The Gatecrashers – Wide Receivers
Part of what makes fantasy football great is identifying breakout performers. In a dynasty setting the reward is enhanced significantly by the luxury of then being able to hold onto said player for the duration of his career. If you can nab the next Antonio Brown for the cost of a few waiver wire bucks or a late draft pick, you’ve just performed a resounding roster upgrade simply by being vigilant while other owners were still waiting for more data points.
However, there exists a flip side of that coin. Many of these breakouts will wind up as one-hit wonders (Steve Slaton says hi), leaving you with nothing more than some temporary production and a bitter taste in your mouth when you were counting on them as core components of your team moving forward. Knowing when to cash out on a player who gained a significant amount of value is every bit as important as identifying him in the first place.
As always, 2016 was no different in providing us with several of these “gatecrashers.” After combing through the PPR Top-50 lists, I’ve created lists of players who, to varying degrees, came out of nowhere to crash the fantasy party. From here, it’s time to determine how they should be valued moving forward.
Let’s get started with the wide receivers!
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Michael Thomas, WR NO (PPR WR7, ADP = 16.3)
While Thomas didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, even the rosiest of projections didn’t see him finishing as a mid-range PPR WR1 on the season. And yet all he did was lead the Saints in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and first downs. He was just 36 yards shy of teammate Brandin Cooks for the yardage lead, but actually produced more receptions of 20+ yards than his big-play counterpart. With 11 games of 5+ receptions and 12 games of 50+ yards, Thomas also didn’t provide the disappearing acts Cooks has been prone to. Between Thomas, Cooks and Willie Snead there will always be some weekly cannibalization, but Thomas has proven that the cream will rise to the top. He’s the best receiver on the team already, and a tremendous dynasty asset.
Verdict: Hold.
Davante Adams, WR GB (PPR WR10, ADP = 31.7)
If you bought low on Adams following a poor sophomore effort, there’s a good chance you finished 2016 in the black. But unlike with Thomas, there remain some significant warning signs. Adams’ PPR WR1 value was largely propped up by touchdowns, of which he scored 12. This was able to erase some poor weekly yardage and reception performances, of which there were more than I’d care to see. To that point, Adams was held under five receptions ten times, and under 50 yards nine times (in a tenth, he hit 50 on the nose). In fact, he was the only PPR top-18 receiver to finish with under 1,000 yards (in fairness to Adams, there were some players who barely eclipsed that total). He also corralled “only” 62% of his targets, which sounds good until you remember that quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed nearly 66% of his passes. But scoring in nine different games tends to make owners forget all that. It certainly wasn’t all smoke and mirrors and Adams did seem like he turned a corner, but if someone is paying a premium I think I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
Verdict: Sell if he’s being valued as he was after his rookie year.
Tyrell Williams (PPR WR18, ADP = 49.2) and Dontrelle Inman (PPR WR47, ADP = 202.7), WRs SD
I’ve lumped the Chargers receivers together for obvious reasons. To start, let’s consider the table below.
Williams gets marks for overall production and a slightly higher efficiency, to go along with having age on his side. But as can be seen in the table above, despite the disparity in their PPR rankings, the numbers weren’t insanely different. To that point, Williams’ 216.9 PPR points were closer to Inman’s 163.0 than they were to the output of the WR5, TY Hilton. This isn’t to say he didn’t have a good year, because he did – but it more speaks to the “dime a dozen” mentality one can take with the PPR WR2 – WR4 range. With Keenan Allen ostensibly returning healthy, Danny Woodhead possibly coming back (he’s a free agent), and Hunter Henry making big strides as a rookie, there simply won’t be enough footballs to go around for all of these guys. As such, I’m looking at one thing – what do they cost? The ADPs tell me all I need to know for how to approach this pair.
Verdict: Sell Williams at current cost and buy/hold Inman as a the more cost-efficient hedge on the team’s overall health.
Terrelle Pryor, WR CLE (PPR WR21, ADP = 50.3)
I’ve discussed Pryor recently with his inclusion amongst my Dynasty All-Hype Team, so it’s fairly obvious to discern where I stand here. He had a great year, but he’s older than most realize and he likely won’t have the same target share in 2017. His upside isn’t entirely baked into his price, but there’s little margin for error.
