Running Back Danger Rankings: Part Two

Ryan McDowell

Note: This is the second piece in a two-part series. Check out part one here!

The NFL off-season provides coaching staffs and general managers with multiple opportunities to improve their team. While a player may enter the off-season as his team’s presumed starter, there are many landmines that must be avoided to retain that title. The most dangerous of those include free agency, the NFL Draft and training camp. These times can be especially worrisome for running backs given the changing mindset of the NFL, which seems to prefer a committee attack over an every down back. While this shared responsibility should extend the relevant playing time of running backs, their “life span” as a fantasy factor seems to be shrinking by the season.

Maybe more than ever before, there is a large group of “danger” backs, those running backs who are penciled in as their team’s starter, but are far from a safe bet to be the go-to player once the pads go on in the fall. Some of those backs suffered a hit to their value during the free agency period when their team pursued another back. Others were able to breathe a sigh of relief, but another land mine is on the horizon with the upcoming NFL Draft. If you own these players, you must be prepared for this potential change in value.

I took a look at each team’s current starting running back, according to the depth chart at FootballGuys.com, and ranked them all based on how dangerous they are to own. Obviously, these players have a variety of risks, including injury or off-field issues, but I have ranked them solely with the NFL Draft in mind. A team unlikely to draft a running back means their current starter would rank low on this “danger scale,” while a team almost certain to draft a running back means their current back is very dangerous to own right now.

We’ll go in reverse order, meaning these are some of the “safer” backs to own in dynasty leagues. Remember, this is not a ranking of the value of these backs, but only their danger level.

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  1. DeMarco Murray, TENmurray

The Titans have spent draft picks in the past two seasons on running backs and both Bishop Sankey and David Cobb have failed to produce. With that, they brought in Murray, who should handle the majority of the touches for the next two or three seasons. If they are ready to totally move on from Sankey and/or Cobb, they could add another depth back in the middle rounds of the draft.

  1. Ameer Abdullah, DET

The Lions have a lot of bodies at the running back position, but they can’t feel confident with any of them as their Week One starter. Abdullah is the current favorite for that role, but he struggled at times during his rookie season. Theo Riddick excelled, but is strictly a third down pass catcher. The Lions also brought in reclamation project Stevan Ridley, who has been a starter in the league before, but not recently. I have a hard time seeing the Lions taking a back early in the draft, considering their other pressing needs, so they might just stick with Abdullah and find out what they have in their 2015 rookie pick.

  1. Dion Lewis, NE

Honestly, it is just impossible to project what Bill Belichick and the Pats could do. As of now, they are set to return Lewis, along with LeGarrette Blount, James White and Brandon Bolden, along with the newly signed Donald Brown. With some many options, running back should not be an option for New England, but they never hesitate to bring in a player who could be a difference maker.

  1. Carlos Hyde, SF

For different reasons, Chip Kelly is just as difficult to project when it comes to personnel moves. Kelly chased many of the Eagles’ most talented players and we’ll see if history repeats itself. For now, Hyde looks like the hands down starter, though Shaun Draughn did surprise and earn a new contract after his 2015 performance. Considering all of the holes on that team, spending an early pick on a running back makes little sense, but I just can’t allow myself to trust Kelly, or as a result, Hyde.

  1. Isaiah Crowell, CLE

Just when we think the Browns have their running back position figured out, they go and add another. It was just two years ago they selected Terrance West only to later sign Isaiah Crowell and they followed that up with the third round selection of Duke Johnson a year ago. At this point, Johnson looks like the only decent option and the Browns can’t feel confident with Crowell as the lead back. With their move down to the 1.08 pick, there are rumors they could select Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott.

  1. Justin Forsett, BAL

The Ravens suffered through a terrible season in 2015, largely in part due to injuries. Forsett, the team’s starting back, was just one of many to suffer season-ending injuries, but he is expected to be back and fully healthy. Last year, the team turned to rookie Buck Allen, who was mediocre at best. The Ravens can’t expect either of these to be the 2017 starting back, so they could start the shopping early.

