in a pretty good spot for one. Williams wasn’t expected to go this high, especially after a recent arrest for gun and marijuana possession and someone not even invited to the combine. Still, he was a great player in the SWAC and posted a more than respectable line of 90/1,337/11 last year. Anyone taken in round three needs to be monitored, so add Williams to the list.
3 (96) – Detroit Lions: Kenny Golladay, WR NIU
The Lions were rumored to be interested in receivers and they finally nabbed one in Golladay. He has the looks of a developmental prospect and needs major refinement before contributing. Still, he has talent and he’s a player to monitor as a later round pick in rookie drafts. He was all the way down at 58 in our rookie ADP so this is a true under the radar selection.
3 (89) – Houston Texans: D’Onta Foreman, RB Texas
This was a disappointing landing spot for Foreman. It would have been great to see him end up with a team like Green Bay but that’s just life dealing with the NFL Draft. He’ll slide in behind Lamar Miller and compete with Alfred Blue to be his primary backup. Foreman simply blew up last season, posting an insane 2,028 rushing yards (6.3 yards per carry) for Texas and has a large makeup at 6’1′ and 248 pounds. The challenge with Foreman is the fact he offers very little in the passing game (13 career catches) and that makes him likely part of a committee of some sort moving forward. Foreman’s ADP of 11 will likely dip into the mid-second round or even the early third of rookie drafts.
3 (87) – New York Giants: Davis Webb, QB NYG
Webb was seemingly a fast riser leading up to Day One but that proved to be a little bit of a smokescreen as Webb lasted all the way to the middle of round three. Still, the Giants found good value here and Webb could very well be the future quarterback for the Giants. He’ll be a late round pick at best in rookie drafts but he’s a player to watch in the off-season.
3 (86) – Kansas City Chiefs: Kareem Hunt, RB Toledo
I have little problem going on record saying this may be the steal of early running rookie drafts. Hunt has a current ADP of 21 and that’s bound to rise over the next few months as folks do their research on Hunt and the situation he finds himself in. He’s is no burner like Jamaal Charles but he’s a fluid runner who is ultra productive and seems to just do everything right…just without the speed to match. Hunt has enough talent to challenge Spencer Ware early in his career. Getting someone like that late in the second round could be worth the investment.
3 (84) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Godwin, WR Penn State
As we reach the end of round three, dynasty owners are going to start having to decide whether to go with talent or situation on their draft boards. If you want talent over situation, Godwin is your guy. He recorded 154 catches for 2,421 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns the last two seasons, including a 59/982/11 line in 2016. With Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries and OJ Howard all on the roster, it’s going to be a while until Godwin can ascend. However, this is an ultra-talented player who has all the ability to eventually become a starter in Tampa Bay. His ADP of 12 is likely going to slip but it won’t slip too much.
3 (82) – Denver Broncos: Carlos Henderson, WR Louisiana Tech
Of all the receivers who are going in a bunch in round three, Henderson may be the most intriguing. A dynamic special teams player who blew up for 82 catches, 1,535 yards and 19 touchdowns last season, Henderson has the look of a late bloomer. The Broncos have a lot of good receives on the roster but Henderson has a shot to work his way up the depth chart. The question with him is obvious. Did he simply thrive against inferior competition? It’s going to likely cost you a second round pick to find out.
3 (79) – New York Jets: ArDarius Stewart, WR Alabama
If you’re looking for production, you’re not going to find it. However, much like OJ Howard, Stewart was crippled by poor quarterback play at Alabama. Stewart really excels at creating yards after the catch and causing missed tackles. The concerns with Stewart revolve around his inconsistent hands and lack of production against the elite corners he faced. He’s likely a third round prospect moving forward.
3 (72) – Tennessee Titans: Taywan Taylor, WR Western Kentucky
Two things are clear to me now. One. The Titans were not sold on Tajae Sharpe and Rishard Matthews moving forward. Two. They are not afraid of taking receivers from small schools as they’ve paired Taylor (Western Kentucky) with Corey Davis (Western Michigan). Taylor is a sneaky pick in rookie drafts and will be listed as a sleeper on many lists this Summer. He is a great athlete who could thrive in the slot for the Titans.
3 (67) – LA Rams: Cooper Kupp, WR Eastern Washington
This one makes much more sense. The Rams are really lacking playmakers and Kupp brings amazing sub-level (FCS) production with an amazing 428 catches, 6,464 receiving yards and 73 touchdowns in his record breaking career. Kupp is limited in his athleticism but he’s seasoned and could make for a solid slot receiver for the Rams, who are in need of anyone who can catch footballs from Jared Goff. Kupp is a likely late second or early third round pick in 12-team rookie drafts.
