DLF's 2016 Predictions: Best Dynasty Sell

Posted on September 7, 2016

Most rookie drafts are in the rearview mirror, and the NFL Preseason is winding down. We’re all busy combing the news sites trying to keep abreast of all the important developments as we prepare for the best time of the year, the NFL season. That can only mean one thing – it’s time for us to put a bow on those reams of offseason content with DLF’s 2016 Fantasy Predictions. As we did last year, we have eight different prediction articles for you in the following categories:

Today we have our staff picks for this year’s Best Dynasty Sell, and we’ll drop a new article each day leading up to the first day of the season. Let’s get to it.

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Jordan Reed, TE WAS

Ranked as our TE3, Reed’s injury history, particularly with head injuries, is terrifying. When he’s on the field, he’s an animal, but I worry his value is peaking right now. Plus, tight end is low-key kind of deep now, so there are plenty of other serviceable options. – Austan Kas

Kevin White, WR CHI

I get the allure with White. He is crazy athletic and has a great draft pedigree. However, he still hasn’t played a down in the NFL, only had one year of elite production in college, and plays for John Fox with Jay Cutler. Too many question marks for me, I’m selling at his current value and buying later as I expect his value drops. – Trevor Bucher

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

Peterson is 31 years old and still has an ADP reflective of a late fourth or early fifth round selection. It’s very seldom (if unprecedented) for an owner to have a running back that old and still be able to get that kind of value for him. Last I checked, glitter and butterflies didn’t fly out of his knee when it was operated on, so he is actually human. If you’re not a bona fide contender, there’s absolutely no reason not to move him. – Ken Kelly

Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR

Benjamin’s stock has seemingly rebounded after missing 2015 with a torn ACL. His August ADP is 31. By all accounts though, he has struggled in training camp and Devin Funchess has looked much improved. Even if Benjamin can go back to or even slightly improve on his rookie year, he’s already priced pretty close to his ceiling (similar to Donte Moncrief), so cashing out right now could be the right play. – Jarrett Behar

David Johnson, RB ARI

Yes I know. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Sell David Johnson. If you can get full value, it’s time to pull the trigger. While I think he is super talented and will run across the universe this year, there is not a scenario in my mind where he is at the same or better ADP next year. You are looking at his value ceiling right now. When that 2017 class hits, hold your horses, it’ll be a bumpy ride for everyone. – Adam Tzikas

Lamar Miller, RB HOU

I like Miller enough to be comfortable with him as an RB1 on my team but his expectations are getting out of hand. I would sell him now because I don’t think there’s room for his value to go any higher, only downward. Honorable mention: Dion Lewis –Eric Olinger

Kevin White, WR CHI

I like White’s potential as much as the next person, but with an ADP of a second round start up pick, the Chicago receiver is far too risky to be valued so highly. He hasn’t even played a down in the NFL. If I owned White, I would look to parlay him with another piece to acquire a higher ranked (and more proven) wide receiver. When a player’s price isn’t taking into account his downside, more often than not the wise move is to actively try and move him while the value is there to do so. – Andrew Lightner

Kelvin Benjamin, WR Car

His statistics during his rookie season (2014) were elevated due to his 26.9 percent target share. He didn’t play at all in 2015 due to a torn ACL and his conditioning and weight has been a struggle for him. Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn will create more competition for targets, making it harder for Benjamin to remain a top fantasy asset. – Bruce Matson

Kelvin Benjamin, WR Car

Benjamin will never be in a better situation than he was in his rookie season when he was targeted 145 times and was the only real receiving option on the team. Now, a year removed from ACL surgery, Benjamin faces competition for targets from two receivers better than anything the Panthers had in 2014. There’s a very real chance that second-year receiver Devin Funchess out-produces Benjamin in 2016. – Matt Price

Jordy Nelson, WR GB

I see Jordy Nelson as an elite NFL receiver, even sans a Hall of Fame quarterback. However, I have a tough time investing a third round pick in a receiver who is now 31 and coming off a major injury. We have seen players hit a wall fast and I just do not have the gumption to bank of Nelson being productive into his 30’s. – Rob Leath

