The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Truth: Willie Snead

Jacob Feldman

Week 1 is in the books, which means we all know exactly how the fantasy season is going to play out! Dez Bryant and Todd Gurley are first round busts this year, Adrian Peterson is done, and AJ Green is going to break the single season receptions and yardage records in the same season, right? With the way some people are talking, you would think those were all locked-in stone cold facts.

Let’s face it, people overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to the world of fantasy football. We have a very strong tendency to let what happens in just 60 minutes completely overpower and sometimes erase what we studied for months or even what we’ve seen for years. Every once in a while we need to step back from the ledge, take a deep breath and remember extremes happen. Sometimes a perfect storm comes along and a player is great for a brief period before never being heard from again (Bryce Brown, I’m looking at you!). The exact opposite is, of course, true as well. There have been a ton of players who hit a little slump before leading more fantasy teams to the playoffs than beers consumed at a game in Lambeau Field.

That’s where I come in.

For the last few years, I’ve been doing my best to be an objective voice of reason each and every week. I try to pick one or two “breakout” or slumping players each week. I take some time to objectively look at the good news, the bad news, then give you what I hope is the truth about what you can expect moving forward. I’m not always right (then again, no one is!), but I like to think I’m right way more than I am wrong. I’m not afraid to say something unpopular or against the hype if it is what I believe. I was one of the first to tell you it is time to bail on Trent Richardson when the Browns traded him what seems like decades ago. I always felt Bryce Brown was a flash in the pan who wouldn’t hold dynasty value and I was one of the voices telling you Allen Hurns was good enough to stay the starter opposite Allen Robinson. All three of those were rather unpopular takes at the time, but they are exactly what all of the evidence point towards. People just needed to step back and take it all in, and I’m just here to help you do that.

Week one was and always is a crazy week. It included things like a one catch performance from Dez Bryant, a 33-year-old DeAngelo Williams leading most leagues in fantasy scoring, and 78 rushing yards combined between the greatest running back of the last decade (Adrian Peterson) and potentially the next decade (Todd Gurley) while unheralded rookie Jalen Richard managed 75 yards on a single carry. There is so much to choose from for this week, but I’m going to focus in on a young receiver who was flying under the radar just a little bit heading into the season prior to his great week one performance and ask if they can really keep it going – that player is none other than Willie Snead.

Willie Snead, WR NO

Week 1 Stats: Nine receptions on nine targets, good for 172 yards and a score.

If you expand his week one production out, we are looking at a season ending statline of 144 receptions for 2,752 yards and sixteen touchdowns. We all know that isn’t going to happen! But considering he had 69 receptions for 984 yards and just three touchdowns all of last season, I think we need to take a closer look at Snead to see exactly what we have here. Is he someone we can realistically expect to see as a WR2 with occasional great performances like week one or was it just a flash in the pan before he falls back into the WR3 or lower ranks?

Good: Everyone knows Drew Brees is the quarterback of the Saints, but I think people often forget just how good Brees has been over the years. Here is a quick look back at how Brees has finished each of the last few years in terms of completions and passing yards when compared to the rest of the NFL.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

breeschart

Stop and really think about that for a moment. The Saints’ passing offense has been at worst third over the last five years for receptions and never worse than second for yardage. Considering most of us give some kind of points per reception and everyone gives points for yardage, that’s worth noticing. Someone is on the other end of all of those points. For years, one of the people on the receiving end has been Marques Colston, who is no longer with the team. When you factor in the still glaring hole left by Jimmy Graham, there are a whole lot of passes to go around. The opportunity is definitely here for someone to make a huge splash.

Another major plus for Snead is his history with the team, even if it is brief. During his rookie season last year, Snead was third on the team in targets and receptions even though he only saw limited snaps towards the start of the season and missed all of one game and most of another due to injury. His yardage total was second on the team, and he clearly had chemistry with Brees. Even though Brees tends to spread the ball around quite a bit, Snead always seems to get his looks, giving him a higher floor than most. Snead had at least six targets in all but three of the games he was healthy for, one of which was his first game ever. Considering he caught almost 70% of his targets and had over 14 yards per reception, we are talking about a floor around four receptions for almost 60 yards with a ceiling of what we saw in week one – not bad at all given he is ranked as the WR50 by our rankers. Expect that to change if this keeps up at all.

Bad: The biggest issue people have with Snead are his measurables. At 5’11” and 195 pounds, he isn’t a big receiver, especially for someone who spends most of their time playing on the outside. It isn’t just his size either. If you look back at the combine, it was a pretty terrible showing. He was over 4.6 seconds in the 40 yard dash, barely managed 11 reps on the bench press, was below average in the jumps, and showed a lack of explosiveness in the shuttle and cone drills. In other words, he really isn’t an athlete by NFL standards. He lacks the physical traits most others in the league have.

The other major concern people have with Snead (or at least they did this offseason) is his fit in the current offense? Yes, Colston is gone, but the Saints paid Coby Fleener a rather hefty sum given his previous track record and they spent a second round draft pick on Michael Thomas. When you add Brandin Cooks and a running back out of the backfield to the mix, there were some talking about Snead as the fifth target in that offense. There were also some concerns about the future of Drew Brees in New Orleans given his contract status. With the new deal, that is likely a little bit less of a concern.

Ugly Truth: No matter where you stand on Snead, there are a few things you can’t deny. He doesn’t fit the typical physical profile of an NFL receiver. He’s too small and too slow by NFL standards and that won’t ever change. However, the good news is he has everything else you could ever hope for in a receiver. He has great hands, is a master route runner, and seems to have an excellent grasp on the offense. In this regard, he reminds me a lot of Wes Welker. Physically, Snead is significantly behind most other NFL receivers, but I think he more than makes up for it with all of the other qualities he possesses.

His place in the offense is a valid concern. There are an awful lot of mouths to feed in this system and almost all of them are more physically gifted than Snead. Not only that, but the Saints have quite a bit more invested in all of them than they do in Snead. The best news for this is how much Brees throws the ball. Take a look at the chart up above one more time. We are talking about a massive number of passes and yards with Brees under center. Even if players like Thomas and Fleener eventually leapfrog over Snead in the pecking order, Brees spreads the ball around so much that I would still be comfortable with Snead’s floor.

Final Verdict: I think it is time to buy Snead. The lack of physical ability doesn’t scare me because I think he has enough Wes Welker in him to overcome that. He’s bring priced as a WR4 or less in most leagues (or at least was prior to last week) and he’s going to give you at least 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues almost every week. He also has the potential to explode from time to time like he did in week one. I think even if someone like Thomas starts to step up, Snead has enough trust and chemistry with Brees built up to still be a high floor WR3 with WR2 upside if he stays the number two target in the passing game like he was last week.

[/am4show]

jacob feldman