Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One

Jacob Feldman

The dark, barren football off-season is finally approaching an end. The light at the end of the tunnel is almost here. With the NFL draft in just a few days, all of our dynasty leagues are getting ready to kick into gear. I think the majority of rookie drafts will be held over the next month, which makes it time to really get to work in your rookie evaluations if you haven’t been doing so already. Don’t worry, we have been killing it here at DLF with articles on the top 50 rookies, strategy pieces and everything else!

I’m also back with another mock draft to help you get acquainted with this draft class. This will actually be one of two mock drafts you’ll be seeing in the next week or two, but we are going to do a pre-NFL draft mock as well as a post-NFL draft mock. Hopefully, between the two of them, it will help to paint a picture of each and every prospect to help jump start your draft process or help you refine your own rankings as you prepare for your draft.

For this mock, we did three rounds with twelve teams. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. At this point in the process, we are still focusing on the player’s traits. With the NFL draft still to play out, there will of course be changes. Some players will leap up the board and others will tumble down, which is why we’ll be back in a few days with another mock. A lot has changed from the first mock a few months ago, and things will continue to change as we move forward. There will of course be misses and disagreements, but that is a part of the fun! Enjoy!

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1.01 – Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan

Adam T’s thoughts: Being at the top spot when trading back isn’t an option leaves a lot of pressure to take who you feel is the best rookie overall, and I did just that. While his level of competition is lower than other receivers in this class, the tape doesn’t lie for Davis. He shows that he can run the entire route tree at a high level, and do it from all different parts of the formation. Davis shows he has top level speed on the field at his size, without workouts, and in dynasty WRs are king which led me to take him first overall.   

My thoughts:  Going back several months, this draft was all about Fournette at the top. Then sometime around the combine, Davis started to become a very common name. That’s a little ironic considering Fournette dominated the combine and Davis didn’t do anything due to an injury. I think Adam did the right thing though. I too have Davis as my top rookie this year. He has the potential to be a dynasty WR1 for years to come. I don’t know that he’ll reach that elite tier of receivers, but he could definitely be in that next tier and make his owners very happy for five-eight years.

1.02 Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford

Ryan’s thoughts:  When I landed the second overall pick, I planned to take Corey Davis, but with him off the board, I was left with my choice of the four top running backs. These players have flip-flopped quite a bit in my rankings throughout the pre-draft process, but with slight concerns about Leonard Fournette’s injury history, I surprised myself in taking McCaffrey. The former Stanford back seems like one of the safest options at the top of the draft with a clean medical history and no off-field concerns, not to mention the impact he can make in all areas of the game.

In PPR leagues, he gets a boost and if your league happens to include special teams scoring, he looks even better as the top running back off the board. McCaffrey has been rising up the boards for NFL teams too, by all accounts. He reportedly has a “promise” by a team in the middle of the first round and has recently been rumored to land inside the top ten.

My thoughts:  We didn’t need to wait long for the first major curve ball of this mock draft. Ryan made what many would consider a bold decision to take McCaffrey as the first running back off the board. A lot of people will blink at this, but McCaffrey is a beast. He is one of the most versatile players in this draft class. If he was just a receiver, he would probably be a top ten receiver in this draft class. If he lands on a quality team, I think McCaffrey going in the top three could be a very common occurrence. I hope not, because I would love to have him in the middle of the first in a few of my leagues, but I don’t think that will happen.

1.03– Leonard Fournette, RB LSU 

Matt P’s thoughts: I was a bit surprised to see Fournette fall to three but was more than happy to select him here. While I believe Christian McCaffrey to be running back in the 2017 draft with the highest floor, to me it is undeniable that Leonard Fournette is the one with the highest ceiling. Since running a 4.51 40-yard dash at the combine, Fournette slimmed down to a svelte 228 at his pro day where he also showed off his receiving ability. Some believe him to be just a two-down back at the NFL level, but to me he has the makings of a true workhorse feature back if he goes to a team that will design the offense around him. He has been mocked to both Jacksonville at fourth overall and Carolina at pick eight. Both see like great destinations with a Fournette-shaped hole just waiting to add this piece to their puzzle. 

My thoughts: A few months ago it was almost beyond comprehension that Fournette would “fall” to the third pick in the draft, but with the rise of players like Davis, McCaffrey, and even Mixon I think it is something we could see from time to time. Fournette is without a doubt in my mind the best rusher in this draft class. Him falling to third is just a reminder that today’s running back position involves so much more than just carrying the ball. The marks against Fournette center around his ability in the passing game, both as a blocker and a pass catcher, and his injury issues. If he can stay healthy and manage to catch 30-40 passes a year, he has the ability to be a perennial top three running back. That might be a big if though.

