32 teams, 32 IDP questions – NFC South
We’re in the heart of training camp, which means frequent news updates and plenty of ensuing questions. It also means we’re only a few weeks until rosters and depth charts are set for week one. On the IDP side, we’re analyzing all 32 teams separately to address a related question about each team.
There are position battles and injury concerns in the NFC South with potentially significant IDP implications. Today, we will take a look at four of those situations and assess the IDP impact.
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How much of an impact will De’Vondre Campbell, Deion Jones and Keanu Neal have as rookies?
When Dan Quinn left Seattle to take over the head coaching gig in Atlanta he knew he was going to have to tread water with the defense he inherited. The unit was lacking in talent and struggled to put Vic Beasley, the eighth selection in the 2015 draft, in positions to make a real impact. He registered 33 hurries but only brought the quarterback down a total of four times while playing in all 16 games. Now he’s moving to the Bruce Irvin role in Quinn’s defense in an effort to maximize his potential. Although, this year he’ll have more help in the form of three talented rookies.
The Falcons used their first two selections and three of their top four on defensive impact players. With the 17th selection in round one they took strong safety Keanu Neal from the University of Florida. Neal is a 6-foot-0, 211 pound in-the-box safety who has been heavily praised for his work ethic. Since being drafted and prior to training camp, Neal has been working out with former Quinn disciple, Kam Chancellor. Neal will be asked to do many of the same things Chancellor does for the Seahawks. Coach Quinn has said Neal’s physical style of play is “already coming to life”. With William Moore no longer on the team, it’s very clear Neal will start from day one as a rookie.
In the second round they took the first step in shoring up their linebacking corps with the selection of LSU’s Deion Jones. It’s very clear the Falcons want to increase their defensive speed with the selections of both Jones (4.38 second 40-yard dash at LSU Pro Day) and Campbell (4.58 second 40-yard dash). Even though Jones was a stud as a senior in Baton Rouge, it was his only year as a starter after spending his first three seasons as a reserve and special teams player. Jones is competing with incumbent Paul Worrilow for the starting middle linebacker spot and at worst will open the season as a sub-package player on passing downs but he’ll have the entire preseason to take the job all together. It’s just a matter of time until Worrilow is overtaken for the full-time gig.
The third impact player taken by the Falcons is De’Vondre Campbell out of Minnesota. As mentioned earlier, Campbell is another speed linebacker slotted to step into the WILL linebacker role right away. He’s already turning heads too. On the first day of training camp he drew the assignment of covering Tevin Coleman out of the backfield. On this play Coleman was to run a streak down the field and with a linebacker on him he should’ve been off to the races. That wasn’t the case. Campbell turned upfield and ran stride for stride with the speedy tailback, preventing the pass completion. Nobody was more surprised than Coleman that a 6-foot-3, 234 pound linebacker had that kind of speed. It will be a major upset if he doesn’t start week one on the weakside.
How do the Panthers replace both Josh Norman and Charles Tillman at cornerback?
Josh Norman parlayed an incredible 2015 season into a five year, $75 million contract with the Washington Redskins this offseason. You have to wonder if Norman was a beneficiary of the Panthers front seven or if Norman’s ability to shadow wide receivers for an extended period of time bought the defense a couple more seconds to get pressure. Tillman retired after playing 13 seasons and coming off of a week 17 ACL injury. The Panthers will now turn to Bene Benwikere, Robert McClain and rookies James Bradberry and Daryl Worley to replace Norman and Tillman this year in a revamped secondary.
Benwikere is entering his third season with the Panthers and coming off of an injury shortened 2015 after breaking his leg in week 13. Prior to the injury he was playing at a high level as a slot corner with 59 total tackles and a sack. Since coming off the PUP list on August 3rd, he has remained in the slot as the two rookies have lined up on the outside in base defenses. It appears the Panthers are willing to allow Bradberry and Worley to be baptized by fire in 2016 as the future at the position. They’re both good size on the outside at 6-foot-1 and around 210 pounds.
In a division with Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Jameis Winston the tandem won’t have many down weeks but it should also give them plenty of IDP appeal as these quarterbacks won’t hesitate to force feed the like of Julio Jones, Mike Evans and the wide array of weapon in New Orleans. In IDP leagues you often want to focus on rookie cornerbacks opposite shutdown corners but in this case Benwikere, Bradberry and Worley could all carry value in deeper leagues requiring starting cornerbacks so pay close attention during the preseason games to see if they’re in over their heads or if they’re able to hang.
