Rookie Profile: James Conner, RB Pittsburgh

Bruce Matson

Editor’s note: With the NFL Draft fast approaching, we’ll be covering the incoming skill position players in-depth with our rookie profiles. Using information from Player Profiler and Mock Draftable, we offer a taste of what each player has done, their athletic profile, and what they can achieve in the future.

Everyone loves the typical success story of a person who started from the bottom and worked their way to the top. It’s the “American Dream”, and what we all inspire to do in one way or another.  A story that I find even more compelling is when a person is considered world class in their field, experiences a dramatic situation that knocks them down to rock bottom and performs an epic comeback that requires them to claw and scrape their way back to the top of the mountain. It’s motivating to see someone revive their career or situation after seeing them experience a hardship that drops them to mere obscurity.

James Conner, running back from Pittsburgh was considered one of the top up and coming running back prospects in the nation until he tore his MCL during the season opener of his junior season. To make matters worse, he publicly announced he had Hodgkin lymphoma in December of 2015. In the following spring, he beat cancer and rigorously worked, so he could be in proper condition to hit the field for his redshirt junior season. After everything he been through, he heroically laced up his cleats and played in the 2016 season opener. Conner displayed a lot of fortitude, heart and persistence during his comeback journey and is now considered one of the top running back prospects in this year’s draft class. 

Conner was a three-star recruit from McDowell High School in Erie, Pennsylvania where he rushed for 1,680 yards and 21 touchdowns during his senior season. He was also a stellar pass rusher, setting a school record with 12 sacks in a single season and 17 sacks during his high school career. Despite his productive collegiate career, he was not a highly sought after prospects as he only received offers from smaller schools like Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, and Youngstown State. He decided to sign his letter of intent with Pittsburgh on February 6, 2013.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com

In 2013, Conner became the first true freshman to lead Pittsburgh in rushing since Dion Lewis in 2009 and he had four games with over 100 yards rushing. His best game of the season came during the Little Caesar’s Bowl when he rushed for 229 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries against Bowling Green, setting a school record for most yards in a single bowl game, a record that was previously held by the legend Tony Dorsett. He was also crowned the 2013 Little Caesar’s Bowl MVP.

Conner blew up during his sophomore season by rushing for 1,765 yards and 26 touchdowns, while surpassing the 100-yard mark seven times and exceeding the 200-yard mark three times. He also owned an incredible 32.42 percent market share of the team’s offensive production. During week ten against the Duke Blue Devils, he exploded for 263 yards and three touchdowns. Conner managed to set a Pitt single-season records in rushing touchdowns (26), total touchdowns (26), and points (156), all three of the records were previously set by Tony Dorsett. His 26 rushing touchdowns was also an ACC record and surpassed Ryan Williams’ (Virginia Tech) previous record of 21 rushing touchdowns which was set in 2009.

Like stated previously, Conner’s junior season ended abruptly during the season opener due to a torn MCL. The injury allowed him to receive a medical redshirt for his 2015 season.

After a brutal recovery from MCL surgery and Hodgkin lymphoma, Conner suited up to play for his redshirt junior season, rushing for 1,092 yards and 16 touchdowns while owning a 24.00 percent market share of the team’s offensive production. He surpassed the 100-yard mark six times with his best game taking place in week eight when he rushed for 141 yards and three touchdowns against Virginia Tech. Conner set ACC career records with 52 rushing touchdowns and 56 total touchdowns. He also ranks second in school history, trailing only Tony Dorsett, in career rushing yards (3,733), total touchdowns and rushing touchdowns.

I love Player Profiler as it’s one of my go-to websites for athletic and production metrics for NFL players and draft prospects. Let’s take a look and see what they have in store for James Conner.

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Conner ranks in the 73rd percentile with a 34.4 percent college dominator rating, which is the calculation of a running back’s total yards and touchdowns averaged out against the team’s total touchdowns and yards. Dominator rating displays how important a player is to their team. His 5.5 yards per carry is a shade below average and can be deemed as a red flag on his profile.

