This time of year is among my favorite parts of the football season. With the Super Bowl now in our rear-view mirror, we can look forward to the NFL Combine, free agency and the other events of the upcoming months. There truly is no off-season!
At DLF, we have wrapped up our Dynasty Capsules, an in-depth look at the offensive skill players for each team, including an analysis of players’ past performances along with some projections going forward. To accompany that series, I wanted to share some off-season storylines I’ll be watching play out for each NFL team. Many of these are similar as they have to do with new coaches, free agency and the NFL Draft, all major events of every off-season. Let’s get to it!
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Another team with a need at the quarterback spot is the Texans, who endured a free agent flop of Brock Osweiler. For now, Houston is expected to hang onto the former Bronco simply due to the massive contract they gave him last off-season. While Will Fuller and Lamar Miller flashed at times throughout the season, neither were consistent threats and DeAndre Hopkins became one of the most disappointing players in the league. With a strong defense and multiple offensive weapons, the Texans must find a solution at quarterback.
The Colts had another disappointing season and this time, it cost general manager Ryan Grigson his job. A below average defense and a weak offensive line meant Andrew Luck and the passing game never stood a chance. It was another strong year for Luck, as well as TY Hilton, but young receiver Donte Moncrief turned into a touchdown dependent fantasy option. The Colts need help at nearly every position outside of quarterback and this could finally be the off-season the Colts attempt to find a replacement for running back Frank Gore.
The Jags were the trendy pick to make the leap to contender status in 2016, but they completely fell flat, largely due to the poor play of quarterback Blake Bortles. Even in his breakout season of 2015, Bortles was not efficient and that boiled to the surface this year. Much like the Texans, the Jaguars seem stuck with their quarterback, in their case because he was a top three draft pick, but another year like 2016 would spell the end of his time as the Jacksonville starter. Of course, the play of Bortles turned ‘the Allens’ – Robinson and Hurns – into busts this season. We can only hope they can all regain their 2015 form, but there is little evidence to suggest that happens.
Almost everything went right for the Titans in 2016, at least until quarterback Marcus Mariota broke his leg late in the season, dashing any hopes of a playoff run. Tennessee promised an exotic smashmouth offense and they delivered as DeMarco Murray looked rejuvenated and rookie Derrick Henry showed promise in his backup role. The pass-catchers were a surprise, too. Rishard Matthews enjoyed a career year and Tajae Sharpe at least started the season well. With Kendall Wright likely gone via free agency (and not really contributing anyway) the team is expected to add a wide receiver, with either Corey Davis or Mike Williams each being routinely projected to land in Nashville with a top ten pick.
The Broncos performed well in 2016, considering they had lost their starting quarterback after Peyton Manning retired. Former undrafted free agent Trevor Siemian held his own but doesn’t look to be a difference maker. Rookie Paxton Lynch also had a couple of opportunities to start, but made no impact. While not in the same range as the Texans, the Broncos have their own quarterback issues and they’ve been a rumored landing spot for veteran Tony Romo. Running back Devontae Booker disappointed after he was handed the starting job following an injury to CJ Anderson, so his dynasty value took a major hit. New head coach Vance Joseph will have his chance to control the defense, while former Chargers head man Mike McCoy mans the offense.
The Chiefs have some major decisions to make on offense. Long-time starting running back Jamaal Charles is rumored to be a cap casualty and some have even suggested the team could dump starting quarterback Alex Smith. While that seems unlikely, I think we do see Charles leaving Kansas City and looking for a new home. He could be unhappy with his market considering how free agent backs have been treated in recent years. One player that will be tough to evaluate this off-season is Tyreek Hill. The rookie burst onto the scene last year, but some have chalked his production up to a series of fluky plays. Others are rightfully still concerned with his off-field issues. Hill’s dynasty value will vary widely from league to league and owner to owner.
The Raiders trajectory continued upwards in 2016, at least until quarterback Derek Carr suffered a season-ending injury. Expected to be fully healed by next season, Carr and his team should be ready to compete again. The main question for dynasty owners involves running back Latavius Murray, who will be a free agent. Murray had another solid season, but the Raiders chose to limit his role at times, getting big plays from rookies DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. They could let Murray walk and add a star back through free agency or the draft. If Murray is forced (or chooses) to move on, I worry he might have already witnesses his peak dynasty value.
The biggest transition facing the Chargers is of course their move north to Los Angeles. While the Chargers may have lost some fans, they should certainly have an exciting product when they take the field in 2017. This could be one of the most prolific offenses in the league, considering the wide receiver corps will include breakout star Tyrell Williams, along with a now (hopefully) healthy Keenan Allen and big play threat Travis Benjamin. Add in tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, and running backs Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead and this team is full of fantasy goodness.
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