32 Teams, 32 Questions: NFC North
Chicago Bears
In 2016, will Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White become one of the best receiving duos in the NFL?
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We all know how valuable Jeffery is to Bears and to our fantasy lineups when he is healthy. In the nine games Jeffery played in 2015, he averaged 17.6ppg in PPR leagues, good for 11th among wide receivers. The knock on Jeffery has always been his issues with soft tissue injuries and they have once resurfaced early in 2016. Jeffery dealt with a hamstring injury on the sidelines the first week of August and missed the Bears’ first preseason game with the Denver Broncos. This is a “prove it” kind of year for Alshon, as the Bears decided to let him play out the final year of his rookie contract under the franchise tag, rather than sign him to a long-term deal. This indicates the team isn’t sure he is an elite receiver who deserves big time money in line with the league’s top earners at the position. As long as he can remain healthy, Jeffery should put up low-end WR1 numbers for us and be worth his second round startup price.
Kevin White essentially enters his sophomore season as a 24-year-old rookie. The seventh overall selection in the 2015 NFL draft missed his entire first season with a stress fracture in his shin. There have been conflicting reports about White’s progress as a player this offseason, ranging from “raw” to “looking like a beast”. If White is truly healthy and can tap into the talent he showed his senior season at West Virginia then he should be in for a nice season across from Jeffery who is sure to draw double teams on most downfield plays. With the defensive attention primarily concerned with Jeffery, White is in a nice position to thrive in matchups against weaker cornerbacks.
Even if the stars align and both receivers stay healthy and play a full 16 games, they will be reliant on the much maligned Jay Cutler to get them the ball. Adam Gase was successfully able to keep the reigns on Cutler in 2015 and reduce his interceptions total from 18 to 11 by focusing on lowering his passing attempts by 14%. With Gase and his QB friendly system now in Miami, will Cutler turn back into a pumpkin or continue the progress he made under his old offensive coordinator? Cutler’s play will ultimately determine the success of his talented receivers.
Detroit Lions
How does Anquan Boldin fit into the offense and what effect does he have on the other members of the passing game
I’ve heard people saying lately that Bolden will not be a fantasy factor with the Lions but I disagree. He may never be a player that you want to start, but I believe he will have a few big games this season simply due to the volume of the Detroit passing game. That makes him a nice late round pickup in best ball leagues where you don’t have to predict when the production will come.
Boldin’s production isn’t really what I want to talk about, though. To me, this signing could significantly impact the production of both Eric Ebron and Golden Tate. At this point in Boldin’s career, he wins with strength at the catch point over the middle of the field and close to the line of scrimmage. Bolden will be used in similar ways as both Ebron and Tate. While he may not do enough week to week to be considered in lineups, he can certainly do enough week to week to take a chunk out of those two pass catchers’ fantasy production. Case in point: during the week 1 preseason game against the Steelers, Boldin took a six-yard short slant over the middle for a 30 yard gain. You may be thinking “yeah but it’s just the preseason”, but that’s a play that likely drawn up for either Ebron or Tate if Bolden wasn’t on the team. To make matters worse, Ebron is dealing with an ankle injury previously thought to be an Achilles issue. It was just a scare and he is likely to be fine, but remember, Ebron is a player who has been nicked up with minor issues in each of his first two seasons and was expected to play a big role going forward. That role is now likely to be split with Boldin.
The one guy who should not be affected much by Boldin’s presence is Marvin Jones, who has emerged as the team’s WR1 in a more traditional sense. I believe Jones will be used more as a deep threat and be heavily targeted in the red zone as a touchdown threat where he has shown double-digit upside in the past. This area of the field is no longer a big part of Boldin’s game.
Green Bay Packers
Who will emerge as the WR3?
Behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, there is a big mess of receivers that are competing for the WR3 spot on the team. It will likely be third-year receiver Davante Adams, who many thought would be a suitable fill in for Nelson after showing promise as a rookie, but ultimately disappointed in that role. Adams posted a dismal 57.6% catch rate in 2014, but an even worse 53.2% catch rate last season in a more prominent role. He has reportedly had an up and down offseason but could still win the job.
In my opinion, Adams will be passed by one or both of Jared Abbrederis and Ty Montgomery. Abbrederis has been impressive in camp and earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers down the stretch last season due to his intelligence and route running ability. Montgomery impressed on both special teams as a kick returner and in limited offensive opportunities during his 2015 rookie season before going down to an ankle injury week six against the Chargers. He recently came off the PUP list and should resume practicing soon. Montgomery has a real chance to push for more time on offense if the team chooses to use Trevor Davis in the return game. I detailed both Abbrederis and Davis earlier this month in the Summer Sleeper series on DLF if you’d like to read more about this duo.
Jeff Janis may be a factor at some point but continues to struggle at building a rapport with his quarterback and is now dealing with a fractured hand. There is some speculation that it could cost him his spot on the final roster.
Minnesota Vikings
Will Jerick McKinnon be more involved with the offense in 2016 or will Adrian Peterson continue to be the centerpiece?
The Vikings were dead last in passing attempts last season with only 454 largely due to the combination of Teddy Bridgewater being more comfortable from the shotgun single back set and Peterson’s effectiveness in a more traditional I-formation with a lead blocking fullback. Under the leadership of defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer, the team chose to play good defense and ride their workhorse hall of fame running back to wins in 2015, rather than put the game in the hands of the second year quarterback. So what will Minnesota’s offensive gameplan be in 2016? If I was a betting man (and I am) I’d wager that we largely see the same formula with slightly more shotgun looks mixed in for Bridgewater.
Peterson’s contract leaps to 18M in 2017 but the team can let him walk with no cap hit if they are unable to locate a trade partner. Knowing they can get away scot-free after the 2016 season, why would the Vikings do anything other than squeeze every last ounce of production out of arguably their greatest player of all time, before he either retires or finishes his storied career with another team. Zimmer’s formula of playing great defense with a power running game got Minnesota to the playoffs and a divisional round game against the Seahawks that they lost by just one point, 10-9.
Should the Vikings do the obvious and continue with the same formula, where does that leave dynasty darling Jerick McKinnon? You’d like to think the talented third-year Sparq-x freak (100th percentile!) would get worked in more in 2016 than his 3.2 carries per game and 1.8 targets per game averages a season ago, but where will it come from? The Vikings were fourth in rushing attempts last season with 474 last season so there isn’t much room for growth there unless the Vikings either play a faster tempo or become even more run-centric than they were in 2015. The most likely path to production for McKinnon in 2016 is in the passing game. He showed just how dangerous he can be in week 14 last season when he caught all four targets for 76 yards and a touchdown.
Unlike Peterson, McKinnon has no issues running out of the shotgun (4.3ypc for his career vs Peterson’s 1.6ypc in 2016). If the Vikings do indeed want to push forward the development of their young quarterback, by shifting to a more shotgun-centric offense as they did at the end of the 2014 season when Bridgewater had the most impressive stretch of his short career in weeks 12-16, when he averaged a league-leading 71.7% completion percentage and threw eight touchdowns, then Peterson will have to show more from that formation than he did in 2015 or risk losing touches to McKinnon.
I personally see dynasty owners of McKinnon dealing with another season of frustration. Unless Peterson gets hurt or is ineffective, I can’t see McKinnon getting more than 75-100 carries but wouldn’t be surprised to see his reception total increase to somewhere in the 50 catch range. In 2017 Jerick McKinnon owners will have a brutal sweat in the NFL draft as the Vikings could very well draft one of the numerous talented rookies in next year’s class and further cloud the future of McKinnon as a feature back.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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