John Brown, WR ARI

At 26 years old, and only two seasons under his belt, we have already seen speedsters ceiling. I have no issue with Brown’s ability, but we have to take him for what he is: a deep ball threat. Carson Palmer is no spring chicken, and he’s the #3 WR on an offense that will likely look to run more often. Long term, I don’t see Brown keeping up with others who have similar value. – Dan Sainio

Jordan Reed, TE WAS

I love the talent. He’s something special, but there are so many injuries. The concussions are especially scary for me. I would sell him now, when you can get top value for him, because chances are slim he makes it all the way through the season. – Jacob Feldman

Jordan Reed, TE WAS

A little over a year ago Jordan Reed could be had for peanuts. We’ve always known him to be a matchup nightmare, but his health has been a huge concern for owners. Reed has had six concussions in five years – two of them severe enough to land him on IR. If he sustains another concussion, you’re going to be looking at a value nosedive. Oh, he also missed time with multiple lower body injuries. The season hasn’t even started and Reed is sidelined with a thumb injury. I can’t remember a time that someone was a bigger sell than Jordan Reed is right now. – Izzy Elkaffas

Thomas Rawls, RB SEA

As soon as Rawls hits the field from injury and has a two or three game streak; SELL SELL SELL. It isn’t that I think he lacks talent, but that I don’t trust his durability. Marshawn Lynch was a real work horse and Seattle likes to pound the ball. Lynch had his beast mode level, but I fear running backs like him are rare. I look for Rawls to do well, but likely return to the injury report. – Carla Gruse

Jordy Nelson, WR GB

Players are more prone to injury as they advance in age and Jordy Nelson is 31 years old. Here is a list of his career lower body injuries: sprained PCL, sprained ACL, injured bursa sac, hamstring, ankle, hamstring, nerve damage in knee, hip surgery, ACL, and knee opposite ACL while recovering. The other concern is his low guaranteed money with a high cap number versus his age plus many important unrestricted free agents for Green Bay. If he isn’t in GB in 2017 or 2018, would he be worth the investment at an ADP of 31? Nelson should have a good 2016, get out while you have time. – Nick Whalen

Tajae Sharpe, WR TEN

Sharpe is drawing plenty of buzz after the Titans traded Dorial Green-Beckham, and that’s warranted. But he’s a fourth-round pick in what looks like a bad, run-heavy offense. If you can get two 2017 second round picks for him — and I bet you can — take the quick profit and be happy with it. – Brian Malone

Doug Martin, RB TBB

In his rookie season he rushed for 1454 yards and had 15 touchdowns and caught 50 passes. He also had a very robust 4.6 yards per carry. His next two seasons, however, he found himself injured and only played in 17 games. His yards per carry dropped nearly a full yard (3.6 and 3.7) and punched it in three times. Then in 2015, he looked like the “Muscle Hamster” once again, as he rushed for 1402 yards and scored six times. He also brought up his yards per carry to 4.7 while catching 33 passes. Now, I am supposed to believe that Martin who has had one consistent good season in his contract year will now be worth a second round or first round draft choice? No way. – Mike Valverde

David Johnson, RB ARI

If I owned him in any of my leagues, he would’ve been shipped months ago. His value will never be higher, and it could fall as fast as Andre Elllington’s in year’s past. He’s got talent, obviously. But if he sputters and Chris Johnson shares more carries than expected, the arrow will point downward in a hurry. – Adam Bendzick

Jared Goff, QB LA

His play at Cal never truly impressed me enough to think he should have been the first pick overall. His preseason performance to date has been bad, no other way to state it. Goff is making poor decisions with the ball, and there are no redeeming qualities to help him recover from his bad decision making, like mobility. He has a sub-standard arm, and it shows far too often. Goff is a project quarterback, drafted in a position where teams want early production. If you can get a future draft pick for him now, I would do so. –Mo Brewington

Here are the vote totals for our Best Dynasty Sell:

We have a few guys bunched at the top, with KB and Reed leading the way. I guess a lot of people think Benjamin’s rookie year may have been an unrepeatable fluke. And I’m sure those Reed votes are all about the injuries, it certainly has NOTHING to do with talent.

If I were trying to unload anyone, it would be David Johnson. The price is just too high for me right now, and I’d love to cash out on a guy like that.

Who are you ready to unload this year? Who is your Best Dynasty Sell?

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Ryan Finley

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