Post-Combine Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
The combine is in the books and we are just getting our first tastes of NFL free agency. It is a very busy and very exciting time for the NFL and by extension us dynasty owners. In order to help you sort out at least some of this, I got together with 11 of DLF’s finest to put together a rookie mock draft for you. The goal isn’t to tell you ADP or the exact rankings of these rookies (after all, we have ADP and rankings lists for those things!), but rather give you an idea of what could happen if a rookie draft was held today. We also hope to give your rookie process a kickstart if you are just starting to get into the 2017 draft class.
For this mock, we did three rounds with twelve teams. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. Keep in mind it is very early in the process. There are going to be opinions shared in this mock which will completely change in the next few weeks and months. There will be players selected in the top 36 who go undrafted in most rookie drafts this summer, and there might be some future first rounders we didn’t draft. It happens when you are doing things like this early, but that is a part of the fun! Enjoy!
1.01 – Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State
Doug’s thoughts: Facing the choice at 1.01, for me it comes down to Cook and Leonard Fournette. As of right now, I have Cook slightly ahead. I am not worried about his metrics from the combine. If you are concerned about Cook’s metrics, you can let him go here, but he’s still a top four player in my mind.
My thoughts: This year is a little bit unique at this point in time because unlike the past few years, there isn’t a clear cut top one or even top two. In fact, at this point in time you could make quality arguments for at least four players to go at the 1.01 slot. For me, three of the four have already held the top spot at some point in time. That’s how close they are right now. Cook has the look over a complete back when you watch his game film, but the early draft process has raised some red flags. There are some concerns about his shoulder and other health issues, some off the field issues which are coming to light, and a much weaker combine than expected. While he is undoubtedly a top prospect, he is far from a lock at the top slot.
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1.02 – Leonard Fournette, RB LSU
Bill’s thoughts: I was happy to get Fournette he’s as close to a lock as you will find this draft. He will land as a work horse. He’s a complete back. I believe the Steven Jackson comparison is fair.
My thoughts: I’m going to disagree with Bill a little bit here, and that is perfectly okay. I don’t think Fournette is a complete back at all. While he is probably the best pure rusher in this draft, especially given his size, he is far from a complete running back. He doesn’t make many people miss in the open field, instead choosing to just run them over. In college, when he was bigger and stronger than everyone else, it worked well. In the NFL, it typically gets running backs hurt. He also tends to be full speed ahead at all points in time. There is very little if any subtlety to his game. Fournette is also a work in progress when it comes to the passing game, both catching and blocking. Don’t get me wrong, I like Fournette as a prospect, I just don’t view him as a complete and finished product like some. He is easily in the top three for me, I just think the hype on him has been a little out of hand at times.
1.03 – Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan
Joseph’s thoughts: For my money, Davis is the most talented wide receiver in this draft. His injury isn’t expected to affect his draft stock, and Davis should still be a first-round NFL Draft selection. He’s a terrific route runner that is devastating after the catch with the ball in his hands. He can win in both the big and small game, and possesses a much higher ceiling as a prospect than Mike Williams. Davis is capable of being the focal point of an NFL offense and doesn’t have glaring holes in his game.
My thoughts: Davis is currently the top of my chart. Maybe it is the Nick Whalen influence, and my mind could definitely change a few more times, but it is hard not to like Davis. I was disappointed that he couldn’t perform at the combine, because I really wanted a few more numbers on him, but he looks like a true difference maker at the next level. The best news is that he has some room to grow and has the competitive drive to do exactly that. I love when my receivers have high end physical abilities to go along with the desire to be the best. I have very high hopes for Davis, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a first round startup selection a few years from now.
1.04 – Mike Williams, WR Clemson
Matt’s thoughts: If I could take a mulligan on this pick I would, but he’s still considered by many as the top wide receiver prospect in this class. At 6’4″ 218 lbs he fits the physical mold of an NFL WR1 teams like Tennessee, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Baltimore with below average receiver groups. His 32.5″ vertical at the combine was disappointing but it’s clear on film he can go up and high-point passes in traffic.
My thoughts: I’m very curious who Matt would have taken if he was given his mulligan. As I mentioned earlier, cases can be made for any number of characters at the top of this draft; however, I also said that I’ve had three different players at the top of my chart. Williams is the other one. While a highlight reel for Williams definitely looks very impressive, I’m not as high on him as some others. He seems to struggle when trying to create separation, which is never a good thing. I view his upside as that of Kelvin Benjamin, another big receiver who struggles to separate.
1.05 – Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford
Mike’s thoughts: At 1.05 the simple call is for Christian McCaffrey. Many don’t think he has the body size for a full-time role, but when someone is dynamic as he is, you find a way as a coach to get him on the field. Fournette may be the most suited as for body size, but he struggles when it’s time to catch the ball and has below average blocking attributes. Unlike Cook, McCaffrey does not fumble and is a better blocker, not to say he doesn’t struggle as well. The Stanford star will duck his head and becomes inconsistent when squaring up, but this is teachable, and he is willing to learn. McCaffrey can sink his hips which allow him to maneuver through the field. He has excellent vision and ball protection. He will run inside where Cook struggles.
