IDP 20/20: Carl Lawson

Welcome to the IDP 20/20 series. Alongside our offensive Dynasty Scouts coverage, we will also be profiling and providing 20 facts you must know about 15 of the top incoming IDP rookies in the class.

1.) Name – Carl Lawson

2.) College – Auburn University

3.) Height/Weight – 6-foot-2, 261-pounds

4.) Birth Date – June 29, 1995, (21 years old)

5.) Class – Junior (Started 20 out of a possible 30 collegiate games for the Tigers.)

6.) College Stats – 67 tackles, 35 solos, 24.5 TFLs, 14.5 sacks, three forced fumbles.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

7.) NFL Draft Round Projection – Carl Lawson is most likely a day-two pick. The mock draft community is torn on his standing among this year’s edge rushers. In January, Dane Brugler had Lawson coming off the board at the end of the first. He’s since backed off that stance. Luke Easterling listed him as the 46th pick in his most recent seven-round mock for Draft Wire, while Charlie Campbell sees Lawson as the 16th best defensive end and feels he’ll have to wait until day-three to hear his name called.

8.) Current NFL comp – Frank Clark – Clark and Lawson look similar when rushing the quarterback. They each use power over speed to get their mark, with the occasional inside spin move thrown in for good measure. Clark is the bigger of the two, and played with more physicality. Their college sack production was less impressive than some of the higher ranked edge rushers in this draft.

Clark played some linebacker his first two years at U of M. Lawson was moved around the defensive front, lining up at both end spots, as well as the random alignment at middle linebacker, or even out in the slot. Most of those plays ended with Lawson rushing the passer however, as there is very little tape showing him in pass defense.

9.) Best possible destination – Buffalo Bills

Buffalo finished eighth in the league with 39 sacks. The problem for the Bills is that 23 of those sacks came from three players, two of whom have major question marks hanging over their heads entering 2017. Lorenzo Alexander led the team with 12.5 sacks. Jerry Hughes was second on the team with six sacks, while Kyle Williams came in third, with five.

The trouble starts with the Bills’ impending scheme change. Gone is Rex Ryan’s 3-4 front, replaced by Sean McDermott’s four-man alignment. This shouldn’t pose a problem for Hughes, who’s played DE in the 4-3 under Jim Schwartz pepper to Ryan’s tenure. Alexander is a versatile player, who should also have no problem contributing in the new scheme. Yet, Alexander is a free agent, who the team will have to decide if they want to make an investment in. As for Kyle Williams, he was unsure if he’d even return for the 2017 season. The Bills announced on March 1st that Williams will be back with the team this season. How long he chooses to remain beyond this year is a source uncertainty.

Lawson could work his way into a platoon role for the BIlls in year one. He may not be an immediate contributor as he acclimates himself to the NFL game. In time, he should find his comfort zone in McDermott’s aggressive scheme, which calls upon the defensive ends to execute a variety of exotic twist and zone drops.

10.) Worst possible destination – Indianapolis Colts

We do not want to see our IDPers land on teams with very little help up front (making them the focal point of the opposition’s blocking schemes). We also don’t want them being misused in roles that don’t fit their skill sets. We listed the Colts as the worst destination for Derek Barnett in his 20/20.  Unfortunately, we have to list them again for Carl Lawson.

It’s been mentioned above that although Lawson was sometimes found standing up on defense, there was next to no tape of him dropping in coverage and defending the pass. At 6-foot-3, and 253-pounds, he’s definitely undersized for a role as a defensive end in a three-man front, and hasn’t shown the requisite ability in coverage to feel confident about his prospects as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Obviously, there’s still the possibility of Lawson receiving work as a pass rush specialist for a team like Indy. Yet, we’re not searching for part-time players to fill our dynasty rosters. Lawson is best suited for a job on a 4-3 team who can put his skills to their highest and best possible use.

11.) Best current skill – Arm extension/ strength – This post is being written in anticipation of Lawson’s performance at the Combine. Unfortunately, it will not see the light of day until after the defensive ends test out on Sunday. Based on his game tape, Lawson should have a strong showing in the bench press. He does a good job of keeping his edge in tact. His strength rarely translates into sacks, however, as Lawson continuously gets to the passer just a click too late.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Rush Moves – It gets beaten into the ground yet, too many young pass rushers use a limited array of moves to attack offensive tackles. Lawson has a spin move, but uses it sparingly. We’d like to see greater variety, with more focus on hand usage and setting up the inside rush with his initial steps.

13.) Projected dynasty value –  Reading the mock draft community’s evaluations and the scouting reports available on Lawson, its apparent he is one of the most divisive players in this class. His collegiate production wasn’t eye-popping in either sacks or tackles for loss.

