Lineup Advice: Week 17 & Summary

Jeff Haverlack

That’s a wrap!

Most leagues are now finished but some of you may play through week 17 and for you, we’ll keep the lights on with this article for one last week.

When I started with this lineup advice column four years ago (if I remember correctly), I fully expected that it would grow in popularity and in this growth, my ability to  perform, keep up even, would be pressured.  Get to know me personally and you will understand that I take great pride in my work and my results.  But with something like lineup advice, no amount of research and/or desire can guarantee perfect accuracy.  I often wondered if this very fact would give this piece a short shelf-life, due both from my own high expectations and the weight of advice that didn’t pan out.  Thankfully, I’m happy to say we’ve gotten on pretty  well.  You’ve been very respectful when I was on the wrong end of a decision as well as generous in offering praise when we made the right call.  I thank you for both.

To those of you now done, I hope your season ended well and that you found this weekly article helpful.  For those whose teams did not perform quite up to expectations, you’ll want to stick with us as we turn out attention to 2017.  Even if your team brought home the championship trophy, do not spend too much time looking back.  Fortune favors those who best prepare and, fortune, she is a fickle mistress.  Take a day to admire and celebrate your work and then get back to chopping wood.  After all, as you know all to well, here at DLF – There is NO off-season!

When reviewing 2017, I can’t say there has been a year quite like it.  I’ve experienced it myself with results far below my own expectations almost across the board.  But I have also heard it from so many  just how miserable a season this was.  Even in this article here, I noted many quotes of astonishment that a team made the playoffs or was in the championship game.  On the other side of the coin were those with seemingly invincible lineups that fell short of the playoffs.  

It was, indeed, just that type of season!

As we close out this last week of the regular NFL season, ride along with me as I do a bit of a brain dump about what went wrong in 2016 which affected my advice (and your teams) and what went according to plan.  To be sure, there were generous helpings of both this year.

What went right …

When offering lineup advice and doing the research that I do with each and every question, you come to appreciate the names that make the job easier.  Following a trend is something that usually pays dividends which then allows me to focus more time on the match-up of each player in question.  Some of these names below are mentioned for obvious reasons!

  • For all intents and purposes, quarterbacks performed as expected.  We see the standard names such as Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck in the top five.  Even Tom Brady, without four weeks to start the 2016 campaign, sits at the QB21.  Forecast his average to a full 16 game season and he’s in the top four
  • Dak Prescott!
  • David Johnson will be a frequent name in championship lineups.  He was the run-away RB1.
  • Le’Veon Bell, like Tom Brady, missed games to start the season but still ended up as the overall RB3.
  • Ezekiel Elliott – Expect to read a lot of ‘analysis’ now about running backs being drafted by teams with effective offensive lines.
  • Devonta Freeman continued to run as a RB1 and DeMarco Murray rewarded owners with his new team (Titans) with RB1 production as well.
  • LeGarrette Blount proved that he should be started every week in that offense.  He was easy to stay on when coming up in questions.  2017?  Not so sure.
  • Jordan Howard showed why you don’t have to be a first round pick to provide significant production at running back.
  • For the most part, I always preach to “start your studs”.  Thank you to Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans for making my job easy.
  • Larry Fitzgerald continues to produce even at 33 and rewarded owners with great production, at least until very late in the season.  Is he back for one more?
  • Rookie receiver Michael Thomas proved why you have to believe in highly drafted rookies in good systems with a known quarterback.
  • Think the Chiefs are happy with fifth round rookie sensation, Tyreek Hill?  Fantasy owners sure are and DLF was early to the party in suggesting you nab him off of waivers.
  • Tight end Travis Kelce finally is a top-five player at the position and, in fact, should finish as the TE1.  I like the automatic starts each week.
  • Welcome back Jimmy Graham!  He was inconsistent down the stretch and caused me (and affected owners) some angst, but we’re pleased to see him back in the top five.
  • Every year brings new tight end talent  to the top ten in the position and this year, Cameron Brate was 2016’s version of Gary Barnidge.
  • Honorable mention goes out to tight ends Jack Doyle, C.J. Fiedorowicz and Hunter Henry for showing well, too.

What went wrong …

“Never bench your studs” was seriously challenged in 2016.  Now the question will have to be:  “When is a stud a stud only in name based on previous production?”.  It’s a completely valid question and one that is so difficult to answer in lineup advice when week-over-week performance isn’t there but all history suggests it should be, again, soon.  How quickly we move away from the old adage can save a season.  If it were only so easy to make that call.

  • Deandre Hopkins, you’ve been Osweilered.  Brutal year for fantasy owners.  Major props to him for not losing it to the media.  But more than I can recall in any other year, poor quarterback play affected top name receivers and running backs.
  • If your name is Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant or Allen Hurns you made me look bad on countless occasions.  See the note above about quarterback play.
  • Same goes for Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, TJ Yeldon and Matt Forte’.  To my credit, I was one of the few NOT on the Lamar Miller bandwagon to start the season.
  • The injury bug bit hard and often this year:  Adrian Peterson, Giovani Bernard, C.J. Anderson, Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls, Melvin Gordon, Matt Jones, Jamal Charles, A.J. Green, Eric Decker, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas, Zach Miller, Tyler Eifert, Tony Romo and late season breaks of Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota.
  • Mark Ingram – I still cannot figure out when to play you and when not to.  He’s one of the select few that patterns and trends seemingly have no impact on his next-week performance.  Honorable mention goes to Tavon Austin.
  • Marvin Jones, you teased me early and had me revisiting the well on multiple occasions.  What will you be in ’17?  Don’t mind me if I’m not drinking the Kool-aid again.
  • I’m not including Robert Griffin III with all the other injured players because he brings it upon himself.
  • There’s a special place in fantasy hell for championship week duds:  Larry Fitzgerald, Demaryious Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordan Matthews, DeMarco Murray, Latavius Murray, Jeremy Hill and Zach Ertz
  • Coby Fleener looked like a sexy pick in fantasy to start the year, he just didn’t pan out.
  • Not sure if there is any tight end more frustrating than Eric Ebron.  In that offense with that talent, he should be so much better.  I finally just had to forget his name but it took far too long.

Well, that’s a wrap for 2016.  I’m still here for you if you need me for one last game.  Finish strong, every win counts and goes a long way toward proving your character as a coach.  Never mail it in on your league.  Your commissioner and fellow players deserve wire-to-wire performance, regardless of your record.

If you’d like to hit me up on Twitter, please do: @DLF_Jeff

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’nocomment’ user_error=’nocomment’ ][/am4show]

jeff haverlack