IDP Dynasty Startup Philosophy
Jeff Miller was recently on the Dynasty Tradecast pod. Nathan Powell announced they were going to talk about dynasty philosophy and Jeff surprised him by basically saying “I don’t have a strategy. I just see what happens and react accordingly”. It was awesome.
I’ve said many times that the biggest enemy we have in this game is certainty. None of us can accurately predict what will happen even though we think we can because a few of our punts happen to come true each season. Someone told me the other day he was sure he’s a good scout because he accurately predicted OBJ would be a really good player. A tweet I saw today claimed quarterback scouting genius because the Tweeter predicted Dak Prescott would be good. A single swallow doesn’t make a summer.
Anyway, having been inspired by the conversation I thought I’d take a moment to put my own thoughts/philosophy/activity into words. Obviously this is not something I follow religiously but does explain how I generally go about things.
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Do not invest in IDPs immediately
I’m a defensive guy (ha!) so this might be a surprise, but I tend to avoid investing in IDPs in startup drafts until quite late on. That doesn’t mean I’m not confident of my rankings or ability to predict IDP success. It means I’m confident enough that I can get my defensive production to the point where it isn’t hampering my team’s chances with minimal investment.
Depending on a league’s settings this generally means trying to ensure I have options at positions where there is most scarcity. Typically this means DE and DT (in leagues where they have a premium) but very rarely LB, CB or S. I tend to let my league-mates invest in Kwon Alexander, Landon Collins, Marcus Peters and the rest. I believe I can restock at IDP better than most of my competitors (even allowing for some hubris) but I do not believe for a heartbeat that my ability to secure offensive talent is higher than theirs. So whilst high profile IDPs are coming off the board I’m stockpiling offensive depth. With one exception.
Don’t get caught up in the running back land-grab
This is no surprise and judging off current ADP this is basically accepted behaviour these days. RBs have exciting and high scoring but short and pain-filled careers. With those precious early round start-up picks I want to make sure I can secure some pieces that will be the cornerstone of my team for years to come. And that generally means WR over RB. Especially when plenty of my league-mates are doing the same thing. Of course one school of thought says zag whilst others zig but I tend to find that means that when my early RBs are having their hips replaced my opponents still have productive players.
I’m not going to ignore what looks like good value after the first few rounds but in all probability I’m going WR-WR-WR in a start-up.
Late quarterback, duh
Again this is de rigueur these days but still in many league I see people getting excited way too early about Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. I want to get the last starting QB in the league and following that up with another one pretty quickly. In a 12-team league I’m looking to draft the 12th and 13th QBs in an idea world.
IDP ranges
Aside from positions I need to ensure I grab early (as before that’s generally a top-tier DE and DT) I’m looking to apply these rules:
- At LB I want as many players in the 15-40 range as I can get. In practice this means I can grab underrated players, non-sexy names and veterans who have solid starting roles for a season or two. Vontaze Burfict, Lawrence Timmons, Thomas Davis, Derrick Johnson. Give me all of those guys. Later on in the draft I’ll start taking punts on players who aren’t well known but could just stumble into a productive role. AJ Klein, Edwin Jackson, Elandon Roberts etc.
- At S (assuming fairly standard scoring) I’m likely avoiding the perceived stars and trying to grab one or two of the less-heralded strong safeties around. I don’t want to pay for anyone at peak value but I do want a shot or two at volume in spots conducive to plentiful tackles.
- In almost all leagues I’ll leave corner until very, very late if I even pick any up in the start-up draft. Often I find myself not even bothering and simply waiting for the draft and camp to shake out and enable me to try and spot great opportunities.
- If the league is not DT-premium (but for some reason I’m still playing in it) then it’s also a position I’ll pretty much ignore. In those formats the point differential between elite and minimum-viable starters is so small that it’s not worth sacrificing valuable draft capital.
Waivers
After that sort of startup draft, during the first season or two I’m always on the lookout for help at RB especially but very likely also at LB, TE and QB. Between the startup draft, NFL draft and training camp I’ll be scouring news reports to try and secure as many players as possible who will likely see decent volume that season. I don’t care if they’re old or bad. If they’re in a spot to produce in that season only I want them.
Use rookie drafts in the first couple of years to throw lots of RB-shaped darts
The reason being is that in year one I’m trying to paper over the cracks. I should have a very solid core of players that will be long-term producers for me but with some glaring holes. Rather than try and trade for elite options there I want to ensure my team is competitive with short-term options. Not to the extent that I’ll give up excess resources but I’m planning on replacing these players soon anyway.
Subsequent rookie drafts
So this is where I’m finding those RBs that I know I need. I said earlier I don’t think I can find offensive talent better than anyone else but I do think I can be more single-minded than my opponents.
Most of those teams will have been much more even-handed than me in building their team so most teams will have more varied teams than me. Plenty of WRs go early in rookie drafts of course, and in IDP leagues LBs, DEs and maybe a S or two will also start going in round two. Contrary to them I will really only have one glaring need at this stage so I’m willing to expend all of my rookie picks on trying to find RBs. After I offload some of the short-term solutions I relied on in year one, I should have room on my roster to stash six or seven rookie backs in the hope that one or two become viable.
Building a defensive powerhouse
The time for me to shine here is from free agency through to training camp. My goal every year is to identify starters before my opponents and then trust volume turns into production often enough for me to field a top defense.
Using 2016 as an example I think I can find enough players like Zach Orr, Todd Davis, Antoine Bethea and Jahleel Addae to take my defense from okay to really good. I follow this up in-season by constantly searching for players who have picked up major roles. There’s simply no way to do this effectively besides pure legwork and I’m confident I can outwork my opponents to grab the breakouts in-season. IDP is short term enough that many of these players turn into good options going forwards. Very few are ten-year starters, but if they can be really solid for two or three years I’m happy.
What success looks like
Essentially, I’m trying to build a pretty formulaic team. I want to be solid at WR initially, continually searching for rookie talent at RB and using elbow-grease to simply outwork everyone else for defensive breakouts.
Obviously plans tend to not be so clear-cut in real life with 11 or more other owners involved and things can and will go wrong but by limiting and defining what I need to succeed I can more clearly allocate my time and resources to where they’re likely to be effective.
Summarizing
I don’t think this is any sort of genius plan. I don’t think I’m better at this game than other people. I just believe that given the low accuracy of all predictions in the fantasy football world, some sort of system (even one that will be abandoned sometimes) allows me the illusion of control. I don’t recommend anyone copies this plan. I just think it’s right for me and lets me play the way I want to play. Even if that tells you how you don’t want to play I hope it helps.
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