Summer Sleeper: Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Whalen

We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Jay Ajayi or Isaiah Crowell, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Alfred Morris is going to spring up.  Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Whenever I’m searching the depths of my leagues for a deep sleeper, I prefer a few factors in a prospect: size, athleticism, production, and the potential for an opportunity. Prototypical size would be ideal, but they can’t be so deficient in this area that it would hinder performance (think Dexter McCluster). I don’t need to see elite combine measurables in every area, but I do like to see multiple tests in the above average range – as long as it translates on the field. Flashing good production for a short span in the NFL is a start, and season long in college. Lastly, I need to see a scenario where the player could have a good situation in the NFL.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Chris Conley, WR

Category: Sleeper

Kansas City WR Chris Conley checks most of the boxes above. First, he measured in at the NFL Combine at just under 6’2” 213 lbs. He boasts long arms at 33 ¾ inches, which place him in the 91st percentile and has hands measuring 9 ⅞ inches, which is the 81st percentile. All measurements put him in the prototypical WR1 range.

If you look at his mockdraftable profile, you will see a player that blew up the combine. 4.35 40 yard dash was in the 92nd percentile, 45” vertical jump was in the 100th percentile and 139” broad jump was in the 100th percentile. This is a reminder for those scoring at home. The 100th percentile is the absolute best someone can grade out! Yes, elite athlete or superman in spikes! However, Conley does have a few drills that turned out less than desirable. His 7.06 3 cone and 4.3 short shuttle were both 29th percentile.

The University of Georgia football program is great at running the football, but isn’t known for a high flying passing attack. In fact, AJ Green never topped 1,000 yards during his three years with the program. Seeing as the Georgia passing attack is correctly framed, let’s look at Conley’s career there.

 

Year Receptions Yards Average Touchdowns
Freshman 16 288 18.0 2
Sophomore 20 342 17.1 6
Junior 45 651 14.5 4
Senior 36 657 18.3 8

 

Some of the other receivers Conley was battling for targets over his four years: Tavarres King, Marlon Brown, Malcolm Mitchell and Michael Bennett. You may not be impressed with his statistics at Georgia, but he also led the team in receiving yardage in 2013 and 2014. When looking at his stats in the context of an average-to-below average passing attack, they don’t appear nearly as bad. His rookie season with Kansas City was underwhelming. He only saw 31 targets during the regular season for 17 receptions 199 yards and a touchdown. However, he saw an increase of attention in the playoffs with ten targets for six receptions 42 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Maclin was banged up, but Conley may have also been getting more used to the offense as well.  

The situation in Kansas City is a bit more cloudy. Star receiver Maclin finished 2015 as WR15 in PPR leagues and proved it can be done with conservative quarterback Alex Smith. Travis Kelce has proven to be a consistent performer, finishing as the TE7 in 2015 and TE6 in 2014. However, NFL players improve the most in their second season in the NFL and the starting spot opposite Maclin is Conley’s to lose. Albert Wilson moved into the slot during OTA’s after playing on the outside his first two seasons in the NFL. Conley took first team reps during OTA’s and minicamp in the off-season. Other competition comes from Demarcus Robinson, Mitch Mathews, Tyreek Hill, DeAnthony Thomas, and Rod Streater. Much of that group is raw, slot players or returners, and players not close to Conley in terms of talent. Conley should easily emerge as the starter opposite Maclin.

Dynasty is a long term game, so let’s see how the situation can change in a few years. Maclin is 28 years old and will get paid 12.4 million in 2016. He has 19.35 million guaranteed dollars left on his contract. Depending on performance, Maclin’s deal could be voided in the following seasons. In 2017, the guaranteed number drops to 7.2 million and his cap hit is 12.4 million dollars. Followed by 13.4 million cap hit in 2018 and 4.8 million guaranteed at age 30. The last year of his deal is worth 13.4 million dollars with only 2.4 guaranteed at 31 years old. Will Maclin get released? I don’t have a crystal ball or a Marty Mcfly sports almanac. However, I do know that’s an easy deal to void if the situation arises. Kelce’s contract mirrors Maclin’s in a way that it becomes team friendly in 2018. Kelce will be 28 years old with only 5.9 million guaranteed with a 10 million dollar cap hit. Both Maclin and Kelce have had serious injuries in the past as well.

Quickly summarizing. Conley has good size, elite athletic gifts and led his college team in receiving yards two years in a row. He should become a starting NFL WR in 2016, but may not become the leading receiving on the team until 2017, 2018 or 2019. So why should we be buying him? Price! The DLF ADP from July has Conley at 192! This is close to free territory and should be easy to acquire. The receivers directly in front of him are Steve Smith, Keyarris Garrett, Rueben Randle, Bruce Ellington, Terrance Williams, Kenny Bell, Pierre Garcon, Pharoh Cooper, Braxton Miller, Rashard Higgins, Rishard Matthews, Vincent Jackson and Jeff Janis. I count 13 in this list front of Conley that I wouldn’t take before him. While I could continue to add names to this list, you get the point. Conley is severely underrated in dynasty circles right now. Even if the breakout isn’t in 2016, his price should be near the lowest it will ever be.

[/am4show]

nick whalen
Latest posts by Nick Whalen (see all)