Injury Distribution at the Quarterback Position
In week 16, Raiders fans were euphoric as they dominated the Colts through three-quarters. They were the hottest team in the NFL, and Oakland looked poised to contend for their first Lombardi Trophy since Rich Gannon. However, after Derek Carr was injured, we were reminded again how much our hopes rest on the health and play the quarterback position. This article is intended to outline the demographic distributions of injury at the quarterback position from 2012 through 2016.
Before I can analyze the impact an injury may have on a quarterback’s production, it is important to understand how injuries are occurring within the position. In Table 1, you will see the frequency of injuries that had reported throughout the season. It is important to note this table does not look to control for “unique events” of injury but rather works to show the “injury report-weeks” for each player that occurred in our five-year window. For those interested, injury report-weeks is a standard measure in epidemiology used to incorporate time. Though it might not demonstrate unique events of injury, it does give us insight as to how long a player has dealt with injuries. In future studies, this data will be used in a way to predict the rates of each injury type by player position, provide a player specific estimation on recovery time, and to determine which injuries are most detrimental to a player’s production.
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Table 1
Reported Injury Site |
Season |
|||||
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
Total |
|
Arm |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shoulder |
71 |
46 |
60 |
37 |
113 |
327 |
Elbow |
9 |
19 |
2 |
4 |
36 |
70 |
Forearm |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Hand |
1 |
11 |
16 |
8 |
14 |
50 |
Finger |
8 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
28 |
50 |
Thumb |
27 |
26 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
99 |
Unspecified |
11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
16 |
Back |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unspecified |
32 |
8 |
40 |
14 |
27 |
121 |
Chest & Abdomen |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Collarbone |
5 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
29 |
Ribs |
3 |
8 |
2 |
14 |
49 |
76 |
Unspecified Chest |
8 |
22 |
15 |
1 |
10 |
56 |
Internal Organ |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Head & Neck |
|
|||||
Concussion |
17 |
40 |
8 |
26 |
5 |
96 |
Jaw |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Nose |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Neck Unspecified |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
Head Unspecified |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
Lower Leg |
|
|||||
Ankle |
30 |
30 |
17 |
36 |
66 |
179 |
Calf |
2 |
2 |
0 |
8 |
9 |
21 |
Foot |
18 |
26 |
7 |
13 |
5 |
69 |
Toe |
0 |
4 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
Unspecified |
21 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
34 |
Upper Leg |
|
|||||
Knee |
68 |
35 |
15 |
62 |
14 |
194 |
Hip |
0 |
3 |
0 |
8 |
11 |
22 |
Hamstring |
7 |
11 |
4 |
17 |
0 |
39 |
Quad |
0 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
Groin |
0 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
10 |
Unspecified |
1 |
3 |
14 |
0 |
6 |
24 |
Other | ||||||
Illness |
3 |
12 |
18 |
8 |
12 |
53 |
Undisclosed Non-Injury |
7 |
24 |
17 |
9 |
0 |
57 |
Total injured player-weeks |
353 |
358 |
280 |
302 |
455 |
1748 |
Discussion
1. Change in Upper Body Injury
It might not surprise many of you that the most frequently reported injury for the quarterback position was to the shoulder. Based on the mechanics of how many quarterbacks drove to the ground and the overhead throwing motion, intuition might suggest the shoulder would be the likely ailment of the position.
However, the quarterback has seen a seasonal decline in either severity or occurrence of chest, rib, and collarbone injuries, all of which have a similar mechanism for injury. There are several possible reasons for this observation: 1) It could be purely due to chance. 2) An increased use or the improvement of equipment worn by quarterbacks. 3) A change in the mechanism that causes the injuries. A change in injury mechanism would likely link to a change in impact posture from a standing-prone target to a runner bracing for coming collisions.
It would be an interesting study to determine the differential injury rates between the mobile quarterback and the pocket passer. A positive finding might suggest that players are receiving less chest, rib, and collarbone injuries due to their play style.
2. Concussions
Looking at the 2015 numbers for player-weeks injured with a concussion, you might assume that there was an “epidemic” of concussions at the quarterback position. However, the NFL was working on the new Concussion Protocol and were likely guilty of what epidemiologists call “Surveillance Bias.”
Simply put, the changes made by the league caused players to be evaluated differently by officials. This change in vigilance led to the league finding more concussions, which likely missed in previous seasons. In addition to enhanced surveillance, it is also equally as plausible to suggest the high number of concussions in 2015 was variance driven, because of the drastic dip seen in 2016.
3. Players cited the most and least amount of Injury-weeks
Highest injured player-week contributors since 2012:
Lowest injured player week contributors since 2012:
Note: Reportable cutoff for inclusion was two seasons with five or more starts with the period.
