Dynasty Capsule: Indianapolis Colts
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the regular season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Quarterback
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Andrew Luck had a nice bounce back from his injured riddled 2015 season. Luck passed for 4,240 yards and 31 touchdowns with just 13 interceptions. His yards and touchdowns placed him in the top ten in both categories. He also finished ninth in passer rating (96.4) while completing 63.5 percent of his passes. He also finished seventh in rushing yards by a quarterback with 341. Those are great numbers for someone sacked 41 times (which doesn’t include pressures or touches).
In the month of September, Luck passed for 913 yards while throwing six touchdowns with just two interceptions in three games. The Colts would lose two of them, but it had nothing to do with the performance of Luck. The Colts played five games in October and lost three, but Luck was even better than he was in September. His yards were higher (1371), but he had better ratio numbers when it came to touchdown and interceptions (10:3) and had a better passer rating (98.1). Also, on average he was sacked more, bumping up that rate by more than one per game.
In November the Colts had their bye week, and Luck missed a game due to a concussion. He would go on to have the two of his worst weeks of the season. He threw just three touchdowns to go along with three interceptions, passing for 543 yards with a completion rate of 59.4 percent. All categories were low points on the season for the star quarterback.
When December rolled around, he was back on track. He didn’t perform as well as he did in the first eight games, but he was close. He tossed ten touchdowns with just four interceptions and completed a season-high 66.2 percent of his passes. He threw for 1092 yards and sacked twice. It’s amazing what he can do when not on his butt. Luck would play the last game in January, throwing for two touchdowns with one interception, completing 60 percent of his passes. Unfortunately, he was sacked four times.
He is still the best dynasty option at the quarterback position. In the DLF ADP, he is going around 44.25 and number one off the board at the position. He is 27 years old and could be older with all the dings, bumps, and injuries. To me, he clearly is a whole tier to himself, and a cushion away from my number two Derek Carr.
Scott Tolzien played in Green Bay for three seasons before moving on to Indianapolis. He is a typical backup quarterback that has enough talent to make a few starts when the starting quarterback needs to recover from an injury. With the Packers, he played in three games was good on 61.1 percent of his throws (55-for-90), but tossed five interceptions and only one touchdown.
With Indianapolis, he started one game and was accurate at 62.2 percent (23-for-37) with one touchdown and one interception. As you can see just from his numbers, he has solid accuracy regardless if it’s to his teammates or the opponents. In his career, he has 937 yards with two scores and six picks. He is nothing more than waiver wire opportunity in all league formats.
Tolzien is intriguing in that he has a great offense around him and he played well against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, he also had a great offense in Green Bay, and he turned over the ball six times.
Running Back
If there ever was an ageless player, it would be Frank Gore. The Colts running back is 33 years of age but has come off a 1,000-yard rushing campaign. He rushed for 1,025 yards and four touchdowns, becoming the first Colts running back since Joseph Addai in 2007 to rush for 1,000 yards. Gore also joined Pro Football Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith (11), Curtis Martin (10), Walter Payton (10) and Barry Sanders (10) as the only players in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in nine different seasons.
Gore became the first running back at the age of 33 or older to rush for 1,000 yards since John Riggins in 1984 and just the fourth player overall. All these are great for a potential Hall of Fame candidate. However, the age alone signifies the ending road for Frank “The Tank” Gore. He is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry, and Robert Turbin was the guy at the goal line. The interesting thing is that Gore had better numbers than last season in yards, total touchdowns and receptions. He even fumbled less and had more carries.
At this time, he is chosen at the 169.25 spot and is currently the 50th running back selected. He is in year three of his three-year deal, and it would be hard to imagine him playing more than two more seasons. But, if you are slinging darts at a dart board, he hasn’t shown much wear in his last two seasons as a Colt and could be a solid contributor to your fantasy team.
Turbin came to the Colts as a free agent from the Dallas Cowboys. He is very much in the mold of Frank Gore, running hard and always finding a way to get the job done. Turbin was exceptional in his role as a backup running back as he crossed the goal line eight times. He also added to the passing game by catching balls out of the backfield and was a skillful blocker. He is in his contract season, but I am hoping the Colts re-sign him to a longer deal. They need someone for short yardage, and he is their guy. He won’t do much for you unless you’re only in a touchdown league, but if Gore goes down, he will be a bell-cow.
I had high hopes for the UDFA rookie in PPR leagues this season. I thought he would be a nice third down back the Colts could rely on out of the backfield. However his blocking was shaky, and he just couldn’t get the job done which opened the door for Turbin. Also, he missed six games this season due to injury. He finished the season with 20 yards on 15 carries and caught 20 passes for 136 more yards. He was simply not good, and any time he had the ball in his hands he struggled. At this time he is nothing more than waiver wire fodder for dynasty leagues. As for ADP, DLF has him as the 74th running back off the board and 227.67 pick selected.
