2016 College Market Share Report: Running Backs

Bruce Matson

Running back is one of the toughest positions to evaluate due to uncontrollable variables like scheme fit, player ambition and just being on the wrong team at the wrong time. There are a lot prospects who are highly athletic or carry a lot of brand recognition going into the draft process who fail to make it at the NFL level. Those players typically get overdrafted in rookie drafts, creating fewer opportunities for the owner who selected them.

College production typically, in some fashion, carries over to the next level – especially in terms of fantasy value. Players who were hyper-productive in college generally make the transition to the NFL rather seamlessly. Unproductive players in college tend to have a difficult path to success at the NFL level because they lack the experience of being a mega-producer in college. If a prospect wasn’t successful playing against a lower level of competition then how can they successfully make the jump to the NFL and be one of the top players at their position? How can they win at the next level? Those are questions we must ask ourselves when we encounter a player with limited production.

Many late rounders and UDFAs who were hyper-productive in college tend to make some sort of wave in the NFL and create fantasy value, whether by taking over a starting role like Thomas Rawls did or creating enough buzz during training camp that the player becomes a popular end of bench stash.

Market share is a good tool to determine a running back’s value within their offense by indicating whether a player was a focal point in their team’s offensive game plan. Workhorse running backs who typically own a 30 percent market share of their team’s offensive production or more have an easier time making the transition to the NFL because they are used to carrying the team on their back. Most players who own a large market share of their team’s offensive production usually are active in the passing game, which is a key trait for most fantasy relevant running backs.

In order to acquire a large enough sample size of data, I extrapolated the market share figures from the top-200 rushers from the 2016 season. I separated the running backs by class to showcase potential break out ages and how players stack up against their peers. The data should be used as a tool in conjunction with watching film and analyzing other types of player metrics. There will never be an end-all-be-all data set to pin point prospects, which means there will always be outliers that will break the mold that was forecasted.

Just for a gauge, it’s considered elite production if a running back achieves a 30 percent market share or higher, 20-29 percent is well above average, 15-20 percent is considered good and anything less than 15 percent is considered below average for a starting running back.

I posted the 2015 version of the report last year covering the top market share figures for college running backs. I found the report to be very helpful in prospect evaluation because it provides a quick snapshot on the player’s productivity.

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Donnel Pumphrey, RB San Diego State

He finished his senior season as the nation’s leading rusher with 2,133-rushing yards. Being consistent has been his most impressive attribute, rushing for over 1,000-yards during the last three seasons with 6,405 career yards on the ground, ranking him third all-time. Those types of statistics make it really hard for a player to not own a large market share of their team’s offensive production.

I’Tavious Mathers, RB Middle Tennessee State

He had a very impressive senior season, rushing for 1,561-yards and 17 touchdowns. One of his biggest attributes is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield as he caught 66 receptions for 633 yards and three touchdowns, making him one of the top receiving backs in the nation.

Taquan Mizzell, RB Virginia

Mizzell’s 31.74 percent market share is inflated due to his involvement in the passing game, catching 52 receptions for 404 yards for two touchdowns. He’s a tremendous receiver and should be beneficial in PPR leagues. 

Elijah McGuire, RB Louisiana Lafayette

McGuire is one of the most interesting backs in this draft class because he’s a very productive player from a non-power five school. He has eclipsed the 1,000-yard marking during his last three seasons and has 129 receptions during the entire course of his collegiate career.

Corey Clement, RB Wisconsin

Injuries derailed his junior season causing him to comeback for his senior year where he posted 1,375 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. He had eight games with over 100-yards rushing and he had his best game against Ohio State by rushing for 164-yards while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

Jamaal Williams, RB BYU

His stock is going to pick up steam as the draft process unfolds. Right now, he’s being over looked due to the abundance of talent coming out in this year’s draft class. With 1,375 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing during his senior season, Williams has the talent to make an impact at the NFL level.

Matt Dayes, RB North Carolina State

Dayes is an underrated back who will probably go in later rounds of the NFL Draft. He had eight games with over 100-yards rushing and was the main focal point the NC State’s offensive game plan.

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Aaron Jones, RB University of Texas El Paso

With four games with over 200-yards rushing, Jones is this year’s leader in market share percentage amongst running backs. Even though he routinely played against smaller school he still managed to put up 123 yards and a touchdown against Texas, the toughest school on the Miners’ schedule.

Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford

McCaffrey is one of the most decorated prospects in this draft class and it’s no surprise that he finished the season owning a 40.09 percent market share of Stanford’s offensive production because he’s a very talented player. He rushed for what it seems to be a quiet 1,603 yards and 13 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.3 yards per carry. A reduction in carries ultimately kept him from surpassing the 2,000-yard mark two years in a row. He’s a candidate to be a first round pick in rookie drafts this spring.

Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State

Cook is a candidate for the consensus 1.01 pick in rookie drafts and any other year he would be the bonafide top pick, but this class is different due to the immense talent that’s bursting through the seams in this draft, making it harder for dynasty owners to decipher the exact value a prospect should have. He’s one of the top running back prospects to come out for the draft in the last decade and his transition to the NFL should be rather seamless.

D’Onta Foreman, RB Texas

Foreman came out of nowhere this season to rush for 2,028-yards and 15 touchdowns while rushing for over 100-yards in every game he played in. His best game came during week ten against Texas Tech when he rushed for 341-yards and three touchdowns.

Jeremy McNichols, RB Boise St.

A fascinating prospect, who has the perfect blend of size and speed to become a three down back at the NFL level. McNichols is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and has the ability to make defenders miss in the open field. He caught 37 receptions for 474-yards and four touchdowns.

Akrum Wadley, RB Iowa

He’s returning to Iowa to play another year, which will give him another season to increase his stock. He rushed for 1,081-yards and caught 315-yards last season and those numbers should increase because he’s projected to get more touches next year due to the departure of senior running back LeShun Daniels Jr. Keep an eye on him next year.

Ralph Webb, RB Vanderbilt

Webb is returning for his senior season, which might be a smart choice due to the sheer volume of talented prospects that are coming out for this draft class. The only thing that could get in his way would be an injury, and let’s hope for his sake that doesn’t happen. This was his second straight season eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark and he finished the season ranked thirtieth in the nation with 1,283-yards rushing.

Curtis Samuel, RB Ohio State

If there was a major outlier amongst this group of running backs it would be Samuel, due to his role within Ohio State’s offense. Urban Meyer used Samuel in a similar fashion to how he incorporated Percy Harvin in his offensive scheme when he coached at Florida. What makes him an interesting prospect is his ability to eat up yards in the open field. He has the burst to blow by linebackers and defensive backs. His receiving ability separates him from most running back prospects, because he can separate from defenders downfield with his quickness and pure route running. Samuel is not just a back that catches a high volume of check downs or swing-passes out of the backfield, because he was actually utilized as a receiver for Ohio State. He led the team in receiving 865 yards and owned a 31.10 percent market share of the team’s passing offense.

Nick Chubb, RB Georgia

His 3,424 career rushing yardage ranks him second amongst Georgia’s all-time leading rushers behind Hershel Walker. Chubb suffered a horrific knee injury during his sophomore season, causing him to not play up to his potential during his junior season. Expect his level of play next year to slowly merge to how he was playing during his freshman and sophomore seasons before the knee injury.

James Conner, RB Pittsburgh

Conner, a 6’2’’ and 235-pound back, will be entering the draft this spring. He leaves Pitt rushing for over 3,733 yards ranking him second amongst Pitt’s all-time leading rushers behind the great Tony Dorsett. He was considered one of the top backs in the nation at the end of the 2014 season and a knee injury during the following year deflated his stock. Since then he has slowly rebuilt his draft status as one of the top running back prospects in college football.

Kalen Ballage, RB Arizona State

Ballage was only able to rush for just 536-yards this season but his 469-yards receiving elevated his ownership of the team’s offensive production to a 21.43 percent market share. He’s a very interesting prospect to watch on tape because of his size and his ability to make defenders miss tackles in the open field.

Sony Michel, RB Georgia

As the Robin to Nick Chubb’s Batman, Michel has quietly etched a very successful collegiate career, rushing for 2,411 yards and 17 touchdowns during his last three seasons. He rushed for over 100-yards rushing three times this season while averaging 5.5 yards per carry for the year. Michel will return for his senior season.

Leonard Fournette, RB LSU

Fournette played in seven games last season and rushed for over 100-yards in four of those games. He finished the season averaging 6.5 yards per carry. While playing in just 53.85 percent of LSU games, Fournette still managed to own a 19.48 percent market share of the team’s offensive production for the year.

Royce Freeman, RB Oregon

In the words of Biggie Smalls, Freeman is headed back to Oregon…to add to his legacy by completing his senior season. He rushed for 945-yards in 11-games last season while battling injuries. He currently ranks second all-time amongst Oregon running backs with 4,146-yards rushing. Freeman is a solid prospect and will be considered one of the top prospects in next year’s draft class.

Elijah Hood, RB North Carolina

Hood has been on the radar of many draft analysts ever since he rushed for 1,463-yards as a sophomore. He’s a big thick back who also has the agility to make defenders miss in the open field. It’s going to be very interesting to see where he lands in the NFL Draft.

