Over The Hill: Veteran Defensive Backs to Trade Before the Fantasy Playoffs

They say “age before beauty”, and “another year older, another year wiser”. All I know is that this year, I got booted off my parents’ medical insurance when I gained more of that wisdom.

I know 26 is by no means “old” in any sense of the word. I still have to have my ID checked when ordering adult beverages, I just barely am able to rent a car by myself, and if I’m teaching on a day I’ve shaved my facial hair, I’m asked for my hall pass. It still dawned on me, though, that reaching one’s late 20’s is sort of the end of an era: you’re an adult (shudder).

The late 20’s — and more so the dreaded 30’s — also signal the downturn of an NFL player’s career. One study at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com found that the peak performance of defensive players falls on average between ages 25 and 28, depending on position. After that, it’s all downhill.

There are plenty of examples of aging players falling off the tables on our IDP fantasy teams because we didn’t get out early enough on them. Fortunately, if you’re a rebuilding team with aging veterans on your roster, Week 13 (before the fantasy playoffs, and most leagues’ trade deadlines) is the perfect point to sell those players.

Which veteran defensive backs should you trade before Father Time catches up to them?

Method

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

For the purpose of this piece, we’re only going to look at players turning age-28 or older that you can turn around into prospects or draft picks for your rebuilding team. This article can also be used for contending teams: if you’re fielding an offer to help push you over the top, these may provide some red flags to consider when weighing the future impact of these players.

Antoine Bethea, SS SF

Let no one ever say that San Francisco 49ers’ strong safety Antoine Bethea is anything but a juggernaut. Bethea started 119 games consecutively until a shoulder injury last October put him on injured reserve, and in that span he’s had seven seasons out of seven with over 80 total tackles (five with 100 or more). Injuries are not a concern for the 32-year old Bethea, it’s just the fact that he’s capitalizing on premium production situations at a point when his age could tip him into the IDP twilight.

As most would expect, Bethea’s fantasy production on a per-snap basis has been up-and-down over the last five years (he is a defensive back, after all). Looking at the graph below, it hasn’t been nearly as “up” as it seems. The spike in 2015 was due in large part to a silly amount of quarterback hits and sacks whose rates never normalized due to him only playing seven games; take out that year and he’s been stuck under 0.080 fantasy points per snap for two seasons. His stuff rate and passes defensed rate have both dropped precipitously in 2016 — likely just as Bethea’s own range and speed have.

A former sixth-round pick out of Howard, Bethea deserves applause for holding off the likes of fellow small-schooler (but second-round prospect) Jaquiski Tartt to this point. Tartt made a big impact last year and is nearly a carbon-copy of Bethea. He is the heir apparent, and with Bethea’s dead cap dropping to a paltry $1.25 million next year, he is a candidate for cut or trade. You should look to do the same.

Kurt Coleman, SS CAR

The Carolina Panthers’ secondary has gone from stalwart to Swiss cheese in 2016, and strong safety Kurt Coleman’s production has suffered as a result of that. Coleman rode the rising tide of the #KeepPounding defense last year to an 88-tackle, seven-interception season. In 2016, however, decreased pressure up front and a lack of quality cornerback play has reduced his impact potential.

Coleman hasn’t been much of a traditional strong safety to begin with. He has just a full-season average of under three stuffs per year, and a ludicrously high full-season pace of 4.5 interceptions annually. The problem with the latter rate is that that was propped up during a heyday season for the Panthers’ defense in 2015. He’s on-pace for three picks this year as well, but it’s a horribly unsustainable rate for a player playing up in the box and on a bad secondary. Coleman’s tackle rate has stabilized at his five-year average of 9.07%, but there could be drop-offs when middle linebacker Luke Kuechly returns to full health and better secondary pieces are procured.

Coleman is only 28, so he’s the spring chicken of this group. Still, his value is highly inflated by an incredible season last year and it’s entirely possible that the bubble bursts sooner or later. Trading him for upside and youth is the way to go.

Byron Maxwell, CB MIA

One of my favorite games to play over the past two years has been “Where in the World is Byron Maxwell Moving?” — feel free to hum that in your head to the tune of Rockapella. The Miami Dolphins’ cornerback was released by the Seattle Seahawks after getting burnt to a crisp in 2014, then signed with the Philadelphia Eagles and got completely roasted there. He was then traded to the Miami Dolphins this season, and has had a career resurgence. But how has it affected his fantasy outlook?

Maxwell’s interception rate has plummeted to a low point over the past four years (0.14%). His passes defensed rate has jumped back up from 1.10% in 2015 to 1.87% this year, which does indicate an improvement in coverage skills, but the big reason he’s been a strong fantasy player is a surge in tackle rate from 2013 to 2014’s 5.41% to 6.91% in 2015 to 2016. Perhaps that will sustain, considering he’s now a locked-in starting NFL cornerback, but any drop in tackle rate will make Maxwell useless for fantasy purposes.

The Dolphins already benched the nearly 29-year old Maxwell once this season for being terrible in the first three weeks of the year. They’ve shown a willingness to draft outside cornerbacks high in recent years, with 2016 second-rounder Xavien Howard their top cornerback of the future. Maxwell will be on the shortest of strings going forward, and no cornerback is a lock for long-term dynasty value. Trade him before he explodes in your face.

Reggie Nelson, FS OAK

Next season will find Oakland Raiders free safety Reggie Nelson entering his age-34 year. It seems impossible to believe, but Nelson hasn’t really ever had a down season in his 10-year career, averaging 75 combined tackles, 3.5 interceptions, and 9.7 passes defensed in a 16-game showing. He’s on-pace for right around that in 2016 to boot: 73 tackles, 4 picks, and 12 deflections. But times may be a-changing in Oakland.

In terms of total production, Nelson’s stats have survived, but even he has had dips in production from time-to-time. The graph below shows he’s followed up years above 0.080 fantasy points per-snap with a year below 0.065 fantasy points per-snap in the next one. This year’s “boom” is highly powered by a big passes defensed rate (1.22%), which has offset the fact that his tackle rate has dropped each of the last three years (8.38%, 7.01%, and 6.77%). With that kind of production floor slipping, Nelson’s consistency may come into question.

In addition, the Raiders signed Nelson to just a two-year deal this offseason. Next year, his cap hit is a solid $4.25 million, while his dead cap if cut is a whopping $0. The Raiders could look to save a little money by cutting the aging veteran, especially if they draft a safety early to pair with 2016 rookie Karl Joseph. Nelson is a great win-now player, but not one you should bank on for 2017 and beyond.

[/am4show]