3 (67) – New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara, RB Tennessee
This one is a curveball for sure. The Saints already have Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson but still decided to trade their second round pick to San Francisco to get Kamara, who some have described as a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey. The questions surrounding Kamara don’t revolve around his talent but more his lack of experience and just how he could handle a heavy load. Dynasty owners would have certainly loved to see him go to Washington, Green Bay or another place he could have started but again, patience could be rewarded with Kamara, whose ADP of seven is going to tumble. Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson have company in what looks like a very crowded backfield.
ROUND TWO
2 (52) – Pittsburgh Steelers: JuJu Smith Schuster, WR USC
The Steelers are near legendary in their evaluation of receivers and Smith-Schuster is a very intriguing pick here. Once thought of a sure-fire first rounder and even top ten pick, Smith Schuster has largely disappointed, despite a tremendous amount of physical ability. The Steelers are obviously not sold on Martavis Bryant staying out of trouble and they’re one team who could really develop JuJu. He’s an intriguing pick who could go in round two of a dynasty draft.
2 (52) – Cleveland Browns: DeShone Kizer, QB Notre Dame
The Browns settle for Kizer at #52 and it still feels like a reach. Kizer really needed to go somewhere he could develop and Cleveland just isn’t the place. He needs time to refine his decision making and anyone who takes Kizer has to hope the Browns stay patient long enough and don’t just throw him to the wolves. They haven’t historically been able to do that and Kizer’s confidence will be tested.
2 (48) – Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma
It’s not our job to set your moral compass – it’s our job to analyze talent and how it could impact dynasty leagues. That being said, Mixon could go anywhere in a draft depending on how your fellow owners feel about him and his past transgressions. We’ll just leave it at that.
On the talent front, Mixon is as good as they come. He’s been compared to Adrian Peterson, David Johnson and just about any other dominant back of the past decade. He’s averaged nearly seven yards per carry for his career and will likely have no problem jumping Jeremy Hill as the starter in Cincinnati, sharing some duties with Gio Bernard. There are obvious character questions (where else would he go if he had those) and the Bengals are risking a PR nightmare but they’ve been down similar roads before. If you believe in Mixon’s talent and believe he’s matured, you can make a case for him anywhere in a rookie draft. His ADP with DLF is that of the fourth overall player taken and he’s certainly going to be in the mix at the top with the likes of Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis, Christian McCaffrey and Mike Williams.
2 (45) – Chicago Bears: Adam Shaheen, TE Ashland
Yes. Ashland.
Shaheen is 6’6″, weighs 278 pounds, runs a 4.8 40 and was super productive. There are serious questions about the level of competition he faced, however. Much like Everett, Shaheen is a former basketball player and will need time to develop. However, he’s yet another tight end with major upside in a draft full of them. Shaheen will be a third or fourth round selection in most rookie drafts.
2 (44) – LA Rams: Gerald Everett, TE South Alabama
Here’s another basketball player turned tight end. Everett is a physical freak of a human being. He’s very raw as a player but may honestly have the highest ceiling of any tight end in the draft – the problem is he may have the lowest floor as well. This selection puts a nice little pin in the balloon of Tyler Higbee. It’s going to take Everett a long time to make an impact but owners who have patience could really be rewarded.
2 (40) – Minnesota Vikings: Dalvin Cook, RB FSU
The fall ends here.
Cook dropped in the draft due to a combination of his recurring shoulder problems, off the field issues and horrible combine performance. That being said, he has some of the best tape out there and may be the most talented running back in this entire class. The landing spot isn’t great as the Vikings already have Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. However, Murray’s contract calls for $5.15 million in 2018 and $4.4 million in 2019, making it relatively easy for them to release him if he doesn’t perform well. It’s not hard to see that as the Vikings offensive line is one of (if not the) worst in football. The silver lining for dynasty owners is the fact Cook is destined to fall in rookie drafts now as well. If he is truly as talented as some think, he could have the featured job in a year or two and be a steal in the middle of the first round of a rookie draft.
2 (40) – Carolina Panthers: Curtis Samuel, WR Ohio State
Boy, the Panthers have decided they want their offense to be a little more creative, eh? They’ve taken two incredibly talented and diverse players in McCaffrey and now Curtis Samuel. The Panthers now have the ability to get the ball out quickly and have playmakers to do something with it. After all, this is a player who caught 74 passes for 865 yards and also rushed 97 times for 771 yards and scored a total of 15 touchdowns last season. Samuel should be taken in round two of rookie drafts this off-season.