Lawson is a very solid player. He hasn’t shown he’s a dynamic player, however. Among his draft-mates, Myles Garrett and Taco Charlton each have freakish athleticism. Solomon Thomas and Jonathan Allen offer more size and scheme versatility. Derek Barnett, and even lesser hyped players like Demarcus Walker and Hunter Dimick have better production in terms of sacks and tackles for loss. At this moment, there is simply nothing to set Lawson apart from the field as an NFL prospect. His name recognition may buy him some attention from your league mates, but he’s likely to be a solid starter, not a breakout star.

14.) Injury history – Part of the reason Lawson’s production doesn’t stack up to his peers at the top of this draft class is the amount of time the Auburn star missed to injury. In 2014, Lawson suffered an ACL tear which cost him the entire season. His 2015 campaign was cut short by six games due to a hip flexor suffered in Auburn’s first game of the year. With a season and a half lost to recovery, Lawson may well have compiled better statistics. As it stands, his production looks rather paltry in comparison to his fellow SEC edge rushers at the top of the draft class.

15.) Close, but no cigar – The amount of times Carl Lawson exploded off the line and beat his blocker only to reach the QB milliseconds after the ball had been thrown is troubling. Other times, he makes head-scratching choices on how to attack the blockers in front of him, like this example where he tries to run around the smaller Joe Mixon, rather than running through him to get to the quarterback.

Pressure is never a bad thing, but there are no points awarded for hurries in IDP scoring. We need our defensive linemen to not only be disruptive, but to finish plays with sacks, tackles, and strips. If Lawson can refine certain elements of his game, he could blossom into the productive edge rusher he showed flashes of on Saturdays.

16.) Outshined by his linemate –  Auburn’s Montravius Adams is another 2017 NFL prospect who teamed with Lawson to give the Tigers’ front seven it’s teeth. In the clip above, you see the defensive tackle convert the “scoop & score” on Lawson’s strip sack of Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald.

Adams repeatedly jumps off the screen while watching the Tigers’ defense. His athleticism is impressive for a 309-pound man in a No.1 jersey. Production-wise, Montravius Adams’ 19.5 TFLs and 10.5 sacks weren’t far off Lawson’s output. Adams, however, played four seasons at Jordan–Hare Stadium, compared to Lawson’s three.

Perhaps the most impressive of Adams’ accomplishments are the three passes defended on his ledger as a DT. For his part, Lawson failed to record a single PD in his 30-career games. Montravius is viewed as one of the top-5 interior linemen in the draft and slated to come off the board on day two.

17.) Good discipline & awareness – Lawson doesn’t fall for the “okee-doke” too often. He has a sense of the offense’s intentions, and plays with good instincts and football intelligence. For a defensive end, these traits are crucial. Fundamental breakdowns and lapses in judgement will earn our IDPers a seat on the pine. Carl Lawson’s football IQ will endear him to coaches and earn him valuable playing time.

18.) Hype-train keeps rollin’ – The fanfare surrounding a top prospect’s arrival at a school in SEC-country maintains its momentum, even if the player doesn’t necessarily live up to expectations. Coming out of high school, Lawson was the No.1 ranked defensive end in the eyes of both, Rivals and 247 Sports. Rivals also listed Lawson as the Nation’s No.4 prospect overall, while Under Armour placed him at No.6 among all incoming freshman.

Three years later, it’s Derrick Barnett who has tied Reggie White’ SEC sack record, while Myles Garrett lays claim to the title of best player in the draft class. Lawson, meanwhile, needs his Combine and Pro Day workouts to be out of this world in order to solidify a pick on the second day of the draft at best.

It’s difficult to give credence to the pre-draft evaluations we read, as all it takes is one NFL GM to fall in love with a player to make the evals of guys like… well, me… look completely off base. Still, with so many interesting edge rushing prospects available this year, Carl Lawson missed an opportunity to ride his high school hype-train right through the Southeastern Conference, en route to a first round selection.

19.) 35 reps at 225-pounds in Indy – This could be the event which jump-starts Lawson’s rise back up the draft board. Saturday night at the Combine, the defensive end bested many of his top competitors with the strong showing we predicted in the bench press.

Lawson jacked up 35-reps at 225-pounds, surpassing Myle Garrett’s 31, Solomon Thomas’s 30, and a disappointing 21-reps by Alabama’s Jonathan Allen, a player many predict will be drafted in the top-5. As this article goes to the editors, Lawson is currently tied with Utah guard Isaac Asiata for the year’s top performance on the bench.

20.) The following is one of Carl Lawson’s better games of the 2017 season, a three tackle, two TFL, two sack day against the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch/USKD5kJ2rOs

[/am4show]