Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers part 2
Throughout the season, the Rookie Report Card has covered some of the biggest rookies and not only looked at their performance to date – but also their long term upside. Now that the regular season has wrapped up and fantasy owners are looking towards the future, we have an opportunity to take one last look at the 2015 season and assess the rookies – A final report card if you will. I already covered the quarterbacks and running backs so let’s move on.
We covered 25 rookies throughout the season, including 12 wide receivers. Let’s put a bow on the season by taking one more look at those pass catchers’ first shot at catching the ball on Sundays, as well as a quick glimpse into their futures in part two of the Final Rookie Report Card – Wide Receivers.
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Justin Hardy, WR ATL
Season Stats: 21 receptions, 194 receiving yards, zero touchdown receptions
Hardy entered the league with some hype among dynasty owners but couldn’t beat out Leonard Hankerson for the third receiver job out training camp and couldn’t even overcome Nick Williams to be active on game days early in the season. Although he started to see the field late in his rookie year, he made very little impact as a possession receiver, averaging just 9.2 yards per catch on his 21 grabs.
Hankerson is already gone and Roddy White could be a candidate to be released in the off-season so Hardy could get the opportunity to play a bigger role in 2016. With very average separation skills and extremely limited playmaking ability however, it’s unlikely he ever makes a fantasy impact. If another owner saw upside in him due to the potential for increased playing time, I’d sell him in a blink.
Chris Harper, WR NE
Season Stats: one reception, 6 receiving yards, zero touchdown receptions
After signing with the Patriots as a rookie free agent, Harper was hyped by many in the dynasty community but nothing really happened for him in his first season in the league. He was on and off the team a couple times and active for just a handful of game, catching just one pass. A small receiver (5-foot-11, 175 pounds) with good quickness and change of direction skills, he needs to carve out a role as a slot receiver to become a fantasy asset. That’s not likely in New England. He’s a candidate to be cut by dynasty owners when the new class of rookies enter the league.
Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
Season Stats: 51 receptions, 664 receiving yards, six touchdown receptions
I have to admit that I wasn’t the biggest fan of Lockett coming out of Kansas State. I struggled to figure out if he had upside as a deep threat receiver or was just another undersized (5-foot-10, 182 pounds) but speedy (4.40 40-yard dash) college wide out that wouldn’t be able to transition his game to the NFL level. He’s obviously made the transition just fine.
With elite explosion off the line of scrimmage and the ability to separate at the top of his route, Lockett proved himself as a deep threat that could also make plays as a possession receiver. Although that’s usually an excellent combination that makes for a startable fantasy wide out, the fact that Lockett plays in a run-first offense that spreads the ball around hurts his fantasy usefulness. He’ll enter 2016 as a high-upside WR4/WR5 with the potential to put up WR2 numbers in spurts.
Tre McBride, WR TEN
Season Stats: two receptions, eight receiving yards, one touchdown reception
Although McBride has a good combination of size (6-feet-0, 210 pounds) and speed (4.41 40-time), the former William & Mary superstar slipped to the seventh round in the NFL draft due to average game speed and questionable route running. After getting cut and signed to the practice squad, he fought his way onto the field late in the year, catching two passes in week 16.
Despite his underwhelming rookie season, McBride still carries upside due to his great catch radius and ability to hold onto the football despite taking on contact. Even with that however, Kendall Wright and Dorial Green-Beckham being cemented in front of him on the depth chart will severely limit his short term upside.
Although he has the potential to contribute to dynasty owners as a WR3/flex play, McBride needs to become a more consistent route runner and the Tennessee offense is unlikely to support three wide receivers and a tight end any time soon. He offers nothing more than youthful depth for dynasty owners at this point.
Ty Montgomery, WR GB
Season Stats: 15 receptions, 136 receiving yards, two touchdown receptions
Montgomery showed flashes early in his rookie season as a gimmick receiver with some upside in the slot but missed a majority of the season with a high ankle sprain. The Packers were just starting to figure out how they wanted to use their quick-footed rookie when he went down to injury and head coach Mike McCarthy was designing ways to get Montgomery the ball through creative route combinations out of the slot which is encouraging.
The Packers have proven in the past that they can develop producers at receiver. Montgomery may have to split playing time over the next couple years but it’s not unreasonable to think he could take the same career path as Jordy Nelson, who was an understudy to Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and James Jones before becoming one of Aaron Rodgers’ primary pass catchers.
Keith Mumphery, WR HOU
Season Stats: 14 receptions, 129 receiving yards, zero touchdown reception
Mumphery got some playing time early in the year but proved that he lacks the quickness and separation skills to make an impact in the NFL. I’ve seen him rostered in a handful of leagues. He shouldn’t be except in the deepest of dynasty leagues.
J.J. Nelson, WR ARI
Season Stats: 11 receptions, 299 receiving yards, two touchdown receptions
A tiny wide out at just 5-foot-10 tall and 156 pounds, Nelson made a splash at the NFL combine by running a 4.28 40-yard dash. That speed translated to the field on Sundays as in a limited role as the Cardinals’ 4th/5th wide out, he averaged 27.2 yards per reception and even had a four catch, 142 yard, one touchdown game against the Bengals in late November.
