Strategy in Action: Value Picks

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 18, 2017

A couple of weeks ago when I kicked off the April version of the DLF Mock Drafts, the series of dynasty startup mocks used to formulate our monthly average draft position data, I decided I should once again employ a variety of strategies in team building.

A little bit of background information first. I first came upon this rather simple idea late in the off-season of 2016. In the August mock drafts, I chose six varying startup draft strategies and tried them all while participating in each of the monthly mock drafts. My plan was to detail each approach in a series of article, but eventually I ran out of time before the 2016 NFL season kicked off. The timing all around was poor on my part since most drafts of this type had wrapped anyway.

Now, with more time and startup draft season right around the corner, I chose April’s mocks to try the venture with one more time. In this series of articles, I’ll explain the plan I entered with, players I chose and how the plan might have changed along the way. I’ll also attempt to objectively point out the pros and cons of each tactic as a potential team building blueprint.

Before I examine the next mock draft, let me explain some ground rules I gave myself. First, I chose a strategy for each league before setup, meaning I was not aware of my draft position beforehand. I also gave myself an out of sorts, acknowledging that I would not necessarily stick to the predetermined plan if a huge value was staring me in the face.

The Strategy

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For DLF Dynasty Mock #2, I chose a unique strategy that was even more of an experiment than the other options I attempted. Obviously, dynasty owners are always looking for the best value with each pick made, so I chose to make each selection a “value pick.” I defined this by following March’s dynasty ADP, taking the top player available with each pick.

There are some obvious pros and cons with this idea, which I will focus on later. In order to build a somewhat balanced roster, I gave myself a cap of two total quarterbacks and tight ends, but instilled no other limits as far as when or how many players I would draft from specific positions.

The Draft

I drew the third pick in this mock draft, but draft spot matters little with this strategy of searching for value at each selection.

Here’s how my mock draft went:

1.03 David Johnson, RB ARZ

2.10 Leonard Fournette, RB ROOKIE

3.03 Dalvin Cook, RB ROOKIE

4.10 Travis Kelce, TE KC

5.03 DeVante Parker, WR MIA

6.10 Sterling Shepard, WR NYG

7.03 Randall Cobb, WR GB

8.10 Tyler Lockett, WR SEA

9.03 Will Fuller, WR HOU

10.10 Matt Ryan, QB ATL

11.03 Dak Prescott, QB DAL

12.10 Carlos Henderson, WR ROOKIE

13.03 Austin Hooper, TE ATL

14.10 Jamaal Williams, RB ROOKIE

15.03 Tajae Sharpe, WR TEN

16.10 Matt Forte, RB NYJ

17.03 Taywan Taylor, WR ROOKIE

18.10 Wayne Gallman, RB ROOKIE

19.03 Paul Richardson, WR SEA

20.10 Travis Benjamin, WR LAC

Relying strictly on the previous month’s ADP data could have been a dangerous task when it comes to team building, but this resulted in a balanced roster with a lot of young talent. Beginning the draft with three running backs is something I haven’t done in years, yet Johnson, Fournette and Cook is an inspiring set of building blocks, even in today’s pass-catcher driven dynasty leagues. After Kelce fell to the late fourth round, five consecutive wide receivers represented the best value.

I slightly hesitated to take back-to-back quarterbacks in the middle of the draft, but not only were Ryan and Prescott excellent values, they also allowed me to ignore the quarterback position for the final nine rounds. The move was vindicated when a leaguemate complained on the league chat about missing out on Prescott.

The remainder of my team was filled with one more tight end, Hooper and a collection of mostly young backs and receivers.

The Lineup

In these mock drafts, the supposed starting lineups consist of one each from the four key fantasy positions; quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, along with four flex spots, which could be a RB, WR or TE.

QB- Ryan

RB- D Johnson

WR- Cobb

TE- Kelce

FLEX- Forte

FLEX- Cook

FLEX- Parker

FLEX- Shepard

As can be expected when waiting until the fifth round to draft the first receiver, that position represents the weakness of my starting lineup. This team could still be a playoff contender though, on the back of top three players at running back and tight end, along with Ryan hoping to replicate a career year. To reach the playoffs, this team would need a pair of those young wide receivers to meet the once high expectations of dynasty players, along with a bounce back year for veterans Cobb and Forte.

The Pros

As I mentioned, there are some clear positives from this extreme draft strategy. The main plus is you are guaranteeing yourself of filling your team with value, as defined by the latest ADP data.

The Cons

Let’s be honest, with this idea, the cons outweigh the pros by far. First, players are usually falling for a reason. While many of the players I drafted represent excellent value, others are losing value since the March ADP was collected. The way the dynasty landscape and player value changes rapidly, what looked like a steal a month ago can be considered a reach today.

I mentioned how fortunate I was to come away with a relatively balanced team, but relying strictly on a data source to draft could result in a team too heavy with one position or another.

The Next Steps

After wrapping up the startup draft using this plan, a dynasty owner would likely need to make a few trades to simply balance out the roster and fill holes in the starting lineup. Obviously, using depth at one position would be the easiest way to accomplish this.

Upon reflection, it is crucial to find value when forming a team and participating in a dynasty draft, but following previous ADP strictly, or even loosely, could quickly create a multi-layered problem that would require several transactions to repair.

DLF Dynasty Mock #1 – Productive Struggle

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.