What Would Bill Belichick Do?
What Bill Belichick is thinking right now.
Wow. What an amazing Super Bowl! It was definitely the most dramatic game I’ve had the pleasure of seeing across 20 years of watching this sport. Full disclosure: I’m a Pats fan. The first NFL game I ever watched was the Super Bowl between New England and Green Bay in 1997. A friend of mine who loved the sport finally convinced me to watch a game with him so I stayed up late to see what the fuss was about. I had no clue where Green bay or New England was, but my friend told me the Patriots were based in Boston. I’d been there so I picked them. He was a Dolphins fan so I’ve no idea why he didn’t persuade me to support the Packers. Either way, the decision was made and ever since then I’ve been a Pats fan.
Of course these days I’m a degenerate dynasty fan first and foremost so even though it was an amazing game, I’m now on to true off-season mode. You know who else is doing the same? Bill Belichick. He’s now solidified his place as the greatest coach in history, but he also knows that a competitive football team doesn’t build itself and he needs to know more than all the other coaches in the league. So I got to thinking: what can we dynasty fans learn from Bill?
Don’t let yourself get emotional.
“James White! Danny Amendola! I love you guys! You’re fired.”
Bill has showed time and time again that everyone is expendable and value comes above history. Players who had big roles but are ageing and not as good value as younger talent will be shown the door. Wes Welker, Darelle Revis, Adam Vinatieri, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest… If you’re not the best option, you’re gone.
What can we learn?
We’ve all got our favourite players who have scored well or we picked off the waiver wire or came up clutch in a title game. Don’t let that cloud your judgement, and move them on. The NFL is a young man’s game. Very, very few players stay productive as they age. This is not a game of personal relations. This is a game of maximising value and assets. Sometimes you’ve got to say goodbye so put on a happy face and starting adding in Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson, Ben Roethlisberger and JJ Watt as pieces in trade offers.
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Know your team better than anyone else knows them
“Of course we can afford to let Jamie Collins go. Elandon Roberts can play 25 snaps a game”
What can we learn?
One of the biggest errors we make as a group is thinking players will only and always improve. Zeke Elliott. Marcus Mariota. Kwon Alexander. Danielle Hunter. Joey Bosa. All these players are going to be astounding for the next five years right? Probably not. Some of them might, but realistically some players simply have their best years early. Don’t be afraid to move young players who have been super-efficient. It’s unlikely they can sustain that production.
Know exactly what you need – and go get it
“Sure he’s a long snapper and he’s in the army but I like him. Let’s make it happen.”
What can we learn?
Too often we think in fantasy football terms of players being “#Good” or “#Bad”, and we simply try to get more of the good ones. How many times have you ended up playing several players on the same team hoping that somehow they all do well? Diversification can be helpful in protection against disaster here. Sometimes it’s worth adding a deep threat receiver, pass-rushing linebacker or a specialist receiving back just to make sure you’ve got more options on your roster.
Know everything about the rookie class – not just about the rookies you’ll pick
“We’re never going to get to Barkevious Mingo in the draft. But he might be available some day…”
What can we learn?
Just because you don’t have a first round draft pick or you don’t need a tight end this year doesn’t mean you shouldn’t watch all the players and get to know their strengths and weaknesses. Often players can become available at a discount soon after they were drafted highly (Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Nelson Agholor and more). It pays to know them well so you don’t have to spend time in-season brushing up on players and you can move quicker when necessary.
Stockpile talent first – then mould it into a team
“We’ve got Dion Lewis, James White and DJ Foster. But Donald Brown is available too…”
What can we learn?
Adding good talent is always smart. Even if we can’t get any value for them later and have to cut them it’s better to protect ourselves against catastrophic failure of what we think are ‘safe’ pieces. In the off-season, get all the players you like in rather than average talent because you need someone in that starting spot. You don’t need a second kicker or a fifth safety on your roster. It’s much better to have an 11th running back who just might luck into a great situation.
You have to make your own choices
“I don’t care what armchair experts on Snapface say. I want another Rutgers DB in the second round..”
What can we learn?
Every year when scouting rookies there are players that the draft community likes or loathes where we feel the opposite. Often we tend to lessen our own opinions under the assumption that everyone else must be right. Don’t do that. No one knows anything. Even the NFL makes huge errors every year. Stand by your opinions and trust yourself. At least of you’re wrong you can adjust your approach. And if you’re right you just might win it all.
Summary
There’s a giant paradox with how we feel about Belichick. On one hand he’s almost universally hailed as the best coach in the league. On the other we keep thinking he’s making mistakes because he doesn’t subscribe to groupthink and accepted thinking. He clearly doesn’t know everything and makes plenty of mistakes.
But now is the time of year to decide who you want to be. A Belichick where people will ridicule you for being different – or a Jeff Fisher where you can ride your conservative decisions all the way to lifelong mediocrity. Inject a bit of Bill into your fantasy lives this off-season.
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