  1. Jonathan Stewart, CAR

The fantasy community has been itching to replace Stewart for years, but he responded with possibly the best season of his career in 2015. Of course, the key to that was he was able to stay healthy for the majority of the season. If he can repeat that, the Panthers don’t have much to worry about, but I doubt they are confident in that either. They also have Cameron Artis-Payne, a 2015 rookie who failed to impress. They might be ready to move on from him already.

  1. Thomas Rawls, SEArawls

With the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks could’ve been left holding the bag if not for the excellent undrafted free agent signing of Rawls. With Lynch out much of the season, Rawls didn’t miss a beat and dynasty owners reacted by quickly valuing him among their top ten backs. While the Seahawks did re-sign Christine Michael, they made almost no commitment to him and should add another option through the upcoming draft.

  1. Jeremy Langford, CHI

The Bears let Matt Forte walk, which shows a certain level of confidence in the second year back Langford. He’s yet another rookie back who performed so well for teams in 2015 and most are now set to start in 2016. I still expect Langford to begin the year as the starter, but he is not a player I trust long-term, and maybe not even through the entire 2016 season, depending on how early the Bears select a back next week. They are another team who is rumored to have interest in Elliott.

  1. Latavius Murray, OAK

While he performed reasonably well in 2015, it is almost a certainty that the Raiders grab a rookie back on the first two days of the draft. Head coach Jack Del Rio has passed on tabbing Murray as the team’s start next season and they were also rumored to be interested in multiple free agents, along with the rookie Elliott.

  1. Matt Jones, WAS

The Redskins surprised everyone when they selected Jones on the second day of the draft last season and Jones in turn surprised us with his play on the field. He quickly turned the Redskins backfield into a timeshare, which ultimately allowed the Skins to say goodbye to Alfred Morris. With only Chris Thompson behind him, the team must add a back and there is a strong chance the committee attack continues in the nation’s capitol. There are a handful of runners in this rookie class who could eat into Jones’ carries. If you have a Jones’ fan in your league, now is the time to sell!

  1. Jay Ajayi, MIA

Potentially the most desperate team when it comes to running back shopping this off-season has been the Miami Dolphins. After Lamar Miller bolted for Houston, the Dolphins were left with Ajayi as their lead back and that is clearly an issue for them. They’ve been linked to CJ Anderson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster and basically every other available back, yet haven’t signed any of them. With few options left on the free agent market, the team may be forced to spend an early pick on a rookie runner.

  1. Ryan Mathews, PHI

The moment the Eagles surprisingly dealt DeMarco Murray to the Titans, Philadelphia was in the market for a new running back. With Mathews and Darren Sproles left on the depth chart, the team would be looking for an every down back. When the Eagles were set to pick eighth overall, it looked like that could be the Buckeye superstar, but their big move up to the second pick makes it clear they are in the market for a quarterback. That give Mathews a bit of a reprieve, but the team still has some mid-round picks to use on a rookie back.

  1. Darren McFadden, DAL

Last season, we got a surprisingly solid performance from McFadden, who even made some appearances in fantasy starting lineups. The Cowboys clearly aren’t satisfied though considering they added Morris from Washington and are still very likely to add another rookie. While McFadden is listed as the starter, I see Morris as the player who some dynasty owners are hoping to use as a short-term starter. A running back selected in the first two days of the draft could dash those hopes.

  1. Frank Gore, IND

Somehow, old man Gore just keeps producing. You might even be surprised to read that he was just outside the RB1 range last season, nearly breaking the 1,000 yard barrier in his eleventh season in the league. I still expect Gore to be the Colts’ starter this season, but the depth chart is barren behind him and he is soon to turn 33 years old. The Colts must begin looking for their next starter and that search could culminate in the upcoming draft. The Colts adding a quality rookie would not destroy Gore’s dynasty value considering he doesn’t have much value left, but for those counting on one more season of starter’s numbers, the draft could sting.

  1. Rashad Jennings, NYG

The good news is you’re likely not expecting much from Jennings, who was a bust as part of the Giants’ three-man RBBC. He wasn’t alone though, both Shane Vereen and Andre Williams were also terrible in their own right and none of the three have much, if any, dynasty value. Even with the disappointment of their running game, receiver might be consider even a greater need for the Giants. While I actually like Vereen to bounce back to the fantasy radar, they must upgrade over Jennings and Williams.

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ryan mcdowell