32 Teams, 32 Questions: NFC West

Ryan Finley

Arizona Cardinals

Is David Johnson the real deal, or a glimmering mirage in the Arizona desert?

The desert metaphor serves a few purposes. It not only frames the question at hand, but also serves a stand-in for the running back position in fantasy football as a whole. Not too long ago the running back was the crown jewel of fantasy squads, with owners targeting any number of solid, bell-cow backs across the league. Where we once had a bounty of reliable starters, we now find ourselves stuck with a collection of unproven young backs, injury-prone veterans, and talented-but-red-flagged backs that can’t seem to stay away from, well, banned stuff.

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So what’s an owner to do? Well, some of us find ourselves going all-in on guys just like David Johnson. And it’s kind of hard not to:

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I’ll give you a moment to wipe the drool off your chin. There aren’t many charts from PlayerProfiler.com that are this pretty. Most guys have at least one or two bars on the lower side, but Johnson’s cup runneth over. 4.5 speed at 6-foot-1 and 224 pounds? Where do I sign up? A lot of folks loved DJ going into last year for his athleticism, and he went and had a strong statistical year on 2015, especially once he was given the starting job.

But I’m not personally sold. DLF currently ranks him as the overall RB4, and that’s an awfully high grade for a guy with only one season under his belt. Two things force me to stay away from Johnson, at least at his current asking price: film and my gut. The film shows me a big, powerful back who doesn’t really know he’s a big, powerful back. I see a guy who would rather dance or bounce a run than lower the boom and get what yards are there. (Our own Jeff Miller went into this in depth earlier this year, if you really want to get into it.) It paid off for him more than once as his speed caught defenders by surprise, but that won’t continue. And the league is well aware of his prowess as a receiver at this point as well.

As far as my gut goes, that’s harder to contextualize. I am the type of owner who sometimes trusts my instincts, and my instincts tell me Johnson is a fantastic athlete but maybe not a great football player. I just can’t buy him at his current price, and as I don’t currently own him I don’t expect to any time soon. If I were an owner I’d be happy to hold him and watch what happens, but I missed that boat. I’m just still not sure it’s a boat I’d even want to be on.

Oh, and about those metrics – they aren’t everything:

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Los Angeles Rams

How soon will Jared Goff take over the starting job at the Coliseum?

I don’t think there’s any question Goff will be starting at quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams by the end of the season. The only real question is when this will happen. He has size, an NFL caliber arm, he can make all the throws, and he’s got a great resume of success at Cal. This isn’t the 80’s anymore, teams can’t afford to “groom” quarterbacks via the clipboard. This is especially true if said QB was the number one overall pick in the draft, and he’s playing for a team in a new (old) home. The Rams might be able to put off handing the reigns to Goff, but I can’t imagine they can put it off a whole season.

Yes, he’s looked bad thus far in preseason action, as rookie quarterbacks are wont to do. Goff does come from one of those dreaded spread offenses in the Cal Bear Raid attack. The quick strike attack at Cal won’t quite translate to the NFL game. He spent most (more than 90 percent in fact) of his time not under center, but in the pistol or shotgun behind center. Thus far he has looked somewhat uncomfortable dropping back in the NFL, but this is something that can and should get better with time.

So yes, Case Keenum will likely start the season at the helm. But how long will LA hold off? If they start 1-5, do they rip off the band-aid and start their quarterback of the future? Or do they hold all the way off until after their week 8 bye? I expect them to start Goff sooner rather than later. Not because he will outright win the job from the other quarterbacks on the roster, but because there’s no sense in waiting if the team isn’t ready to compete this year. The best way for Goff to learn the pro game and adjust to pro competition is to get in there as soon as he is able. It’s not like Keenum is some aged, wise veteran who can show him the ropes of being an NFL starter, he’s nothing more than a stopgap. Let the Goff and Todd Gurley era in LA get started – and soon. It will be some time before we know if Goff will be a successful quarterback in the NFL, but as the number one overall pick we have to expect he’ll get a more than adequate shot to find out.

San Francisco 49ers

Will Blaine Gabbert really beat out Colin Kaepernick for the starting quarterback job under new coach Chip Kelly?

Hey guys, guys…remember back in 2013? Whoa there, turn off Candy Crush, stop doing the Harlem Shake and listen. Can you imagine in 2013 that Kaep would have fallen so far? As some of my fellow DLFers, I’m a born and raised Bear fan. That meant I got to see the first start from Kaep in 2012 when he devastated my beloved Bears. At the time I thought “why can’t we get a QB like that?” By 2013, superlatives were flying freely about the up-and-coming star Colin Kaepernick, who had one of the brightest futures in the NFL.

Then football happened. It appears a creative coach (the since departed Jim Harbaugh) and a sometimes dominant defense may have masked the early flaws of Kaep. Over the next couple of seasons, as the team bled talent and coaches, the cracks grew more apparent.

But is the guy many considered the future of the position in the NFL about to lose the starting job to a guy named Blaine? What seemed impossible three years ago looks probable now, as the team seems to like that other guy. Heck, I even drafted Gabbert in the DLF Live Draft.

When I first heard that Kelly was headed to the bay, I thought he might be the guy to get the old Kaepernick back. I was actually excited to think about a mobile quarterback like him in the Kelly offense. (Remember how excited we used to be about basically EVERYONE in the Kelly offense? Talk about another fall from grace.) The problem here is that the Kelly offense puts a premium on accuracy, and that is perhaps Kaepernick’s biggest weakness. That’s why Gabbert may fit the scheme better, with his much better accuracy. But Kaepernick is still an extremely gifted athlete, and though his arm is inaccurate at times, it is strong enough to make all the throws. Maybe Kelly and Kaepernick can go on some kind of vision quest and resurrect their NFL careers together. Kelly and the tattooed wonder may still have some life left, and maybe Kaepernicking will come back with the Harlem Shake.

Seattle Seahawks

Is Tyler Lockett ready for NFL stardom?

Yes, yes, I know. There’s an awfully big question (or many big questions) about the backfield in Seattle. Do they believe in Rawls? (Yes.) Why did they draft so many guys behind him? (They needed depth.) Is Christine Michael finally ready to play football? (Ask CMike.) But at this point you’ve likely read a dozen articles on the Rawls question (read one from our own Matt Price here,) so I wanted to chew on something else a bit.

A certain well-regarded fantasy analyst who now has a gig with the NFL really likes Lockett. Matt Harmon has some extensive analysis in his piece, and it’s well worth a read. So what do the Lockett detractors have to say?

Seattle is a running offense

Historically, this is true. The Seahawks have relied on a powerful running attack along with a dominant defense to win games. The offense through the air they have gotten with QB Russell Wilson has always been a bit of a bonus. But as last season went on, the offense seemed to flow more and more often through Wilson. And to top it off, Beast Mode went and hung up his cleats. I think there’s a good chance this team is fully Wilson’s, and the offense will be run more and more through the air.

Lockett is too small

These folks are worried about Lockett’s 5-foot-10 182-pound frame. But, they tend to forget this other guy by the name of Antonio Brown who is 5-foot-10 and 186 pounds. That guy’s pretty good, in case you haven’t noticed. Smaller receivers can, and do, succeed in today’s NFL – especially those with quickness who can separate like Lockett.

He has a troubling medical history

Lockett went through a medical scare before the 2015 combine. I recall hearing some say that he could die on the football field, and his career was almost over before it started. But according to Lockett and that report, the medical scare turned out to be just that, merely a scare.

I’m personally a believer in Tyler Lockett and Matt Harmon’s analysis of him. If Lockett does take that huge next step this year, this will be the last time to get him at a reasonable price.

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