Three Mock Drafts: A Retrospective

I had an odd mix of ups and downs this year, from playing in my first dynasty IDP league, to getting together with some local (and some not-so-local) DLF writers for a live draft to watching multiple teams that I thought had a good shot implode one by one. But though the balance sheet at the end of 2016 shows a net negative for most of my teams, I may have learned more about the game this year than any year prior. A lot of that has to do with my role right here at DLF. I get great opportunities to join interesting leagues, I get the chance to talk candidly with folks who REALLY know there stuff and I get the inside track to stuff like official mock drafts with knowledgeable owners. It’s that last piece I want to talk about here. Leading up to and during this season, I participated in three official DLF mock drafts led by Ryan McDowell. Since these drafts take place on My Fantasy League, I actually have a good running record of who I picked, what round I picked them in and how each of those picks turned out.  I learned a lot, and perhaps seeing what I did can help you in your dynasty draft thinking as well.

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Mock Draft #1: June 2016

This draft took place over the summer, well before the season started but also well after the NFL draft. I had a mid-round pick in this one, and it’s a good illustration of what I was thinking around that time.

What I Did Right

I’m very happy with what I did with my first three picks in this draft. I’ve been a Mike Evans guy basically since the end of last season. I felt he had a great price tag since his 2015 season wasn’t as stunning as his rookie year. I loved his talent and situation, and still do. It didn’t show I was smart, as that was the chalk at that time, but I still like it. I’ve also always been a fan of Devonta Freeman, and probably will stay that way into next season. I also like some of my later finds that look really good in retrospect: Michael Crabtree in the eighth, Delanie Walker in the 10th and Frank Gore in the 13th. I think my biggest win here was Matt Ryan in the 14th.

What I Did Wrong

Though I had three good wide receivers, I did a horrible job filling out my depth. Sure, a lot of those picks were huge flyers, but I could have found more serviceable guys to roster.  I also went too far in on some vets that didn’t pan out – namely Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. I also can’t believe how high I drafted Pharoh Cooper, though honestly many thought of him highly in June.

What I Learned

Depth matters. It’s ok to take a flyer or two late, but don’t take too many, as I did here.  I also learned that relying on too many veterans coming off of injury is probably not a great strategy for team-building.

Mock #2: September 2016

Fast forward a few months, and the football season is in full gear. At this point quite a few things have changed around the league, and we’re getting an idea of where things are headed. This draft also handed me the first pick, which is quite a different slot from the middle of the pack.

What I Did Right

You can’t go wrong with Odell Beckham, Jr. with the first pick. No, he didn’t have the No. 1 overall wide receiver year, but man he’s good and has a lot of years left. As in June’s draft, I’m also happy with my second and third-round picks in Jarvis Landry and Freeman. I also like where I got Mike Wallace considering his output, as well as Tyrod Taylor in the 11th.

What I Did Wrong

I took the bait on a few guys at the time – I bought too heavily into Tavon Austin and Tajae Sharpe. You can also see I was buying into the idea that Robert Griffin III could turn back into something. I didn’t spend too much, though. My real flub in this particular mock was what I did at tight end. It’s always a tough position, but I didn’t do myself any favors. Matt Jones might be the biggest regret here, however.

What I Learned

I wish I had focused a little more on the tight end position. I didn’t need four quarterbacks, and maybe could have lost a receiver as well to get more depth at TE. I also learned that owning Washington running backs is a loser’s game, with both Jones and Chris Thompson on this roster. Maybe keep that in mind when you’re thinking about Rob Kelley next season.

Mock #3: October 2016

Hey, we get a little Halloween theme up in here. A month later than the previous mock, the tenor of the season is really taking shape. I had the fourth pick in this draft. Also keep in mind the point totals are only from October on for this roster screenshot.

What I Did Right

Looking at this draft is tougher than the previous two. It’s not so much that I didn’t make good picks, I just landed on some guys that didn’t pan out this year. I started with DeAndre Hopkins, which was the right pick at that time. At this point of the season he actually looked good. He had one bad game, but we didn’t see the flop coming. Stefon Diggs has second-round talent, and he had blown up his first couple of games. DeMarco Murray in the sixth was like stealing, and I also like my later picks of Taylor, Robby Anderson and Cameron Brate.

What I Did Wrong

Matt Jones stung me again, for starters. And though I got Dion Lewis late, I don’t know if I got the value I hoped there. I can’t blame myself for Eric Decker, as he went out like a week after this draft.  I can blame myself for drafting Brock Osweiler. I don’t care how late it was, I didn’t see that coming.

What I Learned

This draft shows how the early season had influenced my thinking. I believe I drafted too many guys that had hot starts in hopes of them continuing their production. What I learned here is not to overreact to small sample sizes. If I had stuck to the chalk a little bit more here, I would have been better off. One thing I also learned here is that a bad draft isn’t always a bad draft. I think in this case I had a decent roster, I just had too many guys that missed their potential.

If you haven’t taken the time to look back at some of the drafts you participated in this year, I highly recommend it. If you had a lost year (like I did) it can really help get you focused and thinking about what you did wrong and what you can do better. Even if you don’t have your own mock drafts to look at, you can always take the time to look over the historical ADP on the site, courtesy of Ryan McDowell.

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