McCaffrey has the ball skills and the straight line speed (4.48 forty). We know how good he is with his maneuverability and with his excellent one-cut ability. Stanford had no problems continuously putting him at the goal line for that reason alone. After his combine, I would not be surprised to see McCaffrey being the first running back off the board.
My thoughts: I’m a big fan of McCaffrey. Other than being a bit on the slight side, he is everything you could ask for in a future NFL player. He has the bloodlines, physical ability, football intelligence, and a supreme work ethic. In the hands of a creative play caller, he is going to be extremely dangerous. I do have two concerns about McCaffrey. First, I worry he might be one of those players who is a better NFL player than a fantasy asset. My second concern is he did struggle from time to time when trying to run between the tackles. He isn’t going to break a ton of tackles when people hit him, but he’ll make a fair number of them miss. For me, which team drafts him could place him anywhere from fourth to tenth on my list. I would love to see him turn into an electric pro though.
1.06 – Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma
My thoughts: Mixon is without a doubt one of the most polarizing players of this draft class and will be a true wildcard for both the NFL draft and your fantasy draft. Unfortunately, it has very little to do with his on the field talent. Unless you have been hiding under a rock, you undoubtedly know that Mixon wasn’t invited to the combine by the NFL in a not so subtle attempt by the league to distance themselves from him. In fact, NFL.com doesn’t even list Mixon as a draft prospect! What he did was definitely terrible and crossed a lot of lines, but the reaction to all of this is a little bit strange. The strangest thing about all of this, is that the event in question happened almost three years ago and he was suspended from college football for a year as a result. He is far from the first player to have a checkered past like this (just ask Tyreek Hill), and he is likely a different person now than he was three years ago. I also don’t recall anything like this happening before to a draft prospect. Anyway, more on that in a different article.
Putting the off the field issues aside, when it comes to actual talent, Mixon just might be the most complete running back in this draft class. He has great size and his athleticism would have put him as one of the top performers at the combine had he been invited. If you watch him play the game, you see someone who is not only powerful but explosive. He averaged almost seven yards per carry during his time with the Sooners and nearly fourteen yards per reception. He was also an accomplished kick returner this past year. He is the complete package when it comes to a running back. The elephant in the room is how much does and should the off the field trouble come into play on this one.
1.07 – John Ross, WR Washington
Travis’s thoughts: Until we actually see where all of these prospects land pick seven seems to be the tipping point in rookie drafts. After Cook, Fournette, Corey, Mike, McCaffrey and Mixon came off the board it only made sense to go with the guy who ran a 4.22-second forty. John Ross isn’t a perfect prospect by any means. He basically had one solid season of production in college and struggled with injuries early on. However, you can’t teach NFL Combine record-breaking speed. Ross will most definitely be taken in the first round of the NFL Draft at this point. He is a safe pick in the seven slot.
My thoughts: I agree with Travis that without the landing spots, at this point all of the players seem fairly similar. There is one I would put above the rest by a slim margin, but it isn’t Ross. As for Ross, his speed is definitely going to get him an awful lot of attention. He can definitely fly as we saw at the combine. However, it was rather fitting that Ross pulled up with an injury just after his combine run. Ross has quite the injury record including a torn meniscus and microfracture surgery on the right knee to go with ACL and meniscus tears on the left knee. I think Ross will be an explosive player in the NFL, but I also have concerns that he could spend a lot of time in the trainer’s room. The good news for now is that the previous knee issues don’t seem like they impacted his speed at all.
1.08 – OJ Howard, TE Alabama
Scott’s thoughts: Normally I don’t like spending first round rookie picks on tight ends, but I decided to go with Howard for a few reasons. I like spending top draft capital on potentially elite options, and Howard is it. He’s an athletic marvel, was the best player at the Senior Bowl and is a natural fit in present-day NFL offenses. I also think this rookie draft falls off quite a bit after pick 1.05 and I’ll take Howard as the best player available.
My thoughts: Howard is likely to go in the first round, both in the NFL draft and in your rookie draft. Both he and David Njoku are head and shoulders above any of the tight ends in the last several years in terms of talent. Howard has great size with the frame to add another 10-15 pounds to help him with his blocking. He also has supreme athleticism with great hands. The only downside for me is that he never quite seemed to reach the levels of production that you would expect out of someone with his physical abilities. He would show up from time to time, but never seemed to sustain it for an extended period. The ceiling is huge for him though.