Nelson may turn out to be only a deep threat due to his rounded routes and lack of size, but if anything happens to one of Arizona’s top three wide outs, he could put up WR3 numbers in stretches due to his eye popping speed and the Cardinals’ willingness to air things out. He should be considered quality end of the bench depth at wide out for dynasty owners.
DeVante Parker, WR MIA
Season Stats: 26 receptions, 494 receiving yards, three touchdown reception
Parker was a disappointment for the first half of his rookie season. Not because he didn’t look good, but because the disgraceful Miami coaching staff was hell-bent on keeping the talented rookie off the field. Even after Joe Philbin was fired, it took an injury to the very average Rishard Matthews for Dan Campbell to put Parker on the field regularly. He took his chance and ran with it.
Over the last six weeks, Parker was a dynamic downfield receiver, catching 22 passes for 445 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 14.08 fantasy points per game and scoring at least 12.7 fantasy points in PPR leagues in all but one game over that stretch. Displayed an impressive catch radius, high pointing and attacking jump balls while also showing great body control, he showed he has playmaking upside.
Parker’s potential is through the roof and his dynasty value is sure to spike throughout the offseason because of it. He has top-15 fantasy wide receiver upside and should be near the top of every dynasty owners’ “buy” list this offseason.
Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
Season Stats: none
I was never a fan of Perriman. A workout warrior, he posted impressive numbers in shorts leading up to the draft and appears to have the size (6-foot-2, 212 pounds) and speed (4.24 40-yard dash) to be a playmaker on Sundays. Every time I watched him leading up to the draft though, I saw a below-average route runner that was pushed around by physical defenders and a guy that struggled at times at catching the ball. Those are huge red flags.
While his speed offers upside as a big play threat and potential WR2 much like DeSean Jackson, Perriman’s weaknesses make me leery of investing too much in that upside. I don’t own him anywhere but if I did, I wouldn’t be expecting too much out of a wide receiver that has trouble running routes and catching the ball, isn’t proven against top tier talent, and has already missed an entire season to injury.
DeAndre Smelter, WR SF
Season Stats: none
Smelter is big (6-foot-2, 226 pounds) and physical. He’s a strong possession receiver, very good at attacking the football in jump ball situations, and is great after the catch. The problems lie in his below average speed and limited experience running the entire route tree. He also tore his ACL late in 2014 and missed his entire rookie season after being drafted by the 49ers in the fourth round.
All indications are that Smelter will be ready for 2016. The 49ers are in desperate need of help at wide receiver and he may be just what the doctor ordered – particularly if Anquan Boldin moves on in free agency. He should be rostered in all dynasty leagues and is an excellent target as a “throw in” in trade negotiations this offseason.
Devin Smith, WR NYJ
Season Stats: nine receptions, 115 receiving yards, one touchdown reception
Smith displayed eye popping burst off the line of scrimmage and a graceful stride while proving himself as a dynamic deep threat at Ohio State but that didn’t show up in the NFL during his rookie season. Instead, he missed six games due to injury and struggled to hold onto the ball when he was on the field.
When healthy, Smith looked like a round peg in a square hole, constantly running go routes in the Jets’ underneath passing attack. Even if he recovers from his late season ACL tear to be ready for the start of 2016, it’s unlikely New York’s offense suddenly starts pushing the ball downfield. Dynasty owners shouldn’t be reliant on him. He’s nothing more than a WR5 with high end WR3 upside at this point.
Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
Season Stats: 14 receptions, 161 receiving yards, three touchdown receptions
Strong was one of my favorite late first/early second round rookie targets last year, displaying adequate speed (4.44 40-time) for a guy his size (6-foot-2, 217 pounds), powerful route running and the ability to attack the ball on deep routes while in college. He appeared to be a good fit as a complement to the electrifying DeAndre Hopkins when he was picked early in the third round of the NFL draft but would no doubt need tie to develop.
A raw prospect in need of “coaching up”, he desperately needs refinement at the top of his routes. That should have happened during his rookie year. I fully expect a second year improvement and with an upgrade under center in Houston, could become a useful WR3/flex play. While it may take another year or two to recognize his full potential, Strong has WR2 upside. Dynasty owners should remain patient with his progression.
Kevin White, WR CHI
Season Stats: none
Another prospect I liked but was leery of coming out of college, White showed the size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), speed (4.35 40-time) and ability to make contested catches that I usually look for in a wide out but struggled with physical defensive backs and only really produced for one season in college. He didn’t end up on any of my rosters due to his high price tag during rookie draft season.
Now that White missed his entire rookie season with a stress fracture in his leg, that price tag seems to have dipped a bit. Considering he still carries WR1 upside, anybody able to snag him for a mid to late-first round rookie pick (or an equivalent player) should consider it a bargain. He’s a quality trade target going into 2016 for those that believe in his potential.
Next week, I’ll give out final grades to the 2015 class of rookie tight ends.
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- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
