Welcome to 20/20. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine later this month, we’ll be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2017 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1. Name – Corey Davis
2. College – Western Michigan
3. Height/Weight – 6-foot-3, 213 pounds
4. Birth Date – 1/11/95 (22.1)
5. Class – Senior
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6. College Stats –
2016: 97 catches, 1500 yards (15.5 YPR), 19 TDs
2015: 89 catches, 1429 yards (16.1 YPR), 12 TDs
2014: 78 catches, 1408 yards (18.1 YPR), 15 TDs
2013: 67 catches, 941 yards (14.0 YPR), 6 TDs
7.) NFL Draft Round Projection – Round One.
Davis and fellow prospect Mike Williams are widely viewed as the top two receivers in the draft and most inside the league expect both to be selected within the first 20 picks. Davis could endure a slight fall on draft day because he won’t be running at the combine, but that’s unlikely – teams already know he won’t be running, and it shouldn’t affect his stock too adversely.
8.) Current NFL comp – Sammy Watkins.
Watkins and Davis win in similar ways. Like Watkins, Davis is able to win in both the big and small game. He is a gifted possession receiver in the short and intermediate parts of the field, but possesses the ability to stretch the field and win in contested situations. Davis can play “above the rim” and win jump balls in tight quarters and is a massive red zone weapon.
9.) Best possible destination – Tennessee Titans.
Marcus Mariota took a tremendous leap in his sophomore season, elevating the pass-catching talent around him before going down with a season-ending leg injury. Tennessee’s franchise signal-caller will be back to lead an ascending Titans squad in 2017, but would be greatly aided by a true number one receiver. Dynasty owners have long underrated Tennessee’s top wideout, Rishard Matthews – but there is little depth (or quality) behind him on the roster. Kendall Wright is primed to leave in free agency, and Mariota’s play would take another great step forward with a dynamic, all-purpose weapon like Davis.
10.) Worst possible destination – Houston Texans.
Plenty of NFL teams crave a playmaking, alpha wide receiver like Davis. The reason Houston is such a bad fit for Davis is because the Texans already have a premier wideout in DeAndre Hopkins. Beyond just his presence, Houston’s quarterback situation is currently unsettled and their offensive identity is more run-heavy.
11.) Best current skill – After-catch ability.
Davis is reminiscent of Demaryius Thomas after the catch. He understands how to evade contact at the second level with the ball in his hands and possesses a second gear when he turns the corner. To illustrate how proficient Davis is in the open field, Matt Harmon of NFL.com and The Fantasy Footballers tracked him in space as part of his signature “Reception Perception” series.
“Davis broke a single tackle on 51.6 percent of his “in space” attempts and multiple tackles on 22.6 percent. Both marks were in the top-three for this year’s receiver group and his bested the two-year prospect average of 40.4 percent and 10.2 percent.”
Davis broke a tackle on more than half of his attempts in space. Many of his detractors point to the inferior competition he faced on a weekly basis as the reason behind his success, but this element of his game absolutely translates to the next level.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Finding holes in zone coverage.
Davis doesn’t have many holes in his game, but there are certain elements he can certainly refine. Every so often, Davis relies on his athleticism rather than his technique to win against inferior competition – but in fairness to him, he does far less of this than one would expect. Despite being an excellent athlete, he’s more of a technician than many think.
Instead, the single biggest thing Davis can do to improve in my opinion is to improve against zone coverage. He runs nuanced routes and understands opposing defensive back play, but doesn’t sit down in open zones as much as he should. This is certainly teachable, and I have no doubts Davis will improve in this area.
Additionally, because he dealt with mediocre quarterback play, he often got open but became covered as the play developed and the quarterback evaded pressure and left the pocket. A quarterback like Aaron Rodgers excels when plays break down by keeping his eyes downfield for receivers breaking off their routes and improvising to find holes in coverage, but Davis doesn’t do this as much as he should.
13.) Past/Current Rookie ADP – As of February 23rd, Corey Davis is ranked as the second best fantasy asset in the 2017 rookie class by DLF’s rankers, and he’s rarely fallen below the 1.03 in rookie drafts. He is the rookie WR1.