1.09 – Zay Jones, WR East Carolina
Mo’s thoughts: The 20-Yard Shuttle measures a receiver’s quickness in-and-out of breaks, (i.e., the ability to get open.) At the Combine, Zay Jones ran the 8th fastest 20-Yard Shuttle of the last five years. The list of players who bested Jones’ shuttle run is a “who’s who” of dynasty standouts. Zay’s best NFL comp may be the Saints’ Michael Thomas. Yet, Jones’ Combine numbers eclipsed Thomas’ in every category except for their Bench Presses, (18 reps for Thomas to 15 for Jones,) and hand measurements, (10.5” to 9”.)
Any doubt about whether Zay’s smallish hand size will translate into difficulty hauling in passes should be squashed by the fact – Jones is the All-time reception leader with 399 catches over his four-year career at ECU, including 158 grabs his senior year… I’ll run that last part by you again… The dude pulled down 158 CATCHES last season! Not targets, catches! He will be one of the steals of this draft class, even in the late first round.
My thoughts: In the interest of full disclosure, I was a little surprised when Mo selected Jones at this point in the mock. It made me go back and look at him once again. When I did, I started to see what Mo liked about him. He has NFL bloodlines, athletic ability and record breaking production in college. He is the NCAA record holder for both catches in a season and catches in a career. There are some concerns with Jones though, which is why I think he might be more commonly a second round selection in rookie drafts. His yards per reception are fairly low, which is a red flag. He is also a little slight of build, which can cause issues with more physical cornerbacks. The biggest concern for me is that he doesn’t play as fast as he tested at the combine. At times, he struggled to get separation from better corners. He is going to be a very interesting one to watch, because he could be a draft day steal for an NFL team or someone who just fades away.
1.10 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR USC
Adam’s thoughts: Any pick after number four in rookie drafts this year is going to be interesting. I was really happy to grab Smith-Schuster as the fifth receiver off the board. He had a better combine than I expected weighing in at 215 lbs while standing 6’1. His 40 time surprised even though it was only a 4.54, many expecting him to be much slower. I’d be happy selecting the 20 year old at this spot in a real draft as well. Someone recently profiled him beautifully in a 20/20 article here at DLF, so check that out.
My thoughts: Maybe I have a bit of a bias against USC receivers since they always seem to be big names who are drafted highly, but always seem to fail to live up to the hype. When I look at JuJu, I’m really not expecting anything different. He really struggles to create separation and seems to lack explosiveness. Those things aren’t going to improve in the NFL, which means all of his catches will likely be contested. The good news is that he can win a lot of those catches, but in the NFL his yards after the catch will likely be very limited. I don’t see a huge upside for him.
1.11 – Alvin Kamara, RB Tennessee
Jeff’s thoughts: You can make an argument that Kamara had the best combine of any of the skill position players. He’s got nearly perfect NFL size at 5’10” and 214 lbs., ran a respectable 4.56 40 while leaping out of the building in his vertical jump (39.5”) and his broad jump (131”). It’s a deep class at the position and while Kamara has yet to prove himself capable of handling a large workload (he’s never eclipsed 20 totes in a game), the lower mileage on his ‘tires’ combined with his dynamic as a runner could put him in line for major sleeper status in the right drafted situation. With a few reaches ahead of my selection at 1.11, my selection of Kamara is a straight value play.
My thoughts: Kamara is the player I was waiting to be drafted. I almost took him at the sixth spot in this mock. His combine was spectacular in almost every way, and he definitely flashed pro level talent while in college. He doesn’t come without his baggage though. He had some off the field issues early in his college career, which resulted in him leaving Alabama and going the Junior College route. He obviously worked his way back to the division one level, but he did ever truly carry the load for Tennessee. He also struggled a little bit with injuries during his college career. For me, his talent puts him several slots higher than where he was drafted here. If he lands on a quality team in the NFL draft, he could easily be in consideration in the first half of the round.
1.12 – David Njoku, TE Miami
James’s thoughts: As this pick was approaching, I got to thinking this is probably the best place to be in rookie drafts this year if you’re not in the top seven. I was chuffed to grab Njoku, would be happy if any of the previous players had fallen to me here, and wouldn’t appreciate falling just outside of this group. This tight end class is extremely strong, and don’t let the history of unproductive tight ends fool you – some of these players could contribute early. I outlined Njoku’s astonishing athleticism in a 20/20 profile last month, and think he’ll be a great addition to your dynasty teams anywhere from the late first in rookie drafts.
My thoughts: Njoku is the next in very long, proud line of Miami tight ends. I could probably end my comments there. He is very athletic but also a little bit raw in some ways, much like a lot of the other Miami tight ends. He is willing to be an inline blocker, but his technique and ability in that area are slightly lacking. I think he can definitely improve in those areas with a little bit of work though. Where he stands out is his pass catching and what he can do with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways he is a wide receiver in a 245 pound frame. If he was a little bigger and/or a better blocker, he could surpass Howard to be the top tight end in a very strong class. He’s a great pick in the last first round.
That’s it for round one. We will be back with the second and third rounds over the next few days! Which picks so far are surprising to you?
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
