A Sign of the Times?

Much has been spoken of the 2016 rise of the running back, including some by yours truly.  As this recent fantasy landscape flew in the face of conventional dynasty wisdom, which dictated that receivers were king, it becomes important to analyze.  So, what the heck happened?

I’m here to investigate exactly that.  By identifying this year’s trends versus 2015, we can hopefully glean whether or not there was a dramatic shift in the way teams approached their offensive game plans.  Continuing, we can also gain insight into what differentiated the league’s elite from the previous year’s cycle.

Let’s start with a broader scope.

League-Wide Rushing Output

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

To see if anything changed between 2015 and 2016, let’s consider the table below, which tracks every rushing attempt in the league for both seasons.

As can be seen above, there was actually a reduction in rushing volume between 2015 and 2016, as shown in the difference in attempts.  However, the efficiency was slightly better, as can be seen in total yards, YPC, and the weekly rushing yards per team.  The starkest difference, though, can be seen in the rightmost column.  Despite the fewer attempts, there were actually 78 more rushing touchdowns in 2016, representing a 21.37% difference.

League-Wide Receiving Output

When it comes to all of the receiving output in 2016 versus 2015, the numbers of targets and receptions were virtually identical.  The yards took a bit of a downturn, and the efficiency in yards per target (YPT) also experienced a negligible drop-off.  Not shockingly though, the touchdowns suffered the most (a 6.65% drop), which makes sense given that the rushing touchdowns increased.

Running Back Stats and Their Slice of the Pie

The rushing table in the first section above highlighted league-wide output, which could’ve come from any position.  From there, we can drill down to see the numbers which came solely from the ball carriers.  Please note that in this table, receiving statistics from running backs are also included.

As per previous, not a whole heck of a lot has changed in terms of rushing statistics, with the exception of touchdowns, which have increased by nearly a quarter.  The receiving statistics from the running backs actually decreased across the board, both with volume (targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns) and efficiency (YPT).  All told, the PPR points per attempt (PPA; encompasses rushes and targets) were roughly similar.

Well if the table above doesn’t help, perhaps the 2016 prowess of the running backs can be explained by them gaining a bigger piece of the pie.

Once again, not so much.  The running backs only sequestered a slightly larger proportion of attempts, yards and touchdowns when compared to the rushing stats across all the positions.  When compared to all of the receiving statistics (this time across all of the pass catching positions) they had a smaller amount of targets and receptions, but once again they contributed a larger fraction of scores through the air.

Receiver Stats and Their Relative Output

So thus far apart from touchdowns we really haven’t gleaned any understanding regarding the rise of the running back.  As such, it’s only reasonable to assume that the receivers tailed off, right?  Not so fast, my friend…

So the receivers, as it turns out, held up their end.  They were slightly less efficient (YPT) and scored a few less touchdowns, both of which are reflected in a diminished points per target (PPT).  But it’s not as if they fell off a cliff, and they even accrued more targets, receptions and yards.  So what was it then?  Perhaps they ceded work to the other pass catching positions?

Okay, what in the actual hell?  Once again, the receivers actually did better than in 2015!  They gained a larger chunk of targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns.  Quite simply, there was no league-wide trend to explain the flip-flopping of positional value.  So, what gives?

The Cream Always Rises to the Top

For this last exercise, let’s take a look at how the elite running backs and elite receivers compared to one another between the past two years.  To do so, I’ve compared the “1” tier (i.e. RB1, WR1; the top 12 at each position) from 2015 to 2016.  Let’s start with the ball carriers.

Aha!  Now here it is!  As has been shown in the end of the year data, the difference manifested itself amongst the top tier of backfield brethren.  Between the top-12 running backs in 2015 versus 2016, there was a nearly 21% gain in attempts, 26% increase in yards, and 35% increase in touchdowns.  The receiving statistics even improved incrementally across the board, though this was a massive factor.  All told the overall efficiency (far right column) wasn’t any different, but the volume and scoring carried the day.

Now let’s look at the receivers.

Friends, I think we’ve found it.  The elite running backs gained volume and the elite receivers lost it.  Once again, across the board the receiver faded with regard to targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns.  The efficiency remained stagnant, where it would’ve needed to dramatically increase in order for the pass catchers to retain their value.  There wasn’t a massive paradigm shift, it was simply shown that the best running backs in the league were fed as such, and the receiver weren’t.

In Conclusion

So what are the lessons learned?

1. There was no league-wide trend, apart from touchdowns:  Avid readers of my work know how I feel about scoring plays.  I believe they’re tough to predict, and represent a player’s ceiling relative to his floor.  In 2016, the ceiling was higher for running back when compared to receivers.  But from 2015 to 2016, all other factors essentially remained the same.
2. The NFL remains a passing league:  Once again, there were actually fewer rushing attempts in 2016 than there were in 2015.  The efficiency and touchdowns increased, but it’s not as if offensive coordinators made a concerted effort to take the balls out of the hands of their quarterbacks.
3. It pays to pay for elite ball carriers:  This is the big lesson learned.  I don’t want to say that receivers are a dime a dozen, because the top dogs still earn their keep.  But overall they didn’t have the ceiling of the top running backs, which means it’s easier to find replacement-level value.  I’m not saying you need to adopt a robust running back strategy, because these things ebb and flow, but the fact is the league’s best running backs were worth their weight in gold in 2016.  So, can we expect this trend to continue in 2017?

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

[/am4show]

• Author
• Recent Posts

Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

Latest posts by Eric Hardter (see all)

• Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Justin Jefferson Or A Bundle Of Draft Picks? - April 23, 2024
• Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
• Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024