1.04 – Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State

Matt F’s thoughts: With Davis, Fournette and McCaffrey off the board, Dalvin Cook was my top option at 1.04. Despite his questionable athletic profile, Cook is likely to make an immediate impact as a complete, three-down back with a well-rounded skill set at the NFL level. If he goes to a team like the Eagles who desperately need a guy they can plug into the feature role, fantasy owners can expect big things.   

My thoughts:  Cook is the ultimate film vs metric guy in this year’s draft. Those who watch his film definitely see Cook as a dynamic playmaker who can be a complete back at the next level. Those who favor the metrics see a player who is going to struggle when trying to make the transition to the NFL game due to a lack of athletic ability. The question you need to answer is which camp do you think is more valid? I’ve seen people with him anywhere from the top running back on their board all the way down to fifth or sixth. I think where he goes in the NFL draft will have a pretty big impact on Cook being a top three rookie pick or more of a middle first rounder.

1.05  Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma

Joseph’s thoughts: I think Mixon is the most talented running back in this class, and I discussed him at length in this piece. If it weren’t for his horrible off-field incident, he’d easily be my 1.01, and as the draft approaches, it seems more and more likely that he’ll be selected in the first two rounds. Mixon is a smooth runner and incredibly natural receiver. His big-play ability and pass-catching prowess suggests that he’ll be a three-down back with the floor of an effective change-of-pace runner.

My thoughts:   I wrote the DLF rookie profile on Mixon, so you can take a look there for all the details of my thoughts on him. The short version is that I don’t think he is the best rusher nor the best receiver in this draft class due to a few holes in both areas, but he is very near the top of both lists. This just might make him the most complete running back in this draft class. If he lands on a good team in the first two rounds of the rookie draft, he could go even higher than this in rookie drafts. If he slips to day three in the NFL draft, I think Mixon will be more of a middle round pick even with all of his talent.

1.06 – Mike Williams, WR Clemson

Dan’s thoughts:  The top six rookies seem pretty chalky at this point, and the sixth pick is basically just getting leftovers. Williams is a fairly promising prospect, but I see him as the least safe alongside McCaffrey. As a player who wins mostly with his explosiveness and leaping ability, the combine numbers left us wanting more. His strength, stature, and ability to win on 50/50 balls are what make him desirable. His neck injury (2015), lazy drops, and limited route tree are the things that concern me the most, as well as his apparent need to jump for every ball thrown his way. Also, playerprofiler.com has his best comparable (based on metrics) as Laquon Treadwell. Yikes.

My thoughts:  It doesn’t surprise me that Williams ended up being the 1.06 pick in this draft. With how things have been trending over the last few months, it seems the top four has turned into a top six with Williams occupying the last spot more often than not. I’m not a huge fan of Williams, because I see a very similar player to Kelvin Benjamin, who I don’t really like. To me, Williams can’t separate, lacks athletic ability, and is at best a number two option for an NFL team. We will see what NFL teams think very soon.

1.07 – OJ Howard, TE Alabama 

Scott’s thoughts:  1.07 is a tough spot to pick. Best available talent is at tight end. Historically using first round rookie picks on tight ends usually doesn’t work out. Still, this is the best tight end class in several years, and maybe this year will be different. OJ Howard is an elite talent and has rare ability. I’ll take my chances with him.

My thoughts:  Scott is dead on when it comes to tight end. Historically, it is one of if not the most difficult position when it comes to adjusting to the pro game. Most tight ends take a few years to transition, if they ever make it. It is part of why buying them after a year is a pretty sound strategy. This year’s class could be different though. It has been a long time since I’ve seen tight end prospects with this combination of size, speed, and ability. Of the group, Howard is the most well rounded. His lack of consistent production in college is a little concerning, but his mix of size, blocking ability, and athletic ability is very intriguing. I expect the seventh pick in rookie drafts to be a regular spot for Howard, especially in tight end premium leagues.    

1.08 – Juju Smith-Schuster, WR USC

Mike’s thoughts:   Smith-Schuster didn’t have the best of seasons last year, after thriving in 2015. Most of his disappointing performance can be placed on the failures of quarterback Max Browne, but he did pick up steam with freshman Sam Darnold. Smith-Schuster’s 6’2”, 220 pound frame is a “wide receiver body”. He uses it well and knows how to shield off defenders. He has strong hands and will grasp the ball in a vice grip. He wreaks havoc on the defense as he bowls over defenders, blocks, and has excellent ball tracking skills.  My biggest worry is that Smith-Schuster had trouble against press coverage at the college level.

My thoughts:  Will the real Juju please stand up? If his 2016 went like his 2015, we would likely be talking about him as a potential 1.01 selection. Unfortunately for him, 2016 really exposed some of the holes in his game. He isn’t athletic enough to overcome bad quarterback play, and he profiles more as the second option on an NFL team rather than a true WR1. He is fearless and great at the point of the catch, but if he can’t separate from college corners, how will he fair against NFL defenders? The Anquan Boldin comparisons are pretty fair when it comes to Juju’s ceiling.