It’s difficult to say where Todman will play next season. He filled in admirably in the return game when Quan Bray went down with a season-ending injury. However, he is a free agent, and even though the Colts will probably like to re-sign him, Bray is their main guy. Plus, he isn’t much worth to you in Indianapolis. His role is on special teams. He has made a nice career out of being a sixth-round draft selection, but the most carries he has had is 76 when he was a Jacksonville Jaguar.
Wide Receiver
Welcome back T.Y. Hilton. In 2015, he caught just 69 passes for 1124 yards and five touchdowns. He was much better this season as he set a new single-season career high in receptions (91) and receiving yards (1,448). He became the first Colts player to lead the NFL in receiving yards since Reggie Wayne in 2007. Hilton also added six receiving touchdowns while earning his third consecutive (2014-16) Pro Bowl nod.
After his first two games it didn’t seem like he was going to do much at all. Against Detroit and Denver, he could only accumulate ten receptions for 120 yards and zero touchdowns. Hilton did turn that around in week three against the San Diego Chargers (8-174-1). In October he continued to dominate, in the five games he finished with 28-415-3. He showed consistency as he scored in three games and had seven or more receptions in three contests. However, he put up two games where he stunk up the joint, catching a total of four passes for 69 yards and zero scores against Houston and Kansas City.
He was average in the three games in November (14-223-1). He didn’t go over 100 yards and didn’t have more than six receptions in a single contest. However, he did catch fire in December. The first two games saw him catch nine passes for 261 yards and a touchdown (New York Jets and Houston Texans).
In the last two games of the month, he fell flat again. Playing both the Oakland Raiders and Minnesota Vikings he could only garner a stat line of 7-150-0. He did go over 100 yards against the Raiders, but we know their defensive capabilities are not good. Oakland finished 24th in yards allowed in the air in 2016. Hilton’s season finale saw him play well against a tough Jaguars defense. He would finish the season with 6-95-0 line and a Colts victory.
Hilton’s ADP remains as one of the better receivers selected. He is the ninth receiver off the board and the 14th pick selected.
Donte Moncrief had a solid season minus the broken collar bone. He won’t overwhelm you in receptions and yards, but there is a certain guarantee that the Colts love to use him around the goal line. In the first two games of the season, he only caught seven passes for 73 yards and a touchdown. The scores didn’t stop there either. In the next five games, he would catch scores from Luck and one from Tolzien.
He played in just nine games in 2016, establishing himself best with Tolzien at quarterback. He had his second highest output against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-45-1). He did not catch more than six passes (twice) and did not go over the 100-yard mark. It is hard to figure if Moncrief is more than an awesome red zone attraction. He certainly has the capabilities, but it appears Luck uses his tight ends for short to intermediate routes more so than Moncrief. He finished the season with 30-307-7.
Moncrief is a number two receiver for dynasty leagues. He is the 18th wide receiver selected and the 26th player overall.
Much was to be said about the speedster coming into his second season as a pro. Many believed he was a wasted pick considering the Colts already had a stacked crew at wide receiver, and they needed an offensive lineman or help on defense. It didn’t help that Dorsett would miss close to two months in 2015 either. In 2016, he played well in the limited action he saw. In week one he grabbed four balls for 94 yards. In the next two games, he could only match that total with a line of 4-57-0. In October, it appeared to be the same song and dance for the first three weeks as he caught just five passes for 102 yards and a score. He did boost his production in the last week catching five passes for 33 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Through November, December and the one game in January there was very little production. He collected 15 receptions for 232 yards and one score. As you can tell by his average per catch, he is the deep threat of the Colts, and next season will be number three. So, if you hold stock in a receiver’s third season, he should do well for you. In my opinion, he will continue to be a player used wisely in best ball leagues.
You will have to go mighty deep to reach for Dorsett. At this point, he is close to the 154th player selected and the 77th receiver off the board.
Chester Rogers
I see a lot of potential with Rogers (6-1, 180 pounds). He was a UDFA from Grambling where he began as a walk-on for them. Then the Colts signed him, and he made headway through the off-season and landed a role at the wide receiver position. Interestingly, he is a former child actor that has played in some known movies. You can catch his IMDB here. His acting name is Tre Rogers.
During the season, he caught 19 passes for 273 yards but did not have a touchdown. Rogers is a solid route runner with good hands, and he has always produced. He will continue to get a chance to prove himself as there isn’t a number four receiver. He also has a lot of speed as he ran a 4.49 40 yard dash. He is a young too, only 23 years of age.
Keep track on what the Colts do in the off-season. As long as Rogers continues to hold down his position at the four receiver spot, he has a good chance to develop.