Alvin Kamara, RB Tennessee

He finished his junior season rushing for 596-yards and nine touchdowns, while catching 40 receptions for 392-yards and four touchdowns. Kamara had two games with over 100-yards rushing with his best game coming against Texas A&M when he rushed for 127-yards and two touchdowns.

Wayne Gallman, RB Clemson

Gallman rushed for 1,133-yards and 17 touchdowns in 15 games last year, averaging just 75.33 yards per game. He had five games with over 100-yards rushing.

Samaje Perine, RB Oklahoma

He surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for his third straight season and he still managed to own a 16.17 percent market of the team’s offensive production even with missing some time due to injuries and sharing touches out of the backfield with Joe Mixon. Perine is a very talented running back and he might get over looked and slip a little bit in rookie drafts come spring.

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Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State

Barkley could be the 1.01 in next year’s rookie class as he’s one of the best running backs in the country. He finished his sophomore campaign with 1,898 total yards and 22 touchdowns.

Derrius Guice, RB LSU

Guice is another young phenom who is taking the NCAA by storm by rushing for 1,387-yards and 15 touchdowns during his sophomore season. His best game came against Texas A&M when he blew up for 285-yards and four touchdowns. Him and Barkley will be battling next season to see who will be the best back in college football.

Rodney Smith, RB Minnesota

With six games with over 100-yards rushing, Smith demonstrated that he has the ability to carry the team on his back when needed. He improved a lot compared to his freshman season by adding extra burst and being more decisive on his runs.

Rawleigh Williams, RB Arkansas

Williams finished his sophomore season ranked third in the SEC with 1,360-yards rushing while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. His best game came during week 12 against Mississippi when he rushed for 205-yards and four touchdowns.

Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma

Putting the off-field issues aside, Mixon is one of the most talented running backs in college football. He still managed to own a 25.12 percent market share of the team’s offensive production even though he had to share touches out of the backfield with Samaje Perine. His best game came against Texas Tech during week eight when he rushed for 263-yards and two touchdowns.

Mark Walton, RB Miami

He led Miami with 1,117 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He had six games with over 100-yards rushing and his best game came against Florida Atlantic when he rushed for 155-yards and four touchdowns.

LJ Scott, RB Michigan State

There’s a good chance that Scott blows up next season and challenges Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice as one of the top running backs in the nation next year. Injuries slowed him down this season but he bounced back during the last half of the season, rushing for over 100-yards in four of his last six games. His best game came against Ohio State when he rushed for 160-yards and one touchdown, while catching two receptions for 76-yards and touchdown.

Myles Gaskin, RB Washington

He’s the workhorse back for the Huskies as he rushed for over 1,300-yards in each of his last two seasons. He had six games with at least 100-yards rushing and his best game came against Oregon when he rushed for 197-yards and one touchdown.

Kamryn Pettaway, RB Auburn

He’s a big 240-pound back who managed to rush for 1,224-yards in nine games. Pettaway is a grinder who can take on a large amount of carries without fading.

Mike Weber, RB Ohio State

First off, Weber redshirted the 2015 season as a true freshman and ncaa.com has him listed as sophomore. He had big shoes to fill last season as he was slotted in as Ezekiel Elliott’s replacement. With four games with over 100-yards rushing, Weber didn’t disappoint, he demonstrated the ability to pick up the tough yards to keep the chains moving and was a tremendous asset to Ohio State’s offense.

Ronald Jones, RB USC

Jones is another prospect to keep an eye on because he broke out as a freshman last season and was able to improve upon his production during his sophomore year. His 6.1 yards per carry led him to rushing for 1,082-yards and 12 touchdowns.

Shannon Brooks, RB Minnesota

Injuries derailed parts of his season, causing him to lose touches to teammate Rodney Smith. He’s a solid back with a lot of potential and should increase his stat line next year.

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Devin Singletary, RB Florida Atlantic

Singletary finished his freshman season out strong, rushing for 874-yards during the final six games of the season. He demonstrated that he can handle a heavy workload while maintaining efficiency.

Trayveon Williams, RB Texas A&M

Williams had a successful freshman campaign rushing for 1,057-yards and eight touchdowns while surpassing the 100-yard mark three times. His best game came against Tennessee when he rushed for 217-yards and one touchdown.

Justice Hill, RB Oklahoma State

He led the team in rushing with 1,142-yards and six touchdowns while eclipsing the century mark in six of the 13-games he played in last season. Look for him to continue his progress during his sophomore season.

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bruce matson