Instant Analysis: Boston TE Party

Graham Barfield

Early Wednesday evening news dropped that Martellus Bennett was traded out of Chicago to the New England Patriots for a fourth round pick. The Pats’ will receive a sixth round pick in addition to Bennett. While in Chicago last year, Bennett was openly frustrated with his role in the offense and the Bears’ made it clear they were willing to part ways with the 29-year-old tight end.

Here are some quick hitting thoughts about how this trade affects the Patriots offense, Bennett’s dynasty value, and whether or not Tom Brady is undervalued.

How Will the Pats’ Dispatch Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett?

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

To answer this question, I went back and pulled formation data when the Patriots had Aaron Hernandez and when they specifically utilized two tight end sets as their base formation set.

From 2010-2012, when Hernandez was still a member of the Pats’, New England had two or more tight ends on the field on 64.5% of their plays — contrasted to 49 and 52 percent in the last two seasons. While that’s roughly a 15% decrease in two tight end formations over the period of time with and without Hernandez, the Pats’ still heavily utilized multiple tight end sets compared to the league norm.

In fact, according to this 2013 study by Pro Football Focus, the league average for ‘12’ personnel groupings (1 running back, 2 wide receivers, and 2 tight ends) was 19.7%. Per Alex Gelhar of NFL.com Fantasy, the Pats’ were in ‘12’ personnel on 39 and 42 percent of their overall plays in the past two seasons.

So, we know that the Patriots like, perhaps even prefer, to use two tight ends on offense. Now, the more important question remains: are there enough targets for Martellus Bennett to have consistent fantasy value?

Not including both of their rookie seasons (2010), through 2011-2012, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski actually split targets almost evenly (203:196), in favor of Gronkowski. Now, both tight ends missed time during this span (Gronkowski missed five games, Hernandez missed eight appearances) but this period does serve as a loose barometer of how often the Patriots would like to use both of their tight ends. 40.2% of the Pats’ total targets from 2011-2012 were locked up between Gronkowski and Hernandez.

To be honest, receiving about 20% of the Patriots targets feels like the best case scenario for Martellus Bennett in the next two seasons. When all three were active, Julian Edelman (23.9%), Rob Gronkowski (21.1%), and Dion Lewis (18.3%) comprised 63.3% of the Patriots total target share in 2015. Bennett will most certainly fill in Scott Chandler’s 8.4% target share he saw in 2015, but keep in mind, the Patriots also just signed Chris Hogan from Buffalo and may add another wide receiver via free agency, a trade, or the draft.

While it’s entirely possible Bennett receives the 8.2 targets per-game Aaron Hernandez saw in 2011-2012, it would have to come at the expense of Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski — two players that are completely vital to the Patriots offensive attack.

To me, Bennett should have a safe, basement-level floor of 60 targets (9-12% of team targets) but an absolute ceiling of somewhere in the 100-110 target range (16-18% of team targets) — barring an injury from Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski.

Putting that into league-wide perspective, only nine tight ends saw 100-plus targets in 2015, six did in 2014, and seven different tight ends had triple digit targets in 2013. Over the past three seasons in Chicago, Bennett has averaged no fewer than 6 targets per-game (96 targets/season). In those three seasons, Bennett finished as the TE14, TE6, and TE13 in PPR points per-game. For Bennett to transcend and keep his “TE1” status in dynasty leagues, he’ll have to be very efficient with his targets as the No. 2 tight end in New England.

Tom Brady is Probably the Biggest Benefactor

Now Tom Brady has another 6-foot-6-inch tight end opposite of Rob Gronkowski to throw to. That’s exactly what he needed. 32.2% of Brady’s total red zone targets went to tight ends last season and 42.3% of his red zone looks went to Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski between 2011-2012.

During that 2011-2012 span, Brady completed 59.8% of his passes for a 53:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the red zone. Over the past two seasons, Brady has remained incredibly proficient in the red zone, completing 59.6% of his attempts and turning in a 53:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With another monster target to throw to, Brady has yet another toy to utilize from in close.

As it stands now, Brady is currently the No. 12 quarterback in DLF’s average rankings and was the 10th signal caller off of the board in the March ADP update. To me, even though he turns 39-years-old in August, Brady is undervalued in the dynasty community.

Over the past five seasons, Brady has one season (2013) lower than QB9 in fantasy points per-game. With Martellus Bennett in town, a healthy Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman back, the addition of Chris Hogan and perhaps another wide receiver via the draft, trade, or free agency, Brady sets up perfectly to continue his consistent dominance. Once the free agency dust settles, I plan to move Brady up from my ranking of No. 8 quarterback overall into the 4-6 range.

[/am4show]

graham barfield
Latest posts by Graham Barfield (see all)