2 (37) – Buffalo Bills: Zay Jones, WR East Carolina
A favorite of the draft community, Jones lands in Buffalo and could make for a great combination with Sammy Watkins. Jones’ transition should be a smooth one as well considering his college receiver coach is now performing the same duties in Buffalo. His pre-draft rookie ADP is that of #23 but he could rise up now that a team has invested this heavily in him. I could see Jones easily going early in round two now. This is player to watch for sure.
ROUND ONE
That brings an end to round one. There are a ton of players on the board for tomorrow including the likes of DeShone Kizer, Nathan Peterman, Brad Kaaya, Davis Webb, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, D’Onta Foreman, Samaje Perine, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Dede Westbrook, Gerald Everett and I need to stop now….
1 (29) – Cleveland Browns: David Njoku, TE Miami
One of the worst kept secrets in draft circles seemed to be the Steelers being interested in Njoku. We’ll never know if that was true but the Browns didn’t take any chances and traded one spot ahead of Pittsburgh to get him. Njoku has crazy athleticism with the size and speed to be a matchup nightmare. He’ll join up with Gary Barnidge early on here and could emerge to be a serious weapon in Cleveland. His ADP of 16 may slip a bit because of the uncertainty at quarterback in Cleveland but Njoku has as much upside as nearly anyone in this draft.
1 (23) – New York Giants: Evan Engram, TE Ole Miss
This is a great landing spot for Engram as the Giants are thin at the position with just Will Tye and Jerell Adams on the roster. There are many mouths to feed in New York with Brandon Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr., and Sterling Shepard but Engram is supremely talented and can line up anywhere. In time, he should be a great weapon for the Giants, though it may be after Marshall moves on. The sky is the limit for Eli Manning with this crew they’ve assembled. Keep in mind Engram is in our own Ryan McDowell’s top five (drafted players) and his overall TE1 for this draft.
1 (19) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OJ Howard, TE Alabama
Wow.
The fall of Howard was a drastic one but the Bucs are going to benefit. While criminally underused at Alabama, Howard has the ability to catch and block with the best of them. He’s widely regarded as the best tight end in a loaded class (perhaps one reason why he dropped) and Tampa could have never imaged a top ten talent like Howard dropping this far. This selection puts Cameron Brate on notice, though dynasty owners need to remember it takes time for tight ends to develop and expecting immediate returns from Howard wouldn’t be wise. His pre-draft rookie ADP was ten and that seems about right. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook is running out of teams looking for a running back in round one. Could the Packers be a possibility?
1 (12) – Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson
The Texans traded up with the Browns to presumably jump the Cardinals and grab a quarterback who is a proven winner. There are legitimate questions about Watson’s decision making but he’s a poised player who will immediately command respect from the locker room because he’ll simply work hard and earn it. Watson will undoubtedly be fast-tracked to take over for incumbent starter Tom Savage and be given every chance to start when he’s ready. He’s in the mix with Mahomes and Trubisky to be the first quarterback taken and his ADP of 39 is the highest of the three – that likely won’t change. If Watson can develop quickly, his addition could be good news for DeAndre Hopkins. The thing Watson has over the other quarterbacks in this class is a ton of experience. Keep in mind he torched an Alabama team loaded with NFL prospects not once, but twice.
1 (10) – Kansas City Chiefs: Pat Mahomes II, QB Texas Tech
Andy Reid may have finally seen enough check downs from Alex Smith. The Chiefs are taking the plunge with Mahomes, who proved to be one of the fastest risers in the off-season. Mahomes is the ultimate gunslinger who can make throws other people on this planet could only dream of. The problem is that arm talent has led to him developing some awful habits. Sounds a little like a young Brett Favre, eh? Mahomes will likely sit for a while and learn from Smith, who now clearly has his heir apparent on the roster. He has a higher ceiling than perhaps any quarterback in this draft but also has a lower floor. If you feel lucky around rounds three or four, here’s your guy!
1 (9) – Cincinnati Bengals: John Ross, WR Washington
The Bengals are taking the plunge with the fastest player in NFL combine history. The great news for the Bengals is that speed shows up on game day with Ross. Most followers here know I’m a Washington Husky follower and season ticket holder. I can tell you I’ve witnessed an extraordinarily special player in Ross the past few years. There are questions about his knees and those are valid. There are also questions about him being a one trick pony and I believe those are invalid. It’s a risky pick for sure but one that could have a tremendous payoff. Ross could be the next DeSean Jackson or the next Antonio Brown. Regardless, the Bengals have themselves an amazing playmaker who will test Andy Dalton’s arm on a weekly basis. Ross has a current rookie ADP of 9 and that seems about right for a player with a high ceiling but one who will not be a WR1 with AJ Green on the roster.
1 (8) – Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford
It was no smokescreen after all.