1.09 – Alvin Kamara, RB Tennessee

My thoughts:   I wasn’t very happy with my options at this point in the draft. Everyone seems like a reach here, but someone needs to go off the board. Kamara is a player who seems to be fairly polarizing in this year’s draft class. Actually, now that I think about it, there are some strong feelings about almost every non-tight end who you could consider at this point in the draft. This is really the point in the draft where there are about six-eight players who are all fairly equal in terms of value, and in a non-TE premium league I’m trying to trade out of this spot for a pick a few slots later and a future pick in 2018.

Getting back to Kamara, there are definitely two camps on him. Those who are in favor of him typically view him as the fifth best running back in this draft class. The positives are looking at his combine, as well as those flashes in college as just teasing us for what he can become. The upside is definitely there. His detractors look at his lack of a workload and his injuries as major red flag. He hasn’t ever been a bellcow, so many question how we can expect him to be that in the NFL. When you mix in the off the field issues, there are definitely some concerns here. Ultimately, I think where Kamara gets drafted and when he gets drafted will have a big impact on his dynasty draft position. He could go as high as 1.07 or tumble all the way down into the middle of the second round depending on what happens in a few days.

1.10 – John Ross, WR Washington

Travis’s thoughts:   It seems that nearly everyone hates John Ross for some reason.  However, the truth is that he’s most likely going to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft this year.  When you run a 4.22-second 40-yard dash people generally start paying attention if they weren’t already.  His ability to win routes early and track deep will help him find early success as well.  Yes, Ross’ slight frame and injury history seem worrisome, but at the tenth pick of rookie drafts the value is definitely there.  If he lands in a spot with a deep-throwing quarterback, John Ross could offer high-ceiling flex value in year one.

My thoughts:  I think I know the source of the hate. Every year there seems to be a receiver who is 6’ tall or shorter who runs a sub 4.35 second 40 yard dash. The issue is, guys like Marquise Goodwin, JJ Nelson, Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett and Tavon Austin are the guys who have done it recently. None of them are currently fantasy starters. Some of them still have a chance to turn into something, but it hasn’t happened yet. Now, could Ross be the one who breaks the trend? There is definitely that chance. Aside from the injuries, he seems to have what it takes. For me, the larger concern for me isn’t if he can produce it is getting him to produce with consistency at the NFL level. Ultimately, I think Ross will be a better NFL player than a fantasy player for that reason.

1.11 – Evan Engram, TE Mississippi

Eric’s thoughts:  I really like getting this amount of upside in the late first. Engram is a pass catching tight end first and foremost; I think an NFL team will understand this when they draft him. He does have some size issues if he is miscast as an inline TE, but he is a great blocker when you compare him to wide receivers. Speaking of receiver comparisons, some of his closest physical and athletic comparables according to mockdraftable.com are Quincy Enunwa, Demaryius Thomas, and Josh Gordon. Those are the type of physically dominant WRs we are all looking for. I honestly don’t care whether he ends up technically being called WR or TE, because of hands, body control, and physical profile scream elite pass catching upside.

My thoughts: One of the biggest risers over the last few months, Engram has been sneaking into the back end of the first round in a few drafts now. Unless it is a tight end premium league, I think the early second round is a bit more common place for him, but I have no issues with him here. Ultimately his landing spot will determine where he goes in rookie drafts, but he oozes athletic ability. His game is a little raw in a lot of respects, and he might need some time to transition to the NFL game, but he could turn into a more athletic Jordan Reed if he ends up on the right team. 

1.12 – David Njoku, TE Miami

Zach’s thoughts: I think this shows a tier break for me pre-draft. There wasn’t anyone here that I really loved, but I think Njoku is the most likely true difference maker remaining on the board. Starting at pick 18 in the NFL draft, I see about 12 teams at the end of the first where he could make a long term impact. I like those odds better than any of the backs or receivers still available. While he is a raw talent, there is plenty of upside for this young tight end.   

My thoughts: It will be very interesting to see the order the NFL drafts the big three tight ends in this week. I’ve seen them go in several different orders in rookie drafts with the last of the three going in the early to middle second round in most cases. Here we see the last one go with the 12th pick. Ultimately, I think the NFL draft order will determine not just the order but also how high they go in rookie drafts. Njoku is similar to Engram in a lot of ways, but is slightly bigger. I think Njoku could turn into a complete tight end, but he’s pretty raw.

That’s it for round one. We will be back with the second and third rounds very soon! Which picks so far are surprising to you?

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jacob feldman