How much will Stephone Anthony’s move to the strong side impact his IDP value?
Historically, the SAM linebacker spot has not been a sexy IDP position but recently there have been exceptions to the rule and Anthony should be another. After an exceptional rookie season in which he finished with 111 total tackles, 69 solo and 42 assists, a sack, an interception and two forced fumbles as the defensive play caller from the MIKE linebacker position, the Saints decided to move him to the strong side after bringing in James Laurinaitis in free agency. He will now man the middle and make the play calls while Anthony will drop into coverage more often. Laurinaitis has never finished with fewer than 109 total tackles in his seven year career but his play has fallen off over the past couple seasons. Pro Football Focus ranked him dead last against the run among the 60 qualifying linebackers and 59th overall.
With Dannell Ellerbe playing the weak side it remains likely Anthony will see plenty of passing down work as an every down linebacker. The only time Anthony may come off the field is when the Saints leave just one linebacker on the field. Ellerbe has been a massive disappointment since the Saints traded for him two years ago. He’s appeared in just seven games the past two seasons and even took a pay cut to stay with the team.
Anthony’s IDP value will take a step back in 2016, mainly because his tackle numbers are surely to drop a bit, but he has the potential to offset the drop in tackling production with big play opportunities. Having Laurinaitis around to mentor the promising sophomore should actually be a long term blessing for Anthony. He was able to take Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron under his wing during his time in St. Louis and he should do the same for Anthony. The two have reportedly formed a fast friendship as Laurinaitis helps him learn how to prepare for playing not just the SAM position but all three linebackers spots. Right now is a great time to buy low on the ultra-talented second-year player.
What can we expect from the rebuilt Tampa Bay defensive line?
The Bucs made a conscious effort to improve their lackluster defensive line this offseason with the additions of free agent Robert Ayers and the selection of Noah Spence in the second round of the draft. The Bucs defense finished second in the league in total tackles (1,032) last year but finished tied for fourteenth in sacks (38) and 24th in sack efficiency with 3.68%. For reference, the Broncos led the league in both sacks and sack efficiency (6.03%) with 52 sacks on 862 total tackles.
So where are the sacks going to come from in this group? Gerald McCoy led this unit with 8.5 sacks in 2015 from the interior of the defensive line and will definitely be a major factor. What made this even more impressive is he was able to do it with a torn rotator cuff suffered in week two. He remains a top tier defensive tackle in IDP leagues. Ayers is man most likely to lead this team in sacks this year. He said his goal is to record his first double-digit sack season after falling just short with 9.5 in 12 games last year. While not a flashy or sexy name in IDP leagues, Ayers is a guy I’m comfortable starting as a high end DE2 on a weekly basis. He finished 2015 on a massive tear with eight sacks over the final seven games.
Starting on the other side of Ayers will be the run stuffing William Gholston. He’s coming off of a career high three sacks and a knee injury. His IDP appeal comes from tackle heavy scoring for defensive linemen. He finished with 67 total tackles last year but isn’t much of a pass rush threat and will come off the field for Jacquies Smith or Spence. Smith finished second on the team in sacks last year with seven sacks but his overall poor play was the main reason they brought in Ayers and Spence. He’ll lose a lot of work this year and should see a sharp decline in production.
Spence is the name most dynasty leaguers are excited about. He was selected with the 39th overall selection in the draft after one year at Eastern Kentucky. He had to transfer from Ohio State after failing two separate drug tests for Ecstacy. He has been clean since checking himself into rehab. Now he finds himself in a very solid situation in Tampa Bay. He’ll begin his rookie year as a situational pass rusher behind Gholston as he learns the ropes of NFL defenses. Early word has been nothing but positive on the rookie. Veterans Ayers and defensive tackle Clinton McDonald said he is an “X-factor” and praised his abilities and willingness to learn. The Bucs are counting on him to keep his head on straight and give them around eight sacks as a rookie before taking over a full time role in 2017. He has the look of an annual double digit sack guy but you’ll have to be patient, like with most rookie defenders.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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