Summer Sleeper : Carolina Panthers

Zach Bahner

We begin our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers– Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers– An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper– A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Tyler Lockett or Carlos Hyde, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

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When looking at running back situations, the picture doesn’t get much clearer than the Carolina Panthers. Jonathan Stewart handles the early down work, Cam Newton gets a large share of the goal line work as the definition of mobile quarterback in the current NFL, and Mike Tolbert comes in to crush skulls and catch a football every once in a while.

Boasting the most rushing attempts in 2015, the Super Bowl runner-up Panthers don’t appear to have much room in their backfield. To make matters seem even worse, incumbent starting back Stewart is under contract through the 2018 season and doesn’t have nearly the amount of wear on his wheels as many 29-year-old backs thanks to sharing the backfield with DeAngelo Williams for the first seven of his eight year career. So, the question really is – what happens if Stewart gets hurt?

The answer to this question is three different players – the aforementioned Newton and Tolbert would likely have an uptick in work and second year back, Cameron Artis-Payne, is my pick for who would move into the starting role.

It’s difficult to imagine Newton having a huge increase in rushing production, but there would undoubtedly be at least a marginal increase in his rush attempts without a healthy Stewart in the backfield. When Stewart sat out weeks 15 through 17 during the 2015 season, Newton actually averaged 1.5 fewer carries per game, but this was the end of the season when it was imperative to keep the face of the franchise healthy for the playoffs.

Tolbert would also see an uptick in opportunity share, likely much more than Newton would. During the three games when Stewart was out, Tolbert’s opportunity share doubled from 10.1 percent to 21 percent.

The big winner was Artis-Payne, vaulting from a nearly non-existent 2.7 percent of carries before Stewart’s injury to 40.74 percent while Stewart was out. After Stewart’s return for the playoffs, Artis-Payne returned to the bench. When healthy, Stewart commanded 54.5 percent of carries, so it’s clear Artis-Payne was seen as the most reliable option for the bulk of the carries sans-Stewart.

There is another back who would get a boost from any kind of Stewart injury, Fozzy Whitaker. However, Whitaker isn’t anything more than a 5-8 carry guy for me, and even those few carries would be a great game for him. Artis-Payne has shown he can be relied on to be the top back in a timeshare for at least a short period of time.

In the event Stewart does miss time, Tolbert and Artis-Payne are both players who would need to be added in most leagues, but it would likely turn into a hot-hand approach. I don’t consider Artis-Payne as a player even approaching a long term replacement for Stewart – he has incredibly average speed, isn’t much of a pass catcher, and wouldn’t even be able to keep Tolbert from a timeshare – but there would be far worse options for an emergency fill-in if the circumstances were dire.

By our definition, Artis-Payne is considered a deep sleeper. His ADP of 217.5 and status nearly outside the top 70 running backs leaves him as a questionable draft selection, but he would be an absolute must add if Stewart were to miss any considerable amount of time. Don’t draft him inside the top 20 rounds. Don’t expect him to be a bell cow. Don’t give him anything more than a minimum contract in a contract league. Do thank me if some kind of insanity occurs and this ends up being good advice.

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zach bahner
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