32 Teams, 32 IDP Questions: NFC South
At this point of the NFL off-season there tend to be a lot more questions than answers. Nowhere is this truer than on the defensive side of the ball. I always say the two most nerve racking times for IDP owners are the week after the regular season ends and Draft weekend. The week after the season ends, or “Black Monday” as it has come to be known, leads to coaching changes, which leads to defensive scheme changes, which can turn a legit IDP squad into a hot mess overnight. Draft weekend can also wreak havoc on IDP rosters when players are unexpectedly drafted to teams who weren’t expected to add talent at the position. Usually this only affects the fringe talent at the linebacker position, guys like Paul Worrilow.
In the “32 Teams, 32 IDP Questions” we’re going to break down each NFL division, team by team, and ask the most pressing IDP questions facing each club. It may deal with overall scheme changes, position battles or draft related strategy. Today’s focus is the NFC South.
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Atlanta Falcons
“After an amazing sophomore campaign for Vic Beasley, can he do it again?”
It always kills me when people try writing a player off after a so-so rookie campaign. It’s pretty rare for a rookie pass rusher to come in and set the league one fire. Adjusting to not being the most physically gifted athlete on the field takes time and often development in one’s technique. As was the case with Beasley, he played defensive end during his rookie year and finished with four sacks on the season. Prior to last season the team moved him to strong side linebacker and things clicked in a big way. Playing on a revamped defense loaded with extremely young and promising talent, he exploded with a league leading 15.5 sacks and 39 total tackles.
Now entering his third season, he’ll experience raised expectations and extra attention from opposing teams, so what can we expect? After surrendering a 25-point lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the team surprisingly replaced defensive coordinator Richard Smith with secondary coach Marquand Manuel. Manuel has been with Dan Quinn both in Seattle and the University of Florida, so we can expect the overall defensive scheme to stay pretty close to the same.
With second year players Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Keanu Neal all expected to take another step forward after impressive rookie campaigns, Beasley will once again be asked to carry the load as the featured pass rusher. It’s hard to predict of he’ll repeat as league sack champion but it won’t be for lack of opportunity. Beasley should once again flirt with 15 sacks but his low tackle numbers make him a boom or bust IDP prospect, which is ok, but you just have to know the risk you’re taking for a player who can single handedly win you a week.
Carolina Panthers
“Does Julius Peppers have enough left in the tank to be an IDP asset for 2017?”
Julius Peppers signing a one year contract with the Panthers isn’t just a homecoming for Peppers and the Panthers, it’s also a homecoming for IDP players as he’ll return to a defensive end after spending the last three seasons as an outside linebacker in Green Bay. It’s amazing that in his 15 year career he has finished with fewer than seven sacks just once and double digit sacks nine times. Now 37 years old and his best days behind him, he’ll make his impact as a situational pass rusher and sack specialist on a defensive line featuring one of the game’s elite defensive tackles in Kawann Short.
The Panthers re-signed Charles Johnson to a two year contract this off-season who then immediately underwent back surgery and will probably miss OTAs. With Kony Ealy now a New England Patriot, the top of the depth chart is manned by Mario Addison who signed a three year, $22.5 million contract this offseason but might be stretched as a team’s featured pass rusher. When week one rolls around Peppers and Johnson will be a combined 150 years old (68 actually) so the Panthers should look to the draft to find a legit difference maker at defensive end to learn from Peppers in 2017. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Peppers once again finishes with double digit sacks this year, actually I expect it.
New Orleans Saints
“What in the heck are the Saints going to do with all of these linebackers they’ve acquired?”
This off-season the Saints have acquired Manti Te’o and A.J. Klein to go with Dannell Ellerbe, Craig Robertson and the apparently forgotten Stephone Anthony. They have also been heavily linked to incoming prospect Reuben Foster of Alabama. The current depth chart shows Klein starting in the middle being flanked by Ellerbe at WILL and Robertson at SAM but Ellerbe will be lucky to fight off the competition. If Te’o can recover from the torn Achilles he suffered last year he can win the strong side job and slide Robertson to the more IDP friendly weak side.
Klein is currently the only one I trust as a lock IDP asset after he signed a three year, $15 million contract this spring. He comes over from the division rival Panthers and will slide into an every down role to start the season. His play was up and down filling in for the injured Luke Kuechly last year. He played fairly well against the run but there were too many times he got beat in pass coverage by getting caught looking into the backfield. He’ll now play on a defense which gets thrown on a ton due to the pace and effectiveness of Drew Brees and company.
For IDP purposes I rank these linebackers Klein, Robertson, Te’o, Anthony and Ellerbe. I rank Anthony over Ellerbe because I don’t believe Ellerbe will ever re-gain his once promising form and I hope Anthony will get a second life, whether it be in New Orleans or on a new team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“What do we do with Noah Spence amid rumors of a switch to SAM linebacker?”
I wouldn’t panic just yet but there are rumors the Bucs will play second year defensive end Noah Spence at strong side linebacker this year. It would obviously be a hit to his IDP value if he loses his defensive end eligibility but statistically I don’t see it having much of an impact. The team is hoping for a big leap in his second year much like the Falcons got out of Vic Beasley in 2016 and it might not be that farfetched.
The Bucs have fortified their defensive front with the addition of key free agent Chris Baker, formerly of the Washington Redskins, to pair with Gerald McCoy and a group of serviceable rotational defensive ends. They also have two stud linebackers in Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David. If defensive coordinator Mike Smith can maximize the potential and skill set of Spence he could easily better double digit sacks. We just have to hope it comes from the defensive end position in IDP leagues. Otherwise he goes from a high to mid DE2 to a sack dependent boom or bust fringe LB3/4.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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