Pre-Combine What If? Rookie Mock Draft Round One

Ryan McDowell

As a preview to the upcoming NFL Combine, Bleacher Report NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller has released an updated seven-round NFL mock draft. As in the past, this got me wondering what dynasty rookie drafts would be like if April’s draft actually played out just this way.

1.01 – Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State

Eagles (Round 1, Pick 14)

For most, it seems to be a two-horse race for the honor of being the top overall pick in rookie drafts. In Miller’s mock draft, Cook is the second running back off the board, but landing in an offense that wants to build around the running back could be huge. The Eagles are expected to move on from Ryan Mathews, so any rookie the Eagles add should be in line for plenty of touches.

1.02 – Leonard Fournette, RB LSU

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Jaguars (1.04)

While Fournette is the first offensive skill player off the board, I think he would routinely fall to the second overall pick in rookie drafts given this scenario. The Jaguars have plenty of holes, but it seems they realized last season that neither Chris Ivory or TJ Yeldon were going to be difference makers for them. A powerful back like Fournette could give some balance to that offense and help quarterback Blake Bortles and the passing offense in many ways.

1.03 – Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan

Cardinals (1.13)

With the two backs currently favored to be the top two picks, two talented wideouts typically hold down the next two spots. That would certainly be the case if Davis is selected by the Cardinals, who suddenly have a need at wide receiver. Michael Floyd is already gone, Larry Fitzgerald hinted at retirement and John Brown battled health issues all season long. Davis would have a chance to learn from Fitzgerald for a season before fully taking over as the team’s top receiver.

1.04 – Mike Williams, WR Clemson

Chargers (1.07)

Just as the running backs switched positions from the NFL draft to this rookie mock draft, the wide receivers do as well. Although Clemson’s Williams would be the first wideout off the board to the Chargers, Davis in Arizona would be slightly more appealing to dynasty owners. Williams would be left to battle Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and a pair of top tight ends for target share.

1.05 – Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma

Panthers (3.72)

Mixon will continue to be one of the most discussed prospects in the class due to his off-field history. The consensus seems to be that the talent is there, while the question remains about how the NFL will actually value him. In this exercise, not only does he fall as a day two NFL Draft pick, but he lands in a spot where he could start immediately, assuming Carolina parts ways with Jonathan Stewart, as many have predicted. Mixon’s dynasty value rests almost solely on how much draft capital an NFL team invests in him.juju

1.06 – Juju Smith-Schuster, WR USC

Bills (3.74)

The star of Smith-Schuster has been fading a bit as of late as many draftniks begin to poke holes in his game. Landing in Buffalo in the early third round would not be ideal for his dynasty stock, but the Bills are desperate for playmakers in the receiving corps and Juju could have a major role from the start.

1.07 – Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford

Jets (2.38)

The Jets have plenty of holes and many have suggested they simply tear everything down and start fresh. They have no answer at quarterback and are rumored to be cutting both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, so using a second rounder on a running back, even one as electrifying as McCaffrey may not be reasonable. Nonetheless, we’ll play along. McCaffrey would likely play a committee role as both Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are expected to be back in 2017, though he should be in line for a much larger role in the following season.

1.08 – Alvin Kamara, RB Tennessee

Colts (2.47)

This is the part of the draft that will really experience a shake up in the coming months. The Combine and the actual draft will tell us what we need to know and who our key targets should be. Kamara is a player that many have widely varying opinions on. I’ve often seen him projected as a first-round NFL Draft pick, while others view him as a role player in an NFL backfield. Landing in Indianapolis, who should be looking for a replacement for Frank Gore, will be a major boost to the value of any running back and it would solidify Kamara as a first-round dynasty rookie pick. I could even see him leap-frogging Smith-Schuster and McCaffrey in this scenario.

1.09 – David Njoku, TE Miami

Buccaneers (1.19)

You don’t typically see tight ends selected in the first dozen picks of rookie drafts, but there are a few factors that I see changing that this year. First, the recency bias of seeing the impressive play of Hunter Henry could lull dynasty owners into inflated expectations for rookie tight ends. Also, the overall quality of the class should have many dynasty owners chasing the position. Finally, NFL teams investing such high picks, as we see in this mock, would have an impact on how dynasty owners value the position. Njoku is one of the hottest names in dynasty circles right now and being inserted into the Buccaneers lineup with Jameis Winston and Mike Evans would only boost his stock even more.

1.10 – John Ross, WR Washington

49ers (2.34)

Ross is a player I am a bit down on, considering his injury history and the “one year wonder” factor. With that said, it is hard to ignore a player with Ross’ speed and if he is one of the first players off the board in the second round, that likely makes him a first-round dynasty pick. I would still have some reservation about the landing spot as the Niners have a slew of concerns and no quarterback in sight, but he’s a solid value late in this opening round.

1.11 – Curtis Samuel, WR Ohio State

Ravens (3.80)

While I am down on Ross, Samuel is becoming a player I am higher on than most. While the argument can and will be made for which position he should actually play in the league, I am dreaming of all the points put up by “tweeners” like Tyreek Hill and Ty Montgomery this past season. Samuel is probably more Montgomery than he is Hill, but I love the flexibility he offers to any team. The Ravens have needs at both running back and receiver, so there are multiple options for how they’d use Samuel.

1.12 – OJ Howard, TE Alabama

Titans (1.18)

Yep, another tight end in the first round! In Miller’s mock draft, Howard was actually the first tight end drafted ahead of Njoku. There seems to be a conversation about which tight end actually has the most dynasty value, but that will likely be answered on draft weekend. Howard would take some of the pressure off of veteran Delanie Walker, but we might have to wait a year or so before seeing him fully take over.

In the next edition, I’ll cover the second round based on Miller’s seven-round mock, including a few running backs landing in very intriguing locations.

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ryan mcdowell