Dynasty Stock Market: Quarterback Value

Ryan McDowell

As I have done in the past, I’ll be starting this season’s Dynasty Stock Market series with a deep look at the big four fantasy positions, my recent rankings update and some general strategy thoughts on team building.

I’ll begin with the current title holder for most underappreciated position, the quarterbacks. Late round QB remains all the rage and I can see why. The position is deep, there is little difference between the weekly QB5 or the QB15 and seems to be easier than ever to plays the matchups, so why pay up for one of the game’s top signal callers?

In a startup dynasty draft, I likely would not be drafting a quarterback before the eighth or ninth round, but even that is early by some measures. A pick in that range can likely get me one of my top six dynasty quarterbacks after I’ve spent my first several picks building depth at wide receiver, and maybe even a running back or two. Even with this mindset, I’ve found myself with rosters including at least one of my top tier quarterbacks. This happens because, nearly every year, I like to take a stab at drafting a rookie quarterback in the second round. Sometimes that player becomes Johnny Manziel, but other times I land a Jameis Winston type and I might have found my starter for the next several seasons.

With that background taken care of, let’s move on to my current rankings. I’ll share these in tiers, along with some thoughts about a few key players. Following the Week One action, I took another look at my quarterback rankings and already found a few changes that seemed necessary.

Tier One

QB1     Cam Newton, CAR (27 years old)
QB2     Andrew Luck, IND (27)
QB3     Russell Wilson, SEA (27)
QB4     Aaron Rodgers, GB (32)

I view most players in the same tier as essentially interchangeable, so when completing my rankings, I focus much more on which group to place a player rather than specific spots they may hold down. The members of this top tier can be considered the consensus top group by the majority of dynasty players. With only one season in his five-year career in which he’s finished outside of the top five fantasy quarterbacks, Cam Newton feels like an easy call as the top overall quarterback. His rushing numbers are likely to slow as he ages, but that’s not worth considering for the next couple of years.

Some dynasty owners seem to have soured on Andrew Luck after last season’s disaster and I think what we saw in week one is likely to be repeated much of the season. The Colts will fall behind and/or be forced to throw the ball early and often due to their poor defense. While this could make for a miserable season for Colts fans, it should be a huge benefit for Luck and the Colts receivers.

Russell Wilson had perhaps his best all-around season in 2015 and there were expectations that his passing volume would grow this season. I’m not ready to use the ugly week one matchup with Miami as a barometer as to what to expect going forward, so Wilson will retain this lofty spot for now.

Aaron Rodgers entered last season as most people’s top ranked quarterback, but had a rough season as the Packers dealt with injuries and disappointing play. He’s still an elite fantasy option and maybe the best quarterback in the game. His top wide receiver, Jordy Nelson, is now back and healthy and thanks to an easy breezy schedule this season, many are expecting an all-time great season from Rodgers.

When compiling my rankings, peripheral details such as age or injury history are often used as tie-breakers within tiers, so while I would love to have Rodgers on my dynast rosters, the five year age difference between he and the other three in this tier pushes him down to the QB4 spot.

Tier Two

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QB5     Jameis Winston, TB (22)
QB6     Marcus Mariota, TEN (22)
QB7     Derek Carr, OAK (25)
QB8     Blake Bortles, JAX (24)
QB9     Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (34)
QB10   Philip Rivers, SD (34)
QB11   Matthew Stafford, DET (28)

This second tier is a mixed bag of young quarterbacks who look to be the next generation of the position, finished off with some veterans who are reliable weekly fantasy starters. The quartet of Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles are all in their second or third year and each gave dynasty owners hope in 2015 that we are just seeing the beginning of their bright careers. Winston, Carr and Bortles also have the privilege of being paired with a top young wide receiver, namely Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and Allen Robinson, respectively. Who knows, maybe Mariota has found his star receiver in rookie Tajae Sharpe as well.

Tier Three

QB12   Carson Wentz, PHI (23)
QB13   Paxton Lynch, DEN (22)
QB14   Dak Prescott, DAL (23)
QB15   Matt Ryan, ATL (31)
QB16   Andy Dalton, CIN (28)
QB17   Kirk Cousins, WAS (28)
QB18   Ryan Tannehill, MIA (28)
QB19   Tyrod Taylor, BUF (27)
QB20   Jared Goff, LA (21)
QB21   Eli Manning, NYG (35)
QB22   Drew Brees, NO (37)
QB23   Tom Brady, NE (39)
QB24   Carson Palmer, ARZ (36)
QB25   Brock Osweiler, HOU (25)

Much like the second tier, this group begins with several youngsters and concludes with veterans who are certainly talented, yet also nearing the end of their careers. As I took a look at my rankings and made some post-week one adjustments, placing their three rookies (Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch and Dak Prescott) at the top of this group felt early, but I don’t consider any of the players behind them league winners. The only exception would be if I had a team that was a strong title contender. If so, players like Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Carson Palmer could certainly make a huge difference in the short-term.

Tier Four

QB26   Joe Flacco, BAL (31)
QB27   Jay Cutler, CHI (33)
QB28   Alex Smith, KC (32)
QB29   Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (23)
QB30   Tony Romo, DAL (36)
QB31   Robert Griffin III, CLE (26)
QB32   Sam Bradford, MIN (28)
QB33   Jimmy Garoppolo, NE (24)
QB34   Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ (33)

This is the tier of quarterbacks I really have trouble with, both in ranking and rostering. In reality, many of these players are probably not worthy of a roster spot in typical 12 team leagues, though almost all are holding down a spot in all of my leagues. The reasons are fairly obvious. Many in this group are currently NFL starters and most also have some name cache due to past accomplishments or even being high NFL Draft picks. In an ideal situation, none of these players are on my dynasty rosters. I hate saying that because two of my favorite players in recent years find themselves in this group – Tony Romo and Teddy Bridgewater. Both have some serious injury concerns that could ultimately lead to the end of their careers.

Tier Five

QB35   Trevor Siemian, DEN (24)
QB36   Cardale Jones, BUF (23)
QB37   Trevone Boykin, SEA (23)
QB38   Colin Kaepernick, SF (28)
QB39   Blaine Gabbert, SF (26)
QB40   Cody Kessler, CLE (23)
QB41   Geno Smith, NYJ (25)
QB42   AJ McCarron, CIN (26)
QB43   Mike Glennon, TB (26)
QB44   Christian Hackenberg, NYJ (21)
QB45   Mark Sanchez, DAL (29)
QB46   Brett Hundley, GB (23)
QB47   Garrett Grayson, NO (25)
QB48   Josh McCown, CLE (37)
QB49   Chase Daniel, PHI (29)
QB50   Connor Cook, OAK (23)

There’s not much to say about this final tier finishing out my current top 50 quarterbacks. In a typical 12 team league requiring just one starter at the position, I would likely leave these players on the waiver wire in favor of a flier at the running back or wide receiver position.

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ryan mcdowell