Even though Rogers has not officially made the ADP list yet, stay tuned as he may next season.
The second-year pro broke his ankle and missed the last ten weeks of the season. Just like Rogers he too was a UDFA last season from Auburn. His job is in the special team’s department. He is just too small (5’10 and 186 pounds) to hold down a full-time role. I was hoping to see more of Bray at the fourth wide receiver position, but Rogers took care of that. He at times was involved in the offense, but not enough to be considered anything of importance. You should continue to leave him on the waiver wire.
The Colts signed Devin Street off the New England Patriots practice squad when Donte Moncrief went down with his injury. He is a third-year pro out of Pittsburgh. He has good size 6’3 and weighs 200 pounds. Shows natural receiving skills to track, concentrate and adjust. He has dependable hands, but his body size is his weakness and he just doesn’t have enough bulk to absorb a lot of contact. Street also struggles to block as he is not aggressive or physical enough at the point of attack. He needs to be more consistent in his route running. Street does have solid field awareness, can line up outside and inside, and uses his frame to shield off defenders.
It’s difficult to see Street more than a special teams contributor or a fifth receiver. The Colts will have him signed through this season, so maybe he will find a sliver to get through and become a solid contributor. I doubt it.
Tight End
Jack Doyle was a nice surprise, but someone I think the Colts knew what they had. He is a good reason why Indianapolis let Coby Fleener sign elsewhere. They made a good decision as Fleener never really caught on in New Orleans. Doyle finished the season as the team’s second-leading receiver and is someone Indianapolis will want to re-sign as it is his free agent season. Doyle has not missed a game in his four seasons, three being limited action. He easily could take over the number one role, but Indianapolis like to use him as an extra blocker when the situation calls for it.
He started the season strong when he caught three passes for 35 yards and two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions. He would finish the next two games with ten catches for 102 yards. The first two games in October were not anything special. Three catches for 14 yards, but he turned it around when he faced the Houston Texans (4-53-1). He followed that up against the Tennesse Titans (9-78-1) but disappeared against the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense (2-36-0).
In November, He played well against the Packers (5-61-0), but fell flat against both the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers, as he only caught three passes for 32 yards and no touchdowns combined. Doyle’s best month was in December. He caught a total of 18 passes for 163 yards and zero touchdowns. In those four games, he didn’t catch less than four balls, and 30 yards was his lowest production for those games. He did score in January, his first trip to the end zone since his October game against the Titans.
Doyle finished the season with 59 catches for 584 yards and five touchdowns. Look for him to be a TE2/3 in most dynasty formats. He is still getting selected after Allen, but that is more according to depth chart than production. The DLF ADP has him as the 29th tight end and number 224.33 overall.
Allen was not as productive as many thought he would be with the missing Fleener. He didn’t play all that horrible, but it was his consistency that turned many fantasy owners away. He started strong against the Lions with four receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown but faltered in the next two games (5-60-0) in the month of September.
In October, Allen was not much better. His game against the Chicago Bears was his best of the month. He caught six passes for 50 yards and a touchdown. However, against both Jacksonville and Houston he was awful (3-29-0). He missed the Chiefs game due to injury.
His return came against the Packers, and again he faltered. Allen caught one pass for 15 yards. He did nothing against Tennessee (0-0-0), but when facing the Steelers, he started a nice two-game streak. He had a 5-49-0 line in Pittsburgh and then manhandled the New York Jets (4-72-3). He then fell flat the next three games. He could only manage four catches for 44 yards against Houston, Minnesota, and Oakland. He didn’t catch a pass against the Texans, and caught only one against the Vikings. His touchdown in against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last game of the season redeemed him a little bit from a total collapse (3-31-1).
The starting tight end finished his season with 35 receptions for 406 yards and six touchdowns. The Colts have him locked up for the next three seasons at a price tag of $29.4 million, they are going to give him every bit of come back from the 2016 season. His DLF ADP may change by the end of next season as he very well could switch places with Doyle. At this point, he is the 20th tight end taken and 191 overall.
I dig on Erik Swoope (6’5, and 257 pounds). Not only is he a pro football player who has never played the game until now, but he has been a tough competitor since joining the Colts three years ago as a UDFA/converted basketball player from Miami. He completed the season with 15 catches for 297 yards (19.8 YPC) and a touchdown. Going on 25, Swoope is getting less projectable but is starting to look like a legit playmaker. He could play a nice role for the Colts if Allen continues to be ineffective or gets hurt, but the Colts will have to re-sign the Exclusive Rights Free Agent first.
It was good to see that DLF has room for this up and coming tight end. He may be out of reach as the 30th player chosen from the position and the 224.5 player off the board.
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