Summer Sleeper: Miami Dolphins

George Kritikos Posted On July 24, 2016

We begin our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Tyler Lockett or Carlos Hyde, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

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Miami has accrued offensive assets for the last few years. Unfortunately, up until now, that arsenal of talent has done little to help their team win games (their last winning season was 2008) much less provide a consistent fantasy offense. In 2015, the Dolphins were 26th in offensive yards and 27th in points scored among NFL teams. No running back had over 200 carries and only Jarvis Landry surpassed 50 receptions last year.

The question this off-season was simple: How do the Dolphins finally harness their offensive talent? Enter Adam Gase. The former offensive coordinator for the Bears and more famously the Broncos is now aboard as the head coach. The team also shored up depth issues at offensive line, wide receiver, and running back while they watched their divisional rivals deal with quarterback concerns. Both Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning had arguably their most efficient seasons under Gase so Ryan Tannehill could finally take the leap that has been expected for several years now.

The starting positions at the skill positions are pretty set. Landry and Tannehill have proven to be successful while Devante Parker and Jay Ajayi are well known to the community as potential breakout candidates. Young rookies like Leonte Carroo, Thomas Duarte, and Jakeem Grant have been given various levels of hype this off-season. The focus here will be on a former dynasty darling turned pumpkin.

Jordan Cameron, TE MIA

Category: Sleeper

To call 2015 a disappointment would undersell a miserable year. Cameron came over after four years in Cleveland, including a 2013 season that led him to a second-place fantasy finish at the position. His success there caused the Dolphins to offer a two year contract worth $15 million, which was among the highest annual salaries for a tight end. He responded with a 35 reception season (on 70 targets) with 386 yards (11 yards per reception) and three touchdowns.

So why am I even recommending him to you? Well, let’s start with his athletic profile. Via our friends at PlayerProfiler.com, one look at Cameron’s various workout metrics makes it clear to see that he is a freak. Considering his size at 6’5” and 245 pounds, Cameron can do things few athletes his size are capable of. That 99th percentile catch radius also stands out for a quarterback like Tannehill who has struggled with deep ball accuracy.

Unfortunately, Cameron’s production has usually failed to live up to the physical profile. Outside of his 2013 breakout season, Cameron has a 50% career catch rate. Add in a sub-5.0% touchdown rate, which is very low for a tight end. When you start to break down what made Cameron successful in 2013 and fail in 2015, you see some startling changes in his deep and short receptions. In 2013, Cameron caught over 50% of his deep targets and 73% of his short passes, both above NFL average. 2015 saw a huge decline in both with under 30% of his deep targets caught and just 60% on short throws, both of which are well under the league average. While the first instinct would be to blame Tannehill, he was actually league average on both deep and short throws in 2015.

Let’s revisit this Adam Gase acquisition for a moment. Gase had Julius Thomas for two years in Denver, who had 12 touchdown receptions in each of those seasons despite missing five of a possible 32 games. Add in eight last year in Chicago from the mixture of Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller and there is a lot of red zone upside for the high pointing athletic Cameron. Gase’s tight ends also have a 70% catch rate on roughly 11.5 yards per reception, the latter being right in line with Cameron’s career average (12.0). The favorable coaching only helps so much but at least we can say that it is likely to be a positive.

I like to think that there are mixed messages here for Cameron’s 2016 outlook. That 2015 season caused him to re-negotiate his contract with the Dolphins, saving them some money and making Cameron a free agent after the 2016 season. The Dolphins, though, did not actively seek out much competition with last year’s backup Dion Sims returning and just hybrid TE/WR Duarte added to the mix. Cameron is being picked at 214 in startups based on July’s DLF ADP, which places him as the TE28, or a “high-end” third tight end for a dynasty team. Less than a year ago, he was a borderline top 100 dynasty pick. In the late rounds of a startup, drafting a player conceivably in his prime (27 years old) with an improved situation, success in the past, and the motivation of free agency to do well again is the definition of a sleeper candidate.

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