Unfortunately, he tested average to below average amongst running back prospects in all categories at the combine. His dismal 105.8 burst score and 11.72 agility score are major red flags in his athletic profile. There’s not much to write home about when it comes to his athleticism, but his 99.7 height adjusted speed score, which ranks in the 58th percentile, suggests that his 233-pound frame is tough to tackle in the open field once he reaches full speed.

Mock Draftable is another trusty resource and their famous spider-web charts provide a detailed illustration of how a prospect compares to their peers. Below is the spider-web chart for James Conner.

The first thing that jumps off the page from is spider-web chart is how poor his vertical jump is, with it being measured in the third percentile amongst running back prospects. His vertical jump indicates that his acceleration is limited while running the football. His 40-yard dash and broad jump are also horrendously low with both of them placing below the 25th percentile. Conner’s chart provides the inference that he’s not an elite level athlete.

His height and weight provides the notion that he has the size to handle a full workload at the NFL level. He measured in the 92nd percentile in weight, which means he has the size and frame to be a solid short yardage and goal line option.

Overall, what his chart tells us is that he’s a big powerful back with limited burst and speed. Most backs that weigh over 230-pounds are not speedsters and usually don’t have elite level burst, because they are being constricted by their weight. Conner’s athleticism is a red flag, but it doesn’t mean he’s not capable of becoming a fantasy asset in the near future.

Below is a highlight video showing cutups from Conner’s career. I like this video because it provides an accurate depiction of his vision, power, heart and his ability to finish runs. There’s a lot of highlights from his amazing sophomore season when he was at 100 percent full health, giving us an accurate example of what his potential could be.

http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byxgC3Hmlfk

Conner’s size, power and physicality makes him a man amongst boys, especially in the open field when he has gathered enough inertia to easily run through defenders. He does a really good job at dropping his pad level at the point of contact, which provides the proper leverages to drive back defenders to gain extra yardage and finish his runs. Conner can blow up any defender that’s in his way, whether it be a small defensive back or an oversized linebacker.

Vision, patience and the ability to anticipate the defenders next move are all weapons in his arsenal that are regularly displayed while running the football. He has a high football IQ and can read the defense to figure out where to go with the football. There’s no hesitation or doubt before hitting the hole, he sees the crease open, immediately make his move and hit the hole. He’s a very patient runner and will let the play develop before approaching the line of scrimmage, allowing him to make proper decisions and not run up the backside of his blockers.

For a 233-pound man, he’s very nimble on his feet and can move laterally to avoid tacklers. He likes to use a slide step in the middle of the hole or in the open field to slip past defensive backs and linebackers. Conner has a nifty spin-move that he likes to implement in the open field to get by defenders. His spin-move is very quick and balanced, making it very hard to anticipate and defend. From watching his tape, you will notice that he’s very agile for his size, which is a tremendous compliment to his power.

He caught 21 receptions for 302 yards and four touchdowns during his final year in college, displaying that he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He’s a very cerebral player when it comes to picking up the blitz and is always in the right place at the right time when it comes to blocking the incoming pass rusher. His size, power and assertiveness allows him to anchor down and pick up the blitz with ease, making him one of the top pass blocking backs in this draft class.

As his combine metrics suggest, he’s not a speedster and doesn’t have the burst to scoot by the defenders in the second level of the defense. Although the added speed would be a nice addition to his profile, it’s simply not a part of his game and how he plays. He’s a power back and he has enough speed to get the compete at the NFL level, even though his ability to break off long runs will be hampered.

Like most running backs, his value is going to be dependent to where he goes in the draft. There could easily be a spike in value if he lands in an optimal situation like the Raiders. Right now, it appears that he’s going to be selected anywhere from the mid-second to mid-third round of rookie drafts this summer. He has the talent be a low end RB1 in fantasy if goes to the right team and gets the opportunity to start but more than likely he’s going to a short yardage and goal line back in a committee to start his career. I like him and I feel he could become a tremendous value at his price point in rookie drafts. He has a lot of heart and is a player I wouldn’t want to bet against.

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bruce matson