As a person who values consistency, these two lists are very insightful to me as a dynasty owner. In the high-frequency table, you can see that there are numerous young assets at the top of the list. This table brings concern for the long-term health of the players whom we deem reliable starters for the coming decade. I must add, even the smallest of injuries that appear on the weekly report are not just bumps and bruises. The accumulation of smaller and or multiple injuries is what often causes many players to falter in their production.
Amongst the players with the lowest frequencies of injury report appearances, I find it interesting that many of these players fall within the “Late Round QB” targeting system. Players who are consistently able to avoid such injuries might suggest why they are a smart option for the early round “studs” (all of whom are within the most frequently cited on injury reports.) Please take note of the names in the lower list if you intend on to implement the late round quarterback drafting approach as these should be the individuals you might target in a dynasty start up. Most owners overlook these late-round picks’ injury avoidance, which I believe to be pivotal to a championship and an undervalued quality
Practicing with injuries
It is important to note that determining the severity of an injury might have gotten more difficult for the fantasy owner. After the change in injury reporting policy between the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the “probable” status enveloped into the criteria for “questionable” leaving us with less information. As it stands, the league intends teams to use the “questionable” status to show a player uncertain to play (60-75% chance.)
An amazing summary of how teams have adapted to this change in injury reporting conducted by Zachary Binney, a Ph.D. candidate at Emory who specializes in Sports Injury Epidemiology. His investigation estimated the new reporting system had increased the probability accuracy in determining if an athlete plays by nearly 5% when tagged with a “questionable” status. Additionally, his study works to show the overall tendency for questionable start-sit decisions made by each team. His findings come as great news seeing as any increase in our ability to project through injury status is always welcomed. (Please check out Zach’s work here.)
The following chart shows quarterbacks’ the practice tendencies based on their injury location. I do want to make note that this data has numerous missing variables. It appears that this information was either more difficult to collect or was not collected similarly through the five-year follow-up. In Table 2, the term “none” refers to the number of weeks a player was activated but did not attend practice. Those listed as ‘Out” designates the injured-weeks a player had been declared out before game day and before roster deactivation (Injured Reserve or Physically Unable to Perform List.)
Table 2
Reported Injury Site |
Practice Status |
||||
Full |
Limited |
None |
Out |
Total |
|
Arm |
|
|
|
|
|
Shoulder |
48 |
20 |
10 |
15 |
93 |
Elbow |
18 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
Forearm |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Hand |
20 |
10 |
3 |
3 |
36 |
Finger |
14 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
Thumb |
14 |
4 |
13 |
15 |
46 |
Unspecified |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Back |
|
|
|
|
|
Unspecified |
34 |
2 |
7 |
14 |
57 |
Chest & Abdomen |
|
|
|
|
|
Collarbone |
1 |
4 |
13 |
8 |
26 |
Ribs |
27 |
11 |
12 |
1 |
51 |
Internal Organ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Unspecified |
17 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
30 |
Head & Neck |
|
|
|
|
|
Concussion |
10 |
14 |
8 |
15 |
47 |
Jaw |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
Nose |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Neck Unspecified |
4 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
Head Unspecified |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
13 |
Lower Leg |
|
|
|
|
|
Ankle |
56 |
17 |
13 |
18 |
104 |
Calf |
11 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
15 |
Foot |
14 |
4 |
1 |
15 |
34 |
Toe |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
Unspecified |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
7 |
Upper Leg |
|
|
|
|
|
Knee |
31 |
11 |
4 |
32 |
78 |
Hip |
4 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
Hamstring |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Quad |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Groin |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
Unspecified |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
Illness |
9 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
14 |
Undisclosed Non-Injury |
9 |
3 |
3 |
116 |
131 |
Total injured player-weeks |
358 |
122 |
107 |
282 |
869 |
Despite my preconceived impression that quarterbacks were “pretty boys,” this table depicts the positions ability to play through the injury. Most important take away from the practice data is the consistency by which quarterbacks are declared out before game day when suffering a knee and thumb injuries. In future studies, I will be quantifying these relative proportions so we can directly compare their rate of injury to those of other positions.
Conclusions
As stated earlier, this article has less fantasy take away as many of you might have hoped. However, this data will be setting the stage for a future look into how these injuries impact fantasy production in the short and long-term. Additionally, this will work to identify injuries that put players at risk for chronic re-injury and compensatory injuries for each position.
Thanks for reading! Up next, I will be looking to display the injury distribution of the running back position.
Feel free to ask me questions via Twitter or Email.
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- The Top Five Durable Players by Position: Part Two - September 9, 2017
- The Top Five Durable Players by Position: Part One - September 6, 2017
- What are the Durability and Susceptibility Metrics? - July 16, 2017