Verdict: Sell for a first round pick, hold for a second round pick.
Tyreek Hill, WR KC (PPR WR23, ADP = 62.8)
I’ll be honest and say I’m not entirely sure what to do with the Chiefs rookie. Though he seems more polished than a player like Cordarrelle Patterson, it’s alarming to his rushing efficiency (11.1 YPC) outpaced his receiving ability (9.7 YPR). With that said, it’s pretty tough to argue against 860 total rushing/receiving yards (and nine touchdowns), and 976 return yards (and three more scores). He simply has “football ability” and can outrun nearly everyone in the league, and could very well wind up what we hoped guys like Percy Harvin and Tavon Austin would be. As long as you’re willing to ignore the fact that he’s a scummy human being (and the NFL seems to have done just that), I think he makes for a smart hold.
Verdict: Hold, because even if he tails off it will only take one or two flashy plays for his value to climb back up.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN (PPR WR29, ADP = 117.5)
If you asked Joe Everyman who the Vikings leading pass catcher was on the season, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Thielen’s name didn’t come up. But incredibly, despite having 19 fewer targets than Stefon Diggs and 40 fewer targets than Kyle Rudolph, Thielen paced the team with receiving yards, while establishing an obscene 10.5 YPT. Given his low ADP, this is quite simply a player who it doesn’t make sense to sell, since you’re likely looking at a third round pick at best. Laquon Treadwell may still become a thing, but it’s not written in stone. At worst, I expect another year of strong numbers for Thielen.
Verdict: Hold, because I doubt anyone will offer you all that much.
Jamison Crowder, WR WAS (PPR WR30, ADP = 48.5)
It’s always interesting to me to encounter disparate value fluctuations. To wit, while Thielen is three years older than Crowder, the former saw a minimal ADP bump while the latter now resides just outside of the fourth round. But much like with Adams above, there are definitive warning signs here. Over his last five games, Crowder could only collect 12 receptions for 122 yards and one touchdown, meaning just under 85% of his yearly production came in his first 11 games. He also collected seven touchdowns on just 97 targets (7.2%), which easily eclipsed the overall team rate of 4.1%. Crowder is clearly a good player, but all told he wound up third on his team in receiving and was propped up by crossing the goal line. His value moving forward is going to depend on what happens with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, and also if Josh Doctson lives up to his draft status.
Verdict: Sell if people are paying as if Garcon and D-Jax are gone.
Sterling Shepard, WR NYG (PPR WR36, ADP = 39.0)
As a rookie, Shepard posted a 65-683-8 line. He played well, and was a former first round pick in dynasty drafts, so we know his value will remain.
Verdict: No reason to sell.
Cameron Meredith, WR CHI (PPR WR39, ADP = 88.8)
It’s somewhat surprising to me that Meredith is 40 spots behind Crowder according to the ADP. With the exception of touchdowns, their stats were virtually similar, with Crowder collecting 67 receptions on 99 targets for 847 yards, and Meredith nabbing 66 receptions on 97 targets for 888 yards. Meredith also did this while collecting passes from the triumvirate of Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley. In fact, on the year, Meredith even outperformed teammate Alshon Jeffery, besting him in receptions, yards and touchdowns despite only one additional target. Possessing a great size/speed blend and with a clear-ish path to target control (Jeffery is likely gone and Kevin White has done nothing in the NFL), Meredith is an incredibly strong buy/hold at the current cost.
Verdict: Buy/hold. If his name was Jeff Janis he’d be a top-30 pick.
Quincy Enunwa, WR NYJ (PPR WR44, ADP = 116.0)
Basically we have a cheaper Meredith who just took a little longer to get going. Still only 24 (25 in May), however, it’s not as if Enunwa doesn’t have time on his side. The receiving waters in New York will be muddied by the return of Eric Decker, but recent news is suggestive of a divorce between the team and former (and perhaps still future?) superstar Brandon Marshall. If the Jets can get any sort of production under center, Enunwa could continue as a nice weekly fill-in with upside for more.
Verdict: I’m actually surprised how low his ADP is, so there’s absolutely no reason to sell.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: How Much Should You Factor in Off-Field Issues? - April 9, 2024