14.) Projected dynasty value – As mentioned above, Davis’ value is typically viewed as the rookie 1.02 or 1.03 selection. Additionally, Davis has frequently been selected in the early-to-mid-third round of DLF’s February start-up mock drafts, giving dynasty owners a general idea of what his value is and will be. His February start-up ADP is 30th overall, falling directly behind Davante Adams and right in front of Demaryius Thomas and Donte Moncrief. His value could rise if he ends up in a favorable situation, but it’s unlikely to dip much even with an unfavorable landing spot.
15.) Skill set and versatility –
As mentioned in my comparison between him and Watkins, Davis can win at all levels of the field, in contested situations, and excels with the ball in his hands. In addition to his prowess after the catch, though, he excels in a number of different ways that will impact an NFL offense immediately. Although his technique can be inconsistent, he understands how to combine his quickness with a variety of technical moves to defeat press coverage. Davis can also play all over the field. He has lined up on both the right and left sides of a formation, on or off the line of scrimmage, and in the slot – and has shown the ability to succeed from everywhere. He’s a versatile receiver and one whose traits will translate well to the next level.
16.) Supreme statistical production – After completing what was a tremendous collegiate career, Davis finds himself in sole possession of the NCAA record for most career reception yards with 5,278. In addition, he’s second all-time in receiving touchdowns with 52 and fourth in receptions (331). His production amidst Daniel Braverman’s emergence was impressive, but not the most surprising aspect of his production.
Davis averaged over 100 yards and a touchdown per game for his entire collegiate career. Additionally, he commanded a 41 percent market share of receiving yards and 52 percent market share of receiving touchdowns over his four years as a Bronco – numbers that are unparalleled among his peers.
17.) Production outside his conference –
While Davis played in an inferior conference to most top prospects at the position, he did play in nine games versus the Big Ten – averaging 5.8 receptions, 78 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game – impressive statistics when you factor in the caliber of quarterback he played with.
Corey Davis for his career against the Power 5 pic.twitter.com/yMvebaKihI
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) February 20, 2017
18.) Work ethic – DLF’s own Nick Whalen is probably one of Davis’ biggest fans – if you don’t believe me, look at his Twitter AVI – but he illuminated one of the largest reasons for Davis’ improvement from year to year.
From his freshman season to his sophomore year, Davis stopped body catching as often and began using his hands more frequently, worked hard on improving his route running, and started using his athleticism more. The following year, he put on some size, became more explosive, and started setting defenders up in the open field. His senior season was a culmination of all of this refinement. Davis’ commitment to improving the weaknesses in his game shines through in his tape from every subsequent season. Many of the NFL’s best players have an impeccable work ethic, and Davis has set himself up to become successful at the next level.
19.) Injury – Davis suffered an ankle injury while training for the NFL Scouting Combine and isn’t expected to run there. He opted to undergo minor surgery, but should be fine for his pro day. Lower body injuries are always concerning, but his injury history is relatively clean and this is not expected to affect him long-term.
20.) Highlights – All in all, Davis is a tantalizing talent and an extremely exciting prospect.
Here’s his highlight tape:
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He tops my board…
I wish I wasn’t in the position of having to take an RB at 1.01, i think thus guy is going to be a special talent. Alot of great receivers came from small schools and excelled at the next level.
You can take Davis at 1.01. You could probably trade back to 1.02 or 1.03 and still get him though.
I’ve contended for months that Cook, Fournette, Davis, and Williams are all deserving of 1.01. Mixon as well, if not for the draft slide.
Having the 1.01 and 1.03 has worked out perfectly for me. I can taking Cook or Fournette first, and Davis or Williams third. I have Wentz as my QB, so the only thing that could prevent me from taking Davis is if Williams goes to the Eagles, and Davis goes somewhere like Houston. Of course if Davis goes to Tennessee, then it’s a whole other challenge making the right pick. Either way, it’ll be tough having to choose.
Great write-up. Thank you!!
Question: in #11, you wrote, ” To illustrate how proficient Thomas is in the open field…”. Did mean Davis instead of Thomas?
Thank you again!
Drool!!!!!!!