The Panthers are moving on from the Jonathan Stewart era and hitching their wagon to McCaffrey. It’s going to be fascinating to see just how they use him moving forward. McCaffrey is the ultimate swiss army knife who can run the ball, play the slot, return kicks or punts or even split out wide. Many are in the camp that his ceiling is that of Darren Sproles, while others see the second coming of LeSean McCoy. The Panthers are obviously thinking he can be the ultimate game changer since they took him in the top ten. His goal line carries are going to take a hit with Cam Newton but my bet is McCaffrey finds a way to run the ball 8-10 times and catch 3-5 passes a game – certainly worth a long look in PPR leagues. McCaffrey will be squarely in the discussion at the very top of rookie drafts moving forward.
1 (7) – LA Chargers: Mike Williams, WR Clemson
Williams joins Davis in the top seven of the draft and it’s really no shock to see him go early. Williams really helped himself by running in the 4.5 range and his game tape shows a player who can dominate at times. There is concern that Williams won’t be dynamic enough to be more than a possession receiver but the Chargers clearly feel otherwise. If Keenan Allen can get himself healthy, this could be a very dangerous 1-2 combination. At 6’4″ and 218 pounds, he should be a monster in the red zone and give Philip Rivers a great target. If Williams can prove he can create separation at the next level, he could be a dominant player for years to come. Dabo Swinney once said he was a more complete player than Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins – that’s not bad. Williams will be in the mix in the top five of rookie drafts for sure.
1 (5) – Tennessee Titans: Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan
With the Titans in need of a true game changer, they go for their guy in Davis at #5 instead of risking him being on the board when they picked again at #18. With this receiver, they get a player who set the record books on fire with a massive 331 catches, 5,278 receiving yards and 52 touchdowns. He also increased his production every year in college. Davis is polished, precise, athletic and productive. The challenge here is the competition level he faced – after all, he’s only the second receiver ever taken from the MAC in the first round of the NFL Draft. Still, he has the best tape of any receiver in the draft and his run after the catch ability is amazing. He’s been at the top of our draft board all off-season and that’s unlikely to change.
1 (4) – Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Fournette, RB LSU
With a much less surprising selection, the Jaguars have taken the first running back off the board with Leonard Fournette. He’s one of the most hyped running backs in recent history and the Jags have to hope he can impact things the same way last year’s #4 pick (Ezekiel Elliott) did for Dallas. The challenge here is the Jacksonville offensive line is not nearly as good. There are questions about Fournette’s durability since he’s such a pounder and has dealt with issues before. There are also questions about just how well he’s going to do as a pass catcher. Still, this is one of the most talented running backs we’ve seen in recent years and he’ll be squarely in the mix for a top three pick in rookie drafts.
1 (2) – Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, QB North Carolina
Wow.
It took all of about ten minutes for the draft to have a major shakeup. The Bears traded up one spot with the 49ers to take Trubisky with the second overall pick. It’s a landing spot that comes as a shocker since the Bears seemed to have hitched their wagon to Mike Glennon, at least in the short term. Trubisky will undoubtedly come in and have an opportunity to start right away, though the Bears are in position to let him sit back and learn until he’s ready. Glennon’s “three year” contract now looks like a one year bridge to Trubisky. Chicago is a tough place for a quarterback to grow but he’ll have every chance to do that and make the Chicago fans forget about the Jay Cutler era. He’ll need players like Kevin White and Cameron Meredith to grow up quickly to be successful. He’ll be in the mix to be the first quarterback taken in dynasty leagues and his pre-draft rookie ADP of 44 may go up a bit – just don’t expect it to climb too much.
Pre-Draft
Here we go!
There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty about this draft and it seems more and more likely we’ll see some surprises as most teams believe it’s a deep draft and are willing to move down to acquire more picks – this could open the door for teams who have fallen in love with a prospect to jump in and send the draft a major curveball.
The confusion starts at the top as Myles Garrett no longer seems like a lock for the first pick as Mitchell Trubisky seems to be making a late run to be the first player taken by his hometown Browns. Could the Browns really be taking the player many think would be there for them at #12 at the top instead?
It seems now that it would be a real surprise not to see at least two running backs taken in the first ten picks as both Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey seem to be locked in to the top of the draft. Dalvin Cook and even Alvin Kamara could join them in the first round as well.
As for receivers, Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross all seem to be in play for round one. The challenge here is trying to figure out who goes first. Depending on which mock you believe, it could by any of them.
Quarterbacks are always overdrafted because they’re so important. Expect Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and possibly even the late climbing Davis Webb to join Trubisky in round one.
This tight end class is one of the best in recent memory. OJ Howard seems to be a sure bet for the first ten picks. Other solid dynasty league prospects like David Njoku and Evan Engram could join